Random political thought thread.

[Red Herring]

If you want to find more, just walk through the house barefoot at night. You'll find ones you didnt even know you had.

I have two young kids and can confirm the stereotype is 100% accurate.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

I have two young kids and can confirm the stereotype is 100% accurate.

I remember that, too.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Polling averages


270 to win

Arizona: Trump +1
Georgia: Trump +2
Michigan: Harris +4.2
Nevada: Harris +1.6
Pennsylvania: Harris +1.7
North Carolina: Trump +0.8
Wisconsin: Harris +2.1




538

Arizona: Trump +0.5
Georgia: Trump +1.4
Michigan: Harris +2.4
Nevada: Harris +0.4
Pennsylvania: Harris +1.2
North Carolina: Trump +0.6
Wisconsin: Harris +1.8


Very very tight.

 

[ygolo]

Polling averages


270 to win

Arizona: Trump +1
Georgia: Trump +2
Michigan: Harris +4.2
Nevada: Harris +1.6
Pennsylvania: Harris +1.7
North Carolina: Trump +0.8
Wisconsin: Harris +2.1




538

Arizona: Trump +0.5
Georgia: Trump +1.4
Michigan: Harris +2.4
Nevada: Harris +0.4
Pennsylvania: Harris +1.2
North Carolina: Trump +0.6
Wisconsin: Harris +1.8


Very very tight.

If Kamala Harris gets some credit for getting Newsom to Veto CA SB 1047, citing the creation of new businesses in CA, I believe it would give a lot of credence to her "opportunity economy" message.

This is especially true in states that have strong R&D presence--like North Carolina (the research triangle), Arizona (Phoenix, Scottsdale), Nevada(Las Vegas), Georgia (Atlanta), Wisconsin (Madison), and even Texas(Austin and College Station)

 

[The Cat]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Polling averages


270 to win

Arizona: Trump +1
Georgia: Trump +2
Michigan: Harris +4.2
Nevada: Harris +1.6
Pennsylvania: Harris +1.7
North Carolina: Trump +0.8
Wisconsin: Harris +2.1




538

Arizona: Trump +0.5
Georgia: Trump +1.4
Michigan: Harris +2.4
Nevada: Harris +0.4
Pennsylvania: Harris +1.2
North Carolina: Trump +0.6
Wisconsin: Harris +1.8


Very very tight.

One week later


270 to win

Arizona: Trump +1.9
Georgia: Trump +0.6
Michigan: Harris +1.5
Nevada: Harris +2.4
Pennsylvania: Harris +0.1
North Carolina: Trump +0.2
Wisconsin: Harris +1.9


538

Arizona: Trump +1.1
Georgia: Trump +0.7
Michigan: Harris +1.8
Nevada: Harris +1.4
Pennsylvania: Harris +0.8
North Carolina: Trump +0.1
Wisconsin: Harris +1.8


It was very tight and now it is even more tight.
With these numbers it is safe to say that polls are basically useless.



At this point it all depends on 4 main factors:

How many young and none voters will come out for Harris to "save democracy".
How many Trumpers are lying in polls or they are too far out in rural areas to be polled properly
How many centrist Republicans are lying that they will vote for Trump, but they will probably stay home
Weather on election day

 

[The Cat]

 

[Virtual ghost]

NATO’s Stoltenberg has parting words for Europe: Don’t fear Trump, work with him

Something pretty fresh that adds up on above post.
This is exactly why I used the world "gamble". Because if this connection fails to be maintained then what we are seeing today is an escalation that is probably worth it in the big picture. Especially since the situation could snowball against the collective west if it can't maintain the "teamwork". Therefore regardless of who wins anywhere US and Europe must remain allies in practice (not just on paper). Because once that stops that is basically the end of post ww2 world order (which was defined by the west/first world). What would open the door that "someone" else could propose a new order (someone who has over billion people and plenty of industry inside their borders).

 

[SensEye]

I'd be interested in hearing feedback here.

It feels like an epically bad move timing-wise for Iran to attack Israel the month before the U.S. elections. My impression is that a destabilized military situation will make Americans flock to their imaginary "strong man" and could get him elected. If he is elected - isn't his position absolute for Israel and on board with completely destroying Iran and Hamas? Might he nuke Iran or decimate them militarily using other weapons? Seems like they should consider the elections in the U.S. since we are arming Israel. Am I missing something here?

I think it is good strategy from Netanyahu's perspective. Lame duck Biden doesn't want to get involved at all, and Harris is too focused on the election to pay attention. So Israel gets a bit of a free hand until Nov 6 (and maybe until January). If Trump wins, he seems like he'll back Israel unconditionally, and if Israel can ramp the conflict up enough, Harris will kind of be boxed in. I doubt she can just abandon Israel if the region is on fire. OTOH, if things were relatively calm (i.e. just the never ending mopping up in Gaza as the issue) she could probably pressure Israel into a ceasefire by the time she takes office (maybe).

So setting the region aflame before the election, works in Israel's favor from what I can see. But the timing is bad for the Democrats in the upcoming election as I think it does favor Trump. Although I don't think most American Jews like Trump for president, despite his pro-Israel stance.

 

[The Cat]

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

So setting the region aflame before the election, works in Israel's favor from what I can see. But the timing is bad for the Democrats in the upcoming election as I think it does favor Trump. Although I don't think most American Jews like Trump for president, despite his pro-Israel stance.

I met one on a date who said she voted for Trump and I thought she was a fool. I didn't say so, but I had to end it there. She was pissed, but that's the way it had to go. It's too bad because she had tended to have a jaded view of things I found refreshing, but I was hoping for sense to accompany it.

 

[Lark]

What does anyone think about Trump describing the UK Labour party as "far left"?

It did make me laugh and laugh and laugh.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

What does anyone think about Trump describing the UK Labour party as "far left"?

It did make me laugh and laugh and laugh.

That kind of thing is nothing new for the American right. Trump didn't invent it.

 

[Lark]

That kind of thing is nothing new for the American right. Trump didn't invent it.

I just find it so, so incredible, it surely is an indication of how far to the right the supposed conservatives in the US have shifted, the Labour party in the UK today is slightly to the right of Margaret Thatcher's party in the eighties.

 

[Virtual ghost]

I am not really sure that US conservatives shifted that much to the right, but they have evidently shifted more towards "uneducated positions". In other words as the time is passing more and more people in percentage have passed through the weak education system. What can be considered to be the problem that is going much deeper than the standard left-right talk. Especially since it is evident that the Republican party got cannibalized by uneducated people.

 

[ygolo]

I am not really sure that US conservatives shifted that much to the right, but they have evidently shifted more towards "uneducated positions". In other words as the time is passing more and more people in percentage have passed through the weak education system. What can be considered to be the problem that is going much deeper than the standard left-right talk. Especially since it is evident that the Republican party got cannibalized by uneducated people.

This is a much more complicated issue for unpacking.

 

[ygolo]

Nate Silver predicts path for Kamala Harris to "probably" win election

The pollster's presidential model has Harris leading Donald Trump nationally by 1.2 points.

www.newsweek.com

The blue wall has always been the strategy, I think.

In terms of trying to win congress also and campaigning in California, and other such places, if I were a strategist, I'd consider it a lack of focus.

Personally, I would love to see "disenfranchised Silicon Valley" (lost jobs, lost homes, forced to move in the last 4 years) come back into the fold.

But, I think strategically, losing congress and winning the presidency is by far the better result, than losing the presidency and winning congress.

The "opportunity economy" message can fit the opportunities in each state.

If Harris actually hears people's problems, I think stumping locally and engaging swing and ambivalent voters in in-depth conversations would do wonders--not a lot of time though. If she empathizes as well as claimed, that step could lead to a lot of local earned media.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

I'm actually feeling cautiously optimistic about Harris's chances now. Being the pessimist that I am, it's not easy to get me to do that.

 

[The Cat]

I'm actually feeling cautiously optimistic about Harris's chances now. Being the pessimist that I am, it's not easy to get me to do that.

tbh you've always seemed more like an idealist than a pessimist to me.

 

[SensEye]

Thank god this is almost over. I don't know why, but it seems this election campaign has been dragging on eternally. I think it is because, no matter what kind of craziness is going on (and there has been more than a little) nothing appears to have any meaningful impact. Debates, campaigning, gaffs, insults, etc. all result in "too close to call". So I keep thinking... just have the vote already.