political what-ifs

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

I've always been interested in exploring alternate history scenarios. I wish history was a separate sub-forum because the purpose of this thread is not to spark political debate but to examine possible outcomes of events had they gone differently than recorded. Ask how, or write how you think history might have played out differently had certain political events unfolded differently. In referencing events as they actually played out, I will use the term "prime timeline".

I will start:

-Dukakis is elected in 1988. How do the next four years play out differently? Is he a two-termer or a one-termer like George Bush in the prime timeline? Do we still go to war in the Persian Gulf? Does Clinton still become President in the 90s? What are the lasting consequences and how does history look different up to the present day?

-The American Revolution doesn't happen, but instead an agreement is reached granting the colonies more autonomy on the condition they remain subjects to the King. How does American history play out differently?

-Giuliani runs against Hillary in the 2000 NY Senate race. Does she still win? Does she still run for President in 2008? does he do better or worse than he did in the prime timeline when he eventually runs for president?

-Wesley Clark, rather than John Kerry, is democratic nominee in 2004. Does the election play out differently than in prime timeline?

-Gore wins 2000 election.

-McCain wins 2000 primary against Bush.

-McCain wins 2008 election against Obama.

-Lincoln decides to stay home on the night of April 14th, 1865, therefore never being shot by John Wilkes Booth.

-Nixon wins against JFK in 1960.

-RFK is not assassinated in 1968. Does he go on to win the primary? If so, does he defeat or lose to Nixon?

-Andrew Jackson dies in a duel before ever running for President. How do the 1800s pan out without a Jackson Presidency?

 

[ceecee]

I always wonder about RFK. I mean he died before I was born but after talking to people alive at the time and reading, I have no doubt he would have been elected.

lol at incremental change instead of the American Revolution.

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

I think RFK would probably beat Nixon, assuming he won the primaries and the nomination. There were only a handful of states holding primaries back then, and he'd still have to have gotten enough delegates on his side at the convention. Humphrey was weak going into the election because he was closely associated with the least popular aspects of the Johnson administration, whether or not that was a fair association for people to make. Even with his unpopularity, it was a close election against Nixon. RFK would have done at least as well as Humphrey did. Some people would vote for him purely as a sympathy vote, due to the association with his fallen brother. He'd have done slightly better with the youth vote, as he would be seen more as an outsider, and had become vocally critical of the Johnson Administration's actions in Vietnam.

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

Oh here's a good one. King is not assassinated in 1968, and also decides to run for President that same year with Dr. Benjamin Spock as his VP nominee (this was actually considered by King before he decided he could do more outside of politics). Does this split the democratic vote?

 

[The Cat]

Finally. The Political Thread Typology Central Needs. Subscribed.

I've always wondered what it would have been like had settlers integrated with the native tribes rather than manifest destiny.

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

Finally. The Political Thread Typology Central Needs. Subscribed.

I've always wondered what it would have been like had settlers integrated with the native tribes rather than manifest destiny.

In the early days, this was not uncommon. Triracial communities sometimes formed, consisting of freed blacks or runaway slaves, Europeans who couldn't handle the strict, shitty conditions at early settlements, and natives who took them in.

Honestly, had the French won the French and Indian War and driven the British out of North America, we might have seen less of the manifest destiny rhetoric gaining popularity. The French west of the colonies were less interested in forming permanent settlements than they were with trading with the natives and establishing an economic foothold. They were probably the least brutal of the major European powers in North America at the time.

 

[The Cat]

In the early days, this was not uncommon. Triracial communities sometimes formed, consisting of freed blacks or runaway slaves, Europeans who couldn't handle the strict, shitty conditions at early settlements, and natives who took them in.

Honestly, had the French won the French and Indian War and driven the British out of North America, we might have seen less of the manifest destiny rhetoric gaining popularity. The French west of the colonies were less interested in forming permanent settlements than they were with trading with the natives and establishing an economic foothold. They were probably the least brutal of the major European powers in North America at the time.

I just imagine everything would be some much cleaner and more green too y'know?

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

I just imagine everything would be some much cleaner and more green too y'know?

Probably. Would be interesting to see history play out had a triracial nation of people descended from europeans, africans, and natives eventually formed in north america.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Actually there are pretty decent youtube channels on this topic.

 

[Virtual ghost]

What if humans never spread to the other continents before the start of history ?

What if Roman empire survived ?

What if Christianity never became a thing ?

What would happen if China didn't became so isolationist at one point ?

What would happen if colonialism was more humane ?

What if WW1 didn't start in Bosnia ?

What would be if Axis powers won the WW2 ?

What would happen if Mao and Stalin were smarter people ?

What would be if EU was started in 15th century ?

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

What if humans never spread to the other continents before the start of history ?

Not sure, but the chances of human survival would've diminished somewhat. I assume you are referring to homo sapiens. In this case, if Homo Sapiens never migrates out of Africa, Neanderthal humans may have faced less competition and survived a bit longer than they did.

What if Roman empire survived ?

I assume you mean the western empire? Or the eastern empire? If the Eastern empire survived past 1453, then there may have been less of a push for European powers to find sea routes, as they could still have passed through Constantinople for trade. So maybe the colonization of the Americas and Africa would've happened a little later than it did in our timeline. If the western empire never fell--that's tougher and I'll have to think about that one some more.

What if Christianity never became a thing ?

Then much of southern and eastern europe would've eventually been taken into the sphere of islamic culture. The northern parts would still be pagan, or would currently be practicing some modernized form of the old pagan traditions. Without the Catholic church and eventual rise of protestantism, there would not have been as many religious exiles/pilgrims leaving for north america, unless of course they were pagan exiles fleeing from the islamic culture.

What would happen if China didn't became so isolationist at one point ?

This is a good one. they could've formed a military and economic empire that would've matched and likely exceeded those of the most powerful European powers during the 15th and 16th centuries. They may have eventually colonized parts of western North America, eventually coming into conflict with the British, Spanish, Russians and the French. What is now the western USA might be a very different place, either a part of the Chinese empire, or eventually gaining independence as an independent nation of Chinese Americans. They would likely have settled or built outposts along the eastern coast of africa, and they would control much of the pacific, which would mean reduced european activity in the pacific.

If something like the second world war still happened in this timeline, then it would likely be between Britain and China as the two primary players, rather than fought with Japan. Assuming Britain still colonized north america and the americans still gained independence, the USA might be sharing the region of the lower 48 states with the aforementioned chinese satellite state. These two states would likely join the larger world conflict, vying for control of north america with Britain and mainland China backing either of them.

What would happen if colonialism was more humane ?

What if WW1 didn't start in Bosnia ?

What would be if Axis powers won the WW2 ?

What would happen if Mao and Stalin were smarter people ?

What would be if EU was started in 15th century ?

I'll get to the rest of these later

 

[Virtual ghost]

I assume you mean the western empire? Or the eastern empire? If the Eastern empire survived past 1453, then there may have been less of a push for European powers to find sea routes, as they could still have passed through Constantinople for trade. So maybe the colonization of the Americas and Africa would've happened a little later than it did in our timeline. If the western empire never fell--that's tougher and I'll have to think about that one some more.

Survival without a split.

Then much of southern and eastern europe would've eventually been taken into the sphere of islamic culture. The northern parts would still be pagan, or would currently be practicing some modernized form of the old pagan traditions. Without the Catholic church and eventual rise of protestantism, there would not have been as many religious exiles/pilgrims leaving for north america, unless of course they were pagan exiles fleeing from the islamic culture.

That is the catch, over the centuries the things would go so differently that there surely would not be Islam in the moment when it was created. Since the entire history of the world would take a number of different turns in the meantime. Especially since the whole Roman empire thing would play out differently without Christianity in the mix.

This is a good one. they could've formed a military and economic empire that would've matched and likely exceeded those of the most powerful European powers during the 15th and 16th centuries. They may have eventually colonized parts of western North America, eventually coming into conflict with the British, Spanish, Russians and the French. What is now the western USA might be a very different place, either a part of the Chinese empire, or eventually gaining independence as an independent nation of Chinese Americans. They would likely have settled or built outposts along the eastern coast of africa, and they would control much of the pacific, which would mean reduced european activity in the pacific.

If something like the second world war still happened in this timeline, then it would likely be between Britain and China as the two primary players, rather than fought with Japan. Assuming Britain still colonized north america and the americans still gained independence, the USA might be sharing the region of the lower 48 states with the aforementioned chinese satellite state. These two states would likely join the larger world conflict, vying for control of north america with Britain and mainland China backing either of them.

They had much better ships and more men back in a day as far as I can tell. If they pushed the issue I am fairly sure they would win pretty much all fights. What implies complete rewriting of world's history for the last 500 years.

 

[Falcarius]

What if France won Napoleonic Wars?

What if the Axis won WWII?

What if Israel lost the 1948 Arab–Israeli War?

What if USSR won Cold War?

What if Al-Qaeda / ISIS/ Taliban won War on Terror?

 

[ceecee]

What if Al-Qaeda / ISIS/ Taliban won War on Terror?

lol The Taliban did win the war in Afghanistan. ISIS/Al Qaeda never actually lost but their odds of a comeback win have increased significantly.

We Lost the War in Afghanistan. Get Over It. – Foreign Policy

 

[Virtual ghost]

lol The Taliban did win the war in Afghanistan. ISIS/Al Qaeda never actually lost but their odds of a comeback win have increased significantly.

We Lost the War in Afghanistan. Get Over It. – Foreign Policy

I had exactly the same thought, although I would even dare to say that exactly the same works for cold war as well.


Actually a few years ago I had a creative moment in trying to picture western blindness on this issue. So if we are going to talk about political "what ifs" .... what if cold war never actually ended ?

For me this thread is so short sighted that I just have to react, since I am obviously observing things differently than everyone else here. As I said already, the biggest problem of the West isn't Islam and it probably wouldn't be alt-right either, since "the reds" managed to reorganize themselves.

To be honest here is how I picture the American debate on that issue ... since I feel really creative today.


X: OMG,OMG the ex KGB agent just took over the Kremlin!
Y: Relax, the cold war is over and we won, remember ?


X: OMG,OMG the economy of China is growing 5 times faster than ours!
Y: The United States rules this world now and nothing can change that.


X: OMG, OMG Russia started to sell oil to China on a massive scale!
Y: So what ?
X: It turned out that Russia has more oil than Middle East !?
Y: Do you really think that those primitive commie minds can figure out how to get all that stuff out of the ground !?


X: OMG, OMG Iran is developing nukes !
Y: So what, we will bomb them over the weekend and that is it.
X: We can't, Russia just sold them the ultra advanced anti air systems.
Y: Ok, ok we will figure out something.


X: OMG, OMG I was just at the mall and pretty much everything there is made in China !?
Y: That is ok, I am pretty sure that these are just products of our companies that do business there.


X: OMG,OMG Russia is developing ultra fast missiles that can penetrate our defenses !
Y: Fake news.


X: OMG, OMG we owe trillions to China !
Y: I am sure that once we throw this incompetent black guy out of the office the situation will sort itself out quickly.


X: OMG,OMG the Russia just annexed Crimea !?
Y: They annexed Crime what !? I don't care about this.
X: But they threatened to Nuke us if we try something !?
Y: Then we will leave them be, they are regional power now smartass.


X: OMG, OMG the Russians are interfering into our war in Syria !?
Y: We are the most wealthy nation on Earth and I am sure they will bankrupt themselves with this.
X: But they are doing this for 2 years now !?
Y: And we are still stronger side.
X: But their guys are winning there !?


X: OMG, OMG the China is mass buying the high tech industry of Germany and their banks !
Y: Germany is our very close ally and I am pretty sure they know what they are doing.


X: OMG, OMG did you saw the new attack in Afghanistan !?
Y: Yeap, we lost a lot of good men today. But they will be avenged I assure you.
X: I am sure, however there are days when I wonder how even after 15 years they still have the ammo for something like this !?


X: OMG, OMG China plans to invest hundreds of billions into green energy around the world to make countries more independent from us !
Y: Green energy is a hoax and this proves it.
X: But if it is a hoax then why are they investing so much into it !?
Y: Just STFU about the environmental stuff already.


X: OMG, OMG Russian banks and pressures are turning our east European allies against us !
Y: If this is true then Fox would make a story about it.


X: OMG, OMG China just bought half of Africa !
Y: Their problem, there is nothing but Niggaz there. After all they are expanding through state spending and that has to fail.


X: You know, the internet is surely full of viruses and questionable information lately !?
Y: Well, it is probably just some smart kid that wants to be famous when they catch him eventually.


X: OMG, OMG the North Korea is making nukes and wants to use them against us !
Y: So we will bomb them just like everybody else !?
X: Just as we bombed Iran ?
Y: As the greatest nation on Earth I am pretty sure we will figure out something.


X: OMG OMG the Russians interfered with our elections !??
Y: I am sure it's nothing, since those pussy Dems simply can't handle the fact that they lost.



In my part of the world we call this kind of behavior "Denial".

 

[Lark]

lol The Taliban did win the war in Afghanistan. ISIS/Al Qaeda never actually lost but their odds of a comeback win have increased significantly.

We Lost the War in Afghanistan. Get Over It. – Foreign Policy

The US losing at low intensity warfare is like when England loses to the Germans at football or Rugby to the Irish or Cricket to Australia or India.

Only much more grave.

 

[Falcarius]

lol The Taliban did win the war in Afghanistan. ISIS/Al Qaeda never actually lost but their odds of a comeback win have increased significantly.

We Lost the War in Afghanistan. Get Over It. – Foreign Policy

While it is a reasonable point, it is hard to call either them a true loss so it is more like pyrrhic victory. For example, the invasion of Afghanistan was a success in that it led to destruction of al-Qaeda and Taliban militant training camps, fall of the Taliban government, and death of Osama bin Laden. What the true objective after the invasion is debatable so it is hard to quantify a victory.

It is also made harder quantifying still when it is a terrorist organisation not a nation state; for example, in the case of the IRA they had to accept as Northern Ireland as being part of the UK and Irish Constitution was also amended to implicitly recognise Northern Ireland as part of the United Kingdom's sovereign territory. But people in dissident republican splinter groups ague that no only The Troubles never ended but they never lost. Terrorist organisations can evolve indefinitely.

If ISIS comes back it is most likely because Trump makes idiotic decisions like giving Turkey a free-pass to do what the hell it likes.

 

[ceecee]

While it is a reasonable point, it is hard to call either them a true loss so it is more like pyrrhic victory. For example, the invasion of Afghanistan was a success in that it led to destruction of al-Qaeda and Taliban militant training camps, fall of the Taliban government, and death of Osama bin Laden. What the true objective after the invasion is debatable so it is hard to quantify a victory.

It is also made harder quantifying still when it is a terrorist organisation not a nation state; for example, in the case of the IRA they had to accept as Northern Ireland as being part of the UK and Irish Constitution was also amended to implicitly recognise Northern Ireland as part of the United Kingdom's sovereign territory. But people in dissident republican splinter groups ague that no only The Troubles never ended but they never lost. Terrorist organisations can evolve indefinitely.

If ISIS comes back it is most likely because Trump makes idiotic decisions like giving Turkey a free-pass to do what the hell it likes.

My barometer is how a group is approached by other countries. In this case, the Taliban has been invited to talk peace internationally, including the US (not the lying bullshit Camp David thing, the actual conferences). As long as there is foreign occupation, there will be no peace in Afghanistan. I see the Taliban less like the IRA and more like Hezbollah - a terrorist organization turned into a political party in Lebanon. They hold 12 seats in parliament and 2 in the cabinet.

As far as ISIS/Al-Qaeda is concerned, there are thousands of them now running free. The entire world knows exactly who to blame the next time there is an attack, claimed by ISIS in their country and that likelihood is huge. So all the lives lost, all the money spent, all the trust now obliterated by one single person - I certainly hope the troops, the parents of dead servicemembers and western allies are not stupid enough to support this mountain of shit and his administration for another second.

 

[The Cat]

I often wonder what politics would be like if they paid minimum wage. Still a job that needs doing, but it pays the same as a regular grunt minimum wage gig.

 

[Virtual ghost]

I often wonder what politics would be like if they paid minimum wage. Still a job that needs doing, but it pays the same as a regular grunt minimum wage gig.

That is easy: EVERYBODY would be in "special interest groups".