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2020 Democratic Party primary thread

Nicodemus

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Bloomberg is the wild card. See my predictions above about him at a contested convention
I do believe Bloomberg has enough sense to get behind any Democrat who emerges as the stronges candidate in the months ahead, as he has promised. Beating Trump is the main goal for all sentient beings, and although Bloomberg has a considerable ego of his own, he is not so egotistical as to risk four more years of disaster. I hope he exists the contest soon rather than later and spends his money on winning back Congress and killing Moscow Mitch.
 

Doctor Cringelord

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I do believe Bloomberg has enough sense to get behind any Democrat who emerges as the stronges candidate in the months ahead, as he has promised. Beating Trump is the main goal for all sentient beings, and although Bloomberg has a considerable ego of his own, he is not so egotistical as to risk four more years of disaster. I hope he exists the contest soon rather than later and spends his money on winning back Congress and killing Moscow Mitch.

If Bloomberg really wanted to see Trump defeated, he'd stay on the sidelines and make a large donation to the eventual nominee. I think at the moment he's more interested in defeating Bernie than he is in defeating Trump.
 

Virtual ghost

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To be honest there is a part of me that will laugh if at the end of this very long drama and all the stabs and attacks Klobuchar will take this. That woman is flying under everyone's radar and barely gets a mention (good or bad). While yesterday she got more than Biden and Warren combined (popular vote and delegates). What is also going generally unnoticed or is in "whatever sphere".



However her last name made it pretty obvious that she has roots very close to mine (the original is Klobučar). It is so close that her, Melania and me could all be very distant relatives from central Croatian-Slovenian border since this is all within less than 7 mile radius. As I said these parts have large diaspora in Midwest. (since climate, landscape and jobs are similar to "home")
 

Nicodemus

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To be honest there is a part of me that will laugh if at the end of this very long drama and all the stabs and attacks Klobuchar will take this. That woman is flying under everyone's radar and barely gets a mention (good or bad). While yesterday she got more than Biden and Warren combined (popular vote and delegates). What is also going generally unnoticed or is in "whatever sphere".



However her last name made it pretty obvious that she has roots very close to mine (the original is Klobučar). It is so close that her, Melania and me could all be very distant relatives from central Croatian-Slovenian border since this is all within less than 7 mile radius. As I said these parts have large diaspora in Midwest. (since climate, landscape and jobs are similar to "home")
If Klobuchar is the nominee, I fully expect Trump to win re-election. She has no charisma and even less ability to fake it than Hillary.
 

Virtual ghost

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If Klobuchar is the nominee, I fully expect Trump to win re-election. She has no charisma and even less ability to fake it than Hillary.


If you go through my posts form yesterday I am not giving her much chance either, nether I am a fan of that part of democratic party. Although the fact that she doesn't have the baggage of Hillary and that no one is really attacking her could make a difference. She should have been "done" for quite some time like other "little candidates" but that just didn't happen. Plus the crash of Biden will surely help her, since that is the same base basically.
 

ceecee

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If you go through my posts form yesterday I am not giving her much chance either, nether I am a fan of that part of democratic party. Although the fact that she doesn't have the baggage of Hillary and that no one is really attacking her could make a difference. She should have been "done" for quite some time like other "little candidates" but that just didn't happen. Plus the crash of Biden will surely help her, since that is the same base basically.

Well, she hasn't been doing what Warren has so no one is really noticing. I'm also not sure why people didn't expect her to do well in NH, Pete too. The state is about 94% white and Bernie has the most diverse coalition of supporters. Nevada will be a much different situation as far as non-white voters.

But for Elizabeth Warren to leave without a single delegate in the state right next to hers is embarrassing, worse than what happened in Iowa to the Democrats.

The one that made me laugh was James Carvelle getting hired by Michael Bennet then him promptly dropping out of the race. Not that anyone noticed he was still in. But it just goes to show that James Carvelle and the rest of the neoliberal establishment pundits can't even grasp what a coalition is - it's the reason they'll keep losing and becoming more obsolete.
 

Virtual ghost

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Well, she hasn't been doing what Warren has so no one is really noticing. I'm also not sure why people didn't expect her to do well in NH, Pete too. The state is about 94% white and Bernie has the most diverse coalition of supporters. Nevada will be a much different situation as far as non-white voters.

But for Elizabeth Warren to leave without a single delegate in the state right next to hers is embarrassing, worse than what happened in Iowa to the Democrats.


Well I just find it funny that after all the drama such "outsider" have totally beaten Biden and Warren. While at the same time there isn't really too much fuss about it. Nothing to see here approach.


Plus there are local sayings that you should take care yourself around Slovenian women, they know how to get what they want.



It was just a silly post from my side.
 

ceecee

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Well I just find it funny that after all the drama such "outsider" have totally beat Biden and Warren. While at the same time that doesn't really make too much fuss about it. Nothing to see here approach.


Plus there are local sayings that you should take care yourself around Slovenian women, they know how to get what they want.



It was just a silly post from my side.

I know, silly is fine. Amy (and Pete) are going to have to go talk to black and brown people now. Pete has a proven poor track record with them but Amy comes from a state that's 84% white sooo...just pointing out the facts here. Bernie already has many of those non-white voters. And NV is one thing, SC woooooooh boy.

It's hard to grasp this when you are from a majority white place but if black and brown weren't a threat, why so much work by so many (but not all) white people in the US to stop them?
 

Virtual ghost

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I know, silly is fine. Amy (and Pete) are going to have to go talk to black and brown people now. Pete has a proven poor track record with them but Amy comes from a state that's 84% white sooo...just pointing out the facts here. Bernie already has many of those non-white voters. And NV is one thing, SC woooooooh boy.

It's hard to grasp this when you are from a majority white place but if black and brown weren't a threat, why so much work by so many (but not all) white people in the US to stop them?


I know, things should change as more diverse states vote. If stories are true Pete invested most of what he has into the first two states, hopping to make a momentum out of nothing.
 

SearchingforPeace

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Bernie Sanders's Narrow Victory in New Hampshire - The Atlantic

....
In 2016, New Hampshire was Sanders’s best state, aside from his neighboring home of Vermont. He crushed Hillary Clinton with a commanding 60 percent of the total vote and built his broadest coalition in any state beyond Vermont. This time, Sanders’s coalition was both more narrow and more shallow. He dominated among younger voters, the biggest liberals, whites without a college degree, and men. But Sanders lost moderates (to Klobuchar and Buttigieg), adults ages 45 to 64 (to Buttigieg), and seniors (to Klobuchar). After comfortably winning somewhat liberal voters here four years ago, he split them about evenly with Buttigieg this time. Rather than expanding his coalition, Sanders depended on his most ardent constituencies.
....
 

SearchingforPeace

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Sanders Is The Front-Runner After New Hampshire, And A Contested Convention Has Become More Likely | FiveThirtyEight

....
But the two takeaways that the model feels most confident about are two things that I’m happy to vouch for:

Model takeaway No. 1: Bernie Sanders is the most likely person to win the Democratic nomination.
Model takeaway No. 2: The chance of there being no pledged delegate majority — which could potentially lead to a contested convention — is high and increasing.
...
 

Doctor Cringelord

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Exciting stuff. Conventions in my lifetime have all been coronation ceremonies. Would be great to see a real, nitty gritty fight for delegates.
 

Julius_Van_Der_Beak

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Lmao, the people who made the Trump memes in 2016, are the same people making the Yang gang, and Sanders memes. Thats just contrarian internet culture for you.

That should tell you something.

- - - Updated - - -

Exciting stuff. Conventions in my lifetime have all been coronation ceremonies. Would be great to see a real, nitty gritty fight for delegates.

I don't. Would be a disaster.
 

Julius_Van_Der_Beak

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Well, she hasn't been doing what Warren has so no one is really noticing. I'm also not sure why people didn't expect her to do well in NH, Pete too. The state is about 94% white and Bernie has the most diverse coalition of supporters. Nevada will be a much different situation as far as non-white voters.

But for Elizabeth Warren to leave without a single delegate in the state right next to hers is embarrassing, worse than what happened in Iowa to the Democrats.

I was pretty pro-Warren until that stuff about trying to paint Bernie as a white male oppressor a month ago. At this point, I'm rather happy with her flaming out.

The one that made me laugh was James Carvelle getting hired by Michael Bennet then him promptly dropping out of the race. Not that anyone noticed he was still in. But it just goes to show that James Carvelle and the rest of the neoliberal establishment pundits can't even grasp what a coalition is - it's the reason they'll keep losing and becoming more obsolete.

James Carville was so colossally wrong about 2016 that it should be obvious to anyone with a brain that he doesn't understand the contemporary political landscape. He didn't even have any suggestions about things Hillary should do differently.
 

Julius_Van_Der_Beak

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Bloomberg is the wild card. See my predictions above about him at a contested convention

But I don't see Bloomberg being popular with minority voters. There are a lot of stories circulating now (in mainstream sources) about his policies as mayor that aren't going to endear him at all. I also can't see anyone really getting behind him enough to emerge as the sole "anti-Bernie" choice.

The main issue, I think, will be Bernie wining a plurality vs. a majority (I think 538 is a very reliable source if you keep in mind the fact that it's like a weather forecast). The most likely thing is that Bloomberg plays a role in that, but I also think he's propped up by having lots of money and not much else. He can spend lots of money in Super Tuesday states, but he entered so late in the game and wasn't even part of Iowa and New Hampshire. I think it's too late to make a difference. Has anyone really pulled off much success with the "wait till Super Tuesday" model? What seems to be important are Iowa and New Hampshire. I think the best thing Bloomberg can hope for is to split influence between him, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar (maybe Biden if South Carolina props him up a bit). It's hard to say at this point what that would mean for the plurality vs. majority situation.
 

Doctor Cringelord

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But I don't see Bloomberg being popular with minority voters. There are a lot of stories circulating now (in mainstream sources) about his policies as mayor that aren't going to endear him at all. I also can't see anyone really getting behind him enough to emerge as the sole "anti-Bernie" choice.

The main issue, I think, will be Bernie wining a plurality vs. a majority (I think 538 is a very reliable source if you keep in mind the fact that it's like a weather forecast). The most likely thing is that Bloomberg plays a role in that, but I also think he's propped up by having lots of money and not much else. He can spend lots of money in Super Tuesday states, but he entered so late in the game and wasn't even part of Iowa and New Hampshire. I think it's too late to make a difference. Has anyone really pulled off much success with the "wait till Super Tuesday" model? What seems to be important are Iowa and New Hampshire. I think the best thing Bloomberg can hope for is to split influence between him, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar (maybe Biden if South Carolina props him up a bit). It's hard to say at this point what that would mean for the plurality vs. majority situation.

Right. He's a wild card. He won't do well enough to emerge as a frontrunner, but he might do well enough to make Bernie's path to clear frontrunner status a lot more difficult. Especially as long as Warren remains in the running, splitting the progressive vote, and as long as Tulsi continues to run, not really standing any chance of her own, but likely siphoning votes from former Bernie and Yang bros (why I'm probably going to vote for Sanders even if Gabbard is still in it by the time my primary comes, and despite the fact I'd been considering Warren).

Regarding late entries, I mean Iowa and New Hampshire weren't always all that important, and in the grand scheme, they don't provide a ton of delegates, so I think their importance is very overstated. RFK entered the 1968 race late in that year's primary, didn't even factor in to that year's NH contest. Yet prior to his assassination he was doing quite well in later primary states. Bloomberg seems to be adopting a similar strategy, totally ignoring Iowa and NH and instead funneling money and resources into upcoming states (many with higher delegate counts). Not to say he will do as well as RFK in 1968, but he might do better than anyone expects. Enough to throw a real wrench into the process. If he comes out of this with a large enough number of delegates, he can take that to the convention and affect the outcome for the other candidates. Even if he doesn't have enough to get himself nominated, it could still be a major factor in the eventual selection.

If all he cared about was defeating Trump and getting a congressional majority, I don't think he'd be running at all, he could just quietly make donations and publish Bloomberg hit/fluff pieces aimed at various candidates. He's in this to play a spoiler and I think he has a very clear strategy in mind, but not necessarily one that involves him emerging as the nominee.
 

Julius_Van_Der_Beak

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Right. He's a wild card. He won't do well enough to emerge as a frontrunner, but he might do well enough to make Bernie's path to clear frontrunner status a lot more difficult. Especially as long as Warren remains in the running, splitting the progressive vote, and as long as Tulsi continues to run, not really standing any chance of her own, but likely siphoning votes from former Bernie and Yang bros.

Regarding late entries, I mean Iowa and New Hampshire weren't always all that important, and in the grand scheme, they don't provide a ton of delegates, so I think their importance is very overstated. RFK entered the 1968 race late in that year's primary, didn't even factor in to that year's NH contest. Yet prior to his assassination he was doing quite well in later primary states. Bloomberg seems to be adopting a similar strategy, totally ignoring Iowa and NH and instead funneling money and resources into upcoming states (many with higher delegate counts). Not to say he will do as well as RFK in 1968, but he might do better than anyone expects. Enough to throw a real wrench into the process. If he comes out of this with a large enough number of delegates, he can take that to the convention and affect the outcome for the other candidates. Even if he doesn't have enough to get himself nominated, it could still be a major factor in the eventual selection.

OK... but RFK got himself shot. At the time that happened, did he have more delegates than anyone else, or what? I also know the nomination process was very different back that.
 

Doctor Cringelord

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OK... but RFK got himself shot. At the time that happened, did he have more delegates than anyone else, or what? I also know the nomination process was very different back that.

Fewer states held primaries at the time, but it looked like he had enough delegates to go to a contested convention. He was also quite popular with the youth vote who'd grown distrustful of the Johnson admin and didn't want VP Humphrey as the heir apparent

Nixon commented at the time that he expected PFK would win, and they'd be running against one another in the GE. A lot of people thought RFK was the most likely nominee prior to his death.
 

Doctor Cringelord

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Not to say Bloomberg and RFK are anything alike, just to point out why I think a late entry into the race can still be a contender.

I'd speculated last year that I expected there would be a very late entry into this race, one who might be the eventual nominee (shiny new object after people had been hearing from the other candidates for months and months). I don't see Bloomberg winning, but this race is forever changed with his entry.

With his constant ads, he's immediately created instant brand recognition too, something that took most of the candidates years to build. Never underestimate an ambitious plutocrat, even an unpopular one.
 
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