I sometimes watch this channel since it has plenty of polls and maps.
Any thoughts on this ? (because this is the actual "game board" of 2020)
To "game" these, here are some simple rules:
1. The off year election is informational, but rarely controlling. For example, no president Dole or Romney, even though the Republicans had huge gains in both 1994 and 2010.
2. If a state hasn't switched in a long time, if probably isn't likely to do so. Ex. Minnesota hasn't voted Republican since Nixon. It is often very close. Republicans try really hard to take it, but constantly fail. See also Arizona and Georgia for Democrats.
3. Local offices and lower federal offices are often local or personality driven. See Montana. Therefore, only marginally predictive. Louisiana has a Democratic governor and often has Democratic senators but it is not voting Democrat for president.
4. If Obama couldn't take a state, no 2020 Democrat will take the state.
5. If a state has gone to one party for 3 presidential elections, it will likely continue: Nev, Col, NH, and NM are no longer swing states, until they swing back at least once.
6. It is very important to campaign in one's own potential swing states more than going after some random prize: Az and GA are not yet ready to flip and Texas is a complete fantasy for the Dems. If Hillary had gone to Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania more than Arizona and Georgia, she might have won.
7. Personality matters, a lot. So does economy. Just because someone hates a candidate, it doesn't mean everyone else does. A lot of Republicans hated Obama, but he was a million times more likable than McCain or Mitt, even to Republicans. Hillary was loved by a very small group and hated by many, so she even lost to Trump.