Cold war 2.0

Virtual ghost · Mar 21, 2024

Virtual ghost · Mar 21, 2024

Putin’s going nowhere. The West needs to get a grip.

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Virtual ghost · Mar 21, 2024

However this is long term project. This will take 10 to 20 years, or even longer.

SensEye · Mar 21, 2024

Red Herring said:
On top of that, team blue being militarily "superior" to team red does not imply that a potential war would be over soon or wouldn't cause an enormous number of casualties. Some tend to forget that. Germany vs world was doomed from the start but, heck, it took a lot of time and e whole lot of blood.

That was a quite a bit different though. WW2 Germany had a massive war machine. They were a handful.

If Ukraine was just getting more ammo (and some equipment) Russia would be either in a stalemate or getting pushed back just by them. And don't even get me started on how overrun Russia would end up if their opponent had an air force/air superiority (which NATO does). It wouldn't even be a contest.

Virtual ghost · Mar 21, 2024

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The Cat · Mar 22, 2024

SensEye · Mar 22, 2024

Beau was making too much of this, it's just political theatre. Hamas wouldn't agree to releasing hostages (I suspect) for a temporary cease fire. In any event, I see it's dead in the water already as China/Russia vetoed it.

Virtual ghost · Mar 23, 2024

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Virtual ghost · Mar 23, 2024

National parliament voting intention - Croatia

Something was telling me that the analysts will get it wrong. Since this isn't really politically correct country where people worship law and order. Over last few days the left called supreme court a bunch of gangsters that work for center right. They said that they don't care too much about the constitution and they don't mind openly braking it. As a matter of fact they also said that we need completely new constitution and new republic. Since everything that is going on is just pointless and corrupted by the center right. Also the lead figure of the left has said that the migrants are coming here to suck out our welfare state dry and that they will only be coming in larger numbers if something isn't done. Overall there was heavy controversy over the last week or so. However regardless of that the left is having a surge in the polls (red). When you take a look at the last few dots/polls the gap with center right (blue) is significantly reduced and the election day is just weeks away.

The reason for all of this is that the left never really became a vocal fan of western values. In other words at the core they have kept many Communist elements. Since the party is formal and legal continuation of the Communist party that came to power in WW2. What means that all of this is system shock. The conventional wisdom was that center right backed by EU mainstream will win this with ease and now that is coming into the question. Especially since it is unclear what the far right parties will do (orange and gray line in graph). They could go with center right but there isn't that much liking between them. While on the other hand both have sent some positive messages towards the left and got some in return. Therefore they could potentially form a coalition government on anti-system basis. After all the left has just turned down a coalition with the green progressives. Plus in Slovakia you already have left+far right government. So it isn't unthinkable that the same happens here if the lefts continues to grow. However this perhaps opens the path for coalition of center right, their satellites and the green-progressives.

Plus it seems that someone just soot at the car of main public prosecutor. His removal from office is one of the main talking points of the left's campaign.

As I said: all bets are off.
This is going to be elections outside of conventional wisdom. Since geopolitical alliances will determine the combinations (instead of political labels).