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Cold war 2.0

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
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The problem with this is that this is US based opinion that is based on US standards. However the real question is should we judge the situation by US standards when we are thinking about large foreign powers. So here is something from today:


SIPRI: Military spending increases worldwide


In this article there is the graph of military spending for world's biggest spending powers. However there is one little problem with that. In other words China per capita has about 6 times less money than US and that is the problem of this methodology. Because the question is does the financial spending translates into military capacity equally. In other words wages in China are much much lower than in US. But the question is are their troops and engineers proportionally worse for the size of their income? The graph says that US spent 877 Billion $ on military last year. However if China has so much lower wages you can't really put sign of equality here. In other words if you multiply their military spending with that 6 from per capita numbers you get that their actual military spending is 1752 Billion $. What isn't all that surprising since they have 4.3 times larger population. The problem is that US is so much into raw Capitalism that the country is likely to miss real numbers and calculate how much everything is worth. What doesn't always translate into proportional effect. Since through lower wages and prices they can get much more for every $. What is especially the case if you judge the country that has basically become world's factory and thus they have plenty of engineers. Also China is spending on it's military in it's own currency. Thus how much that is in Dollars is basically a matter of made up conventions regarding exchange rate, rather than a physical fact. What means that you kinda mixing apples and oranges here. What can easily lead into some very false conclusions.


On the other hand why would China confront the US directly ? All they have to do is wait and US will destroy itself at this rate. The deficits are through the roof, good chunk of the infrastructure is bad and getting worse, there is some clear loss of global influence, education is generally bad, healthcare is bad, partisanship is bad, pubic safety is a problem in many places. So it is better just to wait, go slow, develop more trade routs ... and the odds are that the problem will solve itself. Since US is unstable country at this point and therefore once this cracks the military will as well.


So in the bottom line US has to wake up if the country doesn't plan to lose this global struggle. The numbers at face value and "patriotism" don't really provide the full picture. "We can't really be challenged" is a fantasy.
 

The Cat

The Cat in the Tinfoil Hat..
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The problem with this is that this is US based opinion that is based on US standards. However the real question is should we judge the situation by US standards when we are thinking about large foreign powers. So here is something from today:


SIPRI: Military spending increases worldwide


In this article there is the graph of military spending for world's biggest spending powers. However there is one little problem with that. In other words China per capita has about 6 times less money than US and that is the problem of this methodology. Because the question is does the financial spending translates into military capacity equally. In other words wages in China are much much lower than in US. But the question is are their troops and engineers proportionally worse for the size of their income? The graph says that US spent 877 Billion $ on military last year. However if China has so much lower wages you can't really put sign of equality here. In other words if you multiply their military spending with that 6 from per capita numbers you get that their actual military spending is 1752 Billion $. What isn't all that surprising since they have 4.3 times larger population. The problem is that US is so much into raw Capitalism that the country is likely to miss real numbers and calculate how much everything is worth. What doesn't always translate into proportional effect. Since through lower wages and prices they can get much more for every $. What is especially the case if you judge the country that has basically become world's factory and thus they have plenty of engineers. Also China is spending on it's military in it's own currency. Thus how much that is in Dollars is basically a matter of made up conventions regarding exchange rate, rather than a physical fact. What means that you kinda mixing apples and oranges here. What can easily lead into some very false conclusions.


On the other hand why would China confront the US directly ? All they have to do is wait and US will destroy itself at this rate. The deficits are through the roof, good chunk of the infrastructure is bad and getting worse, there is some clear loss of global influence, education is generally bad, healthcare is bad, partisanship is bad, pubic safety is a problem in many places. So it is better just to wait, go slow, develop more trade routs ... and the odds are that the problem will solve itself. Since US is unstable country at this point and therefore once this cracks the military will as well.


So in the bottom line US has to wake up if the country doesn't plan to lose this global struggle. The numbers at face value and "patriotism" don't really provide the full picture. "We can't really be challenged" is a fantasy.
yeah the US is the metaphorical house divided that cannot stand. All anyone has to do is patiently wait for the snake to finish eating its tail.
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
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yeah the US is the metaphorical house divided that cannot stand. All anyone has to do is patiently wait for the snake to finish eating its tail.

The things is that large internal struggles eventually have to spill into ALL relations with the rest of the world. However how places around the world react will dictate trade, need for military budget, size of deficits .... and many other things. Therefore if your house and your store are a mess that will evidently have an impact on your income and all of the "standard family problems". So if you see that your main competitors are killing each other around the house that is on fire, then the most logical move is just to observe, let them be, and develop yourself further.

So something has to be done about partisanship before things in the bigger picture run out of control. Since in that case neither blue or red side will actually win.
 

Red Herring

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Remember how I mentioned that German law has a scale for the treatment of suspected anticonstitutional activities/organisations? Firt you become a "Prüffall" (case for review) if there are indications a group might be anticonstitutional. Then in the next step you might be declared a "Verdachtsfall" (case of suspicion) if the suspicion against you is hardening. The last step is being declared "gesichert verfassungsfeindlich" or "gesichert rechtsextremistisch/linksextremistisch" (verified anticonstitutional or verified rightwing/left wing extremist".

Well, it took a while, but at least the youth orgasation of the AfD has now been declared "verified rightwing extremist" by the Verfassungsschutz (Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, our domestic intelligence agency).
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
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Remember how I mentioned that German law has a scale for the treatment of suspected anticonstitutional activities/organisations? Firt you become a "Prüffall" (case for review) if there are indications a group might be anticonstitutional. Then in the next step you might be declared a "Verdachtsfall" (case of suspicion) if the suspicion against you is hardening. The last step is being declared "gesichert verfassungsfeindlich" or "gesichert rechtsextremistisch/linksextremistisch" (verified anticonstitutional or verified rightwing/left wing extremist".

Well, it took a while, but at least the youth orgasation of the AfD has now been declared "verified rightwing extremist" by the Verfassungsschutz (Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, our domestic intelligence agency).

Yeah I saw that.
However the real question is what will be the consequence of that ? Just because something is unconstitutional that doesn't mean it will just go away.
 

Red Herring

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Yeah I saw that.
However the real question is what will be the consequence of that ? Just because something is unconstitutional that doesn't mean it will just go away.
It's all a long and complicated process if you play by the book. For starters, this legally justifies increased and more widespread surveillance of members and their communication by the intellgence agency.

The next and last step in the escalation process would be forbidding an organization, but the legal hurdles for that are extremely high. In 2017 an attempt to outlaw the neonazi party NPD failed because according to the supreme court the NPD is actively trying to dismantle the democratic system but is too weak to likely be successful so, according to the court's logic, forbidding them would be a disproportionate use of government force.
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
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It's all a long and complicated process if you play by the book. For starters, this legally justifies increased and more widespread surveillance of members and their communication by the intellgence agency.

The next and last step in the escalation process would be forbidding an organization, but the legal hurdles for that are extremely high. In 2017 an attempt to outlaw the neonazi party NPD failed because according to the supreme court the NPD is actively trying to dismantle the democratic system but is too weak to likely be successful so, according to the court's logic, forbidding them would be a disproportionate use of government force.

In other words nothing too big is likely to come out of this.


Germany — National parliament voting intention

I mean I am watching the polling average in Germany and AfD is just going up in the big picture. At this point they will almost surely surpass the greens, and even SPD is within the striking distance. So this is simply becoming too large chunk of the vote that you can just ban it or really control it down to the last detail.


Plus I will add that the other day some people on the far right and far left in my parliament decided to beat up the speaker of the parliament. However the safety corridor was made and he managed to escape in time. What left the incident at a lot of cursing and some "controversial" salutes. So yeah, down here it is already burning quite heavily. Since there is no German discipline in the whole mix. In the next EU parliament elections my far right should get something like 300% increase in seats when compared to 5 years ago (and that is only if polling numbers stay like they are).
 

Red Herring

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In other words nothing too big is likely to come out of this.


Germany — National parliament voting intention

I mean I am watching the polling average in Germany and AfD is just going up in the big picture. At this point they will almost surely surpass the greens, and even SPD is within the striking distance. So this is simply becoming too large chunk of the vote that you can just ban it or really control it down to the last detail.


Plus I will add that the other day some people on the far right and far left in my parliament decided to beat up the speaker of the parliament. However the safety corridor was made and he managed to escape in time. What left the incident at a lot of cursing and some "controversial" salutes. So yeah, down here it is already burning quite heavily. Since there is no German discipline in the whole mix. In the next EU parliament elections my far right should get something like 300% increase in seats when compared to 5 years ago (and that is only if polling numbers stay like they are).
I don't think you can extrapolate that AfD upswing indefinitely. They naturally oscillate between 10% and 15% nationally (much higher in the East) and are simply currently at the upper point of that curve. It is also normal for parties in power to lose and for the opposition to gain percentage points over the course of a term, so I'm not too worried. I am aware that these are uncertain times and one should never say never, but at least going by experience this is all within the range of "normal".
 

Virtual ghost

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Btw.


Poland — National parliament voting intention
As elections are getting closer the PiS is increasing it's lead. Plus Confederacy is now third and they can become a coalition partner of PiS.



Netherlands — National parliament voting intention
In Netherlands the anti-establishment right wing BBB party has just jumped into a clear lead above everyone else.



Slovenia — National parliament voting intention
SDS is getting close to the centrist GS. Leader of SDS was one of the first leaders globally to congratulate Trump on his 2020 victory.



Portugal — National parliament voting intention
The lead of center left over center right has really narrowed up. Plus far right is slowly but surely rising and now is in firm third position.


Etc.
 

Virtual ghost

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I don't think you can extrapolate that AfD upswing indefinitely. They naturally oscillate between 10% and 15% nationally (much higher in the East) and are simply currently at the upper point of that curve. It is also normal for parties in power to lose and for the opposition to gain percentage points over the course of a term, so I'm not too worried. I am aware that these are uncertain times and one should never say never, but at least going by experience this is all within the range of "normal".

Of course that they have some kind of maximum they can achieve. However even with current numbers this is no longer just some random fringe group of voters as it used to be. What means that you can't fully control them in strict fashion. That was my point. Plus like my far right they still probably have room to grow. There is a right wing wave across the EU and some of that will probably spill into Germany as well (and add to the current situation).
 

Virtual ghost

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Scholz’s new push for China port deal triggers row in German coalition

SPD foreign policy lawmaker Adis Ahmetović defended the deal that Scholz struck last year on the Chinese investment: "In my view, the 24.9 percent minority stake ... poses no threat to our critical infrastructure or to public order and safety."


And this little part basically says it all. SPD has recruited/accepted a certain pool of people from Eastern Europe that are all more or less closet Communists. Especially since they are pushing this whole Russia-China narrative. The very fact that SPD is pushing this against everyone else suggests that something fishy is going on here.




Russian spies targeted French MPs despite clampdown after Ukraine war

In short it is evident that there are certain moles in the system.
 
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