Cold war 2.0

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Merz won the German election. Here’s what it means for Europe.

 

[Red Herring]

FDP seems to be out but the BSW might get in. It's still too soon to say.

Let me know if anyone is interested in a breakdown of who voted how and how voters migrated from one party to another (spoiler: so far there are very few surprises)

 

[Virtual ghost]

German election 2025: live updates

There are also some quite heavy words then it comes to foreign policy and global issues.
What openly suggests this is the start of new era.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Let me know if anyone is interested in a breakdown of who voted how and how voters migrated from one party to another (spoiler: so far there are very few surprises)

How many ballots still have to be processed ? All kinds of data is coming out but no where I see what is possibly the most important number in the terms of context. It is 20% 40% ?

 

[The Cat]

FDP seems to be out but the BSW might get in. It's still too soon to say.

Let me know if anyone is interested in a breakdown of who voted how and how voters migrated from one party to another (spoiler: so far there are very few surprises)

Requesting break down please.

 

[Red Herring]

How many ballots still have to be processed ? All kinds of data is coming out but no where I see what is possibly the most important number in the terms of context. It is 20% 40% ?

They are currently at 230 out of 290 districts being counted out.

 

[Red Herring]

I'll

Requesting break down please.

I'll summarize what I currently find here: https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deut...-daten-a-6ace92df-43cc-48de-b183-2c98c7c19c2f

For context: You have two votes - one for a direct mandate of a local representative and one for a party. The second one is more important since they recently reformed the system.

- There is a very clear East-West divide with the AfD being the strongest (second vote) party pretty much everywhere in the East and the CDU almost everywhere in the West.
- Young adults (18 -24) overwhelmingly lean left. Their favorite party is The Left at 25%. The CDU only gets 13% in this age group. The AfD is second strongest here but the left-ish parties all added together get 53% while the right-ish parties together get 39% (the rest is tiny fringe parties)
- The CDU is strongest among people over 60, even more so people over 70 years of age. The thing is we have a lot of old and few young people in this country.
- The AfD is weakest among seniors and strongest among those aged 35-44.
- There is, on average, a 3 percentage point gap between men and women (women tending to vote +3% on left and -3% on right wing parties)
- The more educated the stronger the support for smaller parties (other than CDU, AfD or SPD)
- People with higher education are only half as likely to vote AfD as people with little or moderate education. They are also pretty much the only ones who vote Green.
- Working class people overwhelmingly lean right. The CDU and AfD together get 59% in this demographic. The AfD is strongly favored by the working class at 38%, making it the strongest party among workers.
- Freelancers (who tend to be higher income) were twice as likely to vote FDP as the national average.
- Retirees were the least likely of all income groups to vote AfD.
- Among those who descrive their financial situations as "poor", the AfD got 39%. Among those describing their financial situation as "good" only 17. "Good" were twice as likely to vote Green and much more likely to vote CDU. Curiously the support for far-left parties like The Left and BSW wasn't all that different between income groups.

- The CDU got most of its new voters from former SPD voters and lost most to the AfD.
- The AfD mainly got its additionally won votes from former non-voters, but also from former CDU voters.
- The SPD mainly lost votes to the CDU.
- The Greens lost voters both to The Left and the CDU.
- The Left mainly gained former SPD and Green voters.
- The BSW (which might or might not enter partliament - still unclear at this point) mainly gained votes from non-voters as well as Left and SPD voters.
- The FDP mainly lost votes to the CDU and the AfD.

 

[Red Herring]

In 2021 the Greens and the FDP were the two most popular parties among young first time voters. This times around those numbers were absolutely crushed compared to the last election.

From 24 to 10% for the Greens and from 20 to 5% for the FDP! Talk about disappointed hopes.

The AfD used to almost have a monopoly on TikTok and other social media which helped a lot with the young vote. But the Left managed to make a sucessful counter offer and their main candidate Heidi Reichinnek has become a bit of an internet star.

 

[Red Herring]

They are currently at 230 out of 290 districts being counted out.

Make that 250 out of 299 (half an hour after my previous answer, so extrapolate from that if you want).

 

[Virtual ghost]

To be honest this puts my own pro business centrist liberals into very difficult position. Especially since they are intermixed politically with the FDP. Therefore as FDP is getting kicked out of the parliament that only adds onto the trend. Since my liberals got 0 seats in EU elections last year. While now it looks like they will get 0 seats in my own regional council as well. After all the last remains seem to be evaporating pretty much everywhere across the map. In other words today pretty much no one buys "the centrist" stuff. Either you vote for genuine right leaning party or you vote left to boost public services and human rights. With the crash of globalization the liberal centrism simply lost it's core point of existence (and therefore the place at the table).

 

[Virtual ghost]

Make that 250 out of 299 (half an hour after my previous answer, so extrapolate from that if you want).

Good, since that means that current results are fairly close to the final results.

I really hope that BSW doesn't make it. That should make things much easier on the long run.

 

[Red Herring]

Germany during the cold war:

Today's elections:

(this only shows the strongest second vote for each district)

 

[Virtual ghost]

German election 2025: Who is winning across the country

When you scroll down and take a look at who took various districts in 2021 and 2025 you get the real sense how much electorate changed. The SPD got obliterated on this level.


But yes, the east/west divide is super obvious from these maps (black vs. blue).
Exactly where the border used to be.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Odesa: Decolonization debate on the Black Sea

Speaking of the past.

 

[Red Herring]

For any Americans reading this:

Germany has a proportional election system. So this map all covered in black and blue does not mean that these two parties will get all the seats in partliament. It is NOT a winner-takes-it-all system!

There are 630 seats now which are mainly distributed proportionally based on national percentage share of second votes for each party. The first vote serves to determine who exactly these delegates will be. The electoral map only shows which party is strongest in each district, but with seven parties that doesn't always mean much.

This is what the new parliament will actually look like*:

Here is a propaganda poster from when Switzerland decided to introduce proportional voting in a referendum a little over a century ago:

("Justice lifts up a people - Swiss, on Oct. 23rd vote: Yes!")

*That one SSW seat refers to one direct seat won by the SSW party which represents the Danish speaking minority in the northernmost federal state of Schleswig-Holstein. Because it represents an ethnic minority (which is considered to be in the wider public interest) the party is excempt from the 5% hurdle rule. It is a mostly left/liberal party.

 

[Virtual ghost]

BSW: 4.972%

That was so close to 5% line when you get seats.
In other words their entering into the parliament would make sure that CDU and SPD don't have a majority. Since in current situation those seats will be spread to other parties.

I mean the 3 party coalitions are often unstable and the one that adds the greens into the mix would probably be one such case. What is simply bad outcome in the current global situation. If this is the final result Germany got lucky.

 

[Virtual ghost]

EU leaders in Kyiv on third anniversary of Russia's invasion

Zelnskyy hopes for collaboration with Germany after Merz victory​

This has to be one of the most awkward headlines I have seen in a while.


However it is kinda telling that Canadian PM is in the mix. That clearly shows where we are in the big picture.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Ok, we basically solved the election issue and therefore we should go back to more nasty topics.

 

[Red Herring]

BSW: 4.972%

That was so close to 5% line when you get seats.
In other words their entering into the parliament would make sure that CDU and SPD don't have a majority. Since in current situation those seats will be spread to other parties.

I mean the 3 party coalitions are often unstable and the one that adds the greens into the mix would probably be one such case. What is simply bad outcome in the current global situation. If this is the final result Germany got lucky.

Overall the organisation yesterday was smooth and swift, but there were some issues with mail ballots from abroad not getting to the embassies on time. Apparently Wagenknecht considers challenging the election because mathematically those people could have voted BSW in which case they might have saved her party. She was 13.456 votes short of the 5% hurdle. The matter is under investigation.