Cold war 2.0

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Long story short:

In the case that we have fully united and fueled NATO I would be willing to play more aggressively with Russia. However with Trump looming on the horizon, EU having a fair share of it's pro-Russia people, generally bad state of economy ... I don't think it is smart to escalate the story too much (if that can be avoided).

If US fully starts to walk away from Ukraine the scenario that Europe goes into Ukraine with it's own troops to freeze the lines of conflicts is quite possibly the most that could be made out of the situation. If Allies fully continue to support and supply Ukraine the country can win this. However if the support isn't full then it is perhaps better that the conflict freezes (in the case that this can be done). Because if conflict goes further and support isn't full then Ukraine is likely to lose ground and that would lead to large refugee wave(s). So it is better to try stopping the war if that is possible to do under reasonable conditions.

It would be the best if there would be full support for Ukraine. However the real question is what to do if that stops being the case (and the trends are going exactly in that direction).

 

[Virtual ghost]

Ukraine updates: Zelenskyy and Rutte sign security deal

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

I don't know what the morale is like in the Russian military, but what are the odds of the Russians pulling a 1917? And would this even be beneficial for the rest of the world, if so?

 

[The Cat]

People are looking out for signs, but so far swan lake is not playing

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Scores killed trying to get food from an aid convoy during a chaotic scene in Gaza

I don't think this is defensible.

 

[Virtual ghost]

I don't know what the morale is like in the Russian military, but what are the odds of the Russians pulling a 1917? And would this even be beneficial for the rest of the world, if so?

The only way Russia will go into 1917 mode is if enough of it's troops die on the battlefield (just like in ww1). Therefore if the west struggles to supply Ukraine the odds of this scenario are pretty slim.

Plus from day one many in the west are actually wary of this scenario since in this case it is questionable who exactly will control 5500 of the nukes in the country. Thus if just 1% of those ends up in the black market you are in serious problems (and something like 10 to 20% of Russian federation are Muslims).


As I was saying all of this isn't nearly as simple as some would like it to be.

 

[SensEye]

You just don't seem to understand that if western forces start to destroy Russian forces the nukes will indeed start to fly.

We'll just have to disagree on this. I think it is just bluster. However, I understand the consequences of getting it wrong. Unfortunately, Putin knows that's how the west is thinking, so he'll just keep bluffing to get his way.

A foolish and weak approach by the west IMO. However, nobody listens to me so all I get is an opinion.

 

[Virtual ghost]

We'll just have to disagree on this. I think it is just bluster. However, I understand the consequences of getting it wrong. Unfortunately, Putin knows that's how the west is thinking, so he'll just keep bluffing to get his way.

A foolish and weak approach by the west IMO. However, nobody listens to me so all I get is an opinion.

To some degree he is surely bluffing. However if we really push him that can very easily change. As I said he wouldn't use the nukes as long as he thinks he can win without playing that card.


In my other posts lately I have explained why all of this isn't as simple as some would like it to be.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Europe’s Socialists scramble for ideas to fight far-right surge


In a way this is incredible. The people that made so many problems now don't know what to do.
It would be nice that you undo at least some deregulation that you have done over the years. That you don't defend mass immigration on pretty much every turn you get. That you throw out all members that are fairly openly pro-Russia (like you have thrown out Slovak red mafia, which is pretending to be some kinda of left). Also it would be nice that you aren't closing energy sources during current wartime. That you actually protect workers and farmers from too free trade. There is much more but doing just this would really go a long way.

 

[Virtual ghost]

EU presses countries to rescue drowning solar industry

China problems.




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[The Cat]

Dont knock MRE's they're delicious.​

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Europe’s Socialists scramble for ideas to fight far-right surge


In a way this is incredible. The people that made so many problems now don't know what to do.
It would be nice that you undo at least some deregulation that you have done over the years.

What kind of deregulation? The article doesn't talk about it too much.

 

[Virtual ghost]

We'll just have to disagree on this. I think it is just bluster. However, I understand the consequences of getting it wrong. Unfortunately, Putin knows that's how the west is thinking, so he'll just keep bluffing to get his way.

A foolish and weak approach by the west IMO. However, nobody listens to me so all I get is an opinion.

On the second thought:

I am just watching formation of the third pro Russia party in my local political landscape over the last month. Therefore to tell you the truth I think you are probably correct for the most part. We are indeed too careful and too politically correct about this whole problem. This has to be solved with force and without much hesitation (and what happens happens). Because otherwise we will evidently get lost in a maze of social constructs and nonsense. What is evidently Putin's plans for quite some time. We simply don't have the time for this crap.

 

[Virtual ghost]

What kind of deregulation? The article doesn't talk about it too much.

You can basically write a book as an answer to this question. Especially since around Europe policy isn't identical.
But in short it all comes down to few simple claims: Watering down socialized medicine and privatizing parts of it (what has risen costs), doing free trade deals that have erased plenty of safe and good jobs, pushing for more immigration that basically lowered wages in a number of places, agreeing to lower taxes on certain things, privatizing certain assets ... etc. In the case that these people are liberals all of this would be understandable. However from a social-democrat you should expect more if you are average Joe. So now they are shocked that in most EU member states they poll around 15% or lower (in some places they completely evaporated). Therefore my post was basically sarcasm about the obvious. Since it is obvious why they are polling so low for a main left wing block.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

You can basically write a book as an answer to this question. Especially since around Europe policy isn't identical.
But in short it all comes down to few simple claims: Watering down socialized medicine and privatizing parts of it (what has risen costs), doing free trade deals that have erased plenty of safe and good jobs, pushing for more immigration that basically lowered wages in a number of places, agreeing to lower taxes on certain things, privatizing certain assets ... etc. In the case that these people are liberals all of this would be understandable. However from a social-democrat you should expect more if you are average Joe. So now they are shocked that in most EU member states they poll around 15% or lower (in some places they completely evaporated). Therefore my post was basically sarcasm about the obvious. Since it is obvious why they are polling so low for a main left wing block.

Why do you think they did these things? Personal benefit in the form of kickbacks (or something similar) or ideological conviction?

 

[Virtual ghost]

Why do you think they did these things? Personal benefit in the form of kickbacks (or something similar) or ideological conviction?

It is probably a mix of those two, after all we are talking about Continent wide changes and thus you can't put everyone under the same roof and be correct in explanation. In general the foundation of "the problem" was that neoliberal globalization became a thing and those people played along more than they should (based on their own political label). It is kinda what happened in the US but to lesser extent. Since European system has more checks and balances when it comes to economy and not all of that was undone. But decent chunk certainly was.

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[The Cat]

 

[Virtual ghost]