Random political thought thread.

[Kephalos]

This reminds me of one of my many complaints with the Democratic party. When the Republican party changes the way the game is played, they don't react accordingly. They keep playing the same way because it's the "noble" thing to do; even though, given the stakes involved, it's not actually that "noble". Many of the Democrats are obsessed with protocol and tradition (which is really a conservative mentality, not a progressive one), treating them as unbreakable laws. If the world is burning down, it is not morally praiseworthy to insist on adhering to tradition simply because it's "the way it's done"; these things aren't laws. Clinging to normalcy when all the evidence shows otherwise is not a sound decision. Meanwhile, the Republicans don't care about protocol and tradition, unless caring about them can help them with their goals. That's hypocrisy, but the voters won't care, which is why they will never stop doing it.

I regret that I'm forced to keep voting for the Democrats because I think the Republican party is almost entirely a fascist movement at this point.

Well, there do exist more or less balanced and moderate parliamentary systems such as West Germany's and by extension today's Germany's political system to the extent that it does not deviate from the old West German Fundamental Statute. I'd like to emphasize the German case, because it combines federalism (another crucial check and balance) like the United States. Also, the English Westminster SYstem in its better days, not only because of England's and the United States's cultural and historical similarities, but more because it used to incorporate another check and balance that exists and should continue to exist in the United States, the single-member, winner-take-all constituency. Both England and Germany have large conservative parties that operate under the adversarial, disciplined way I describe, especially in England.

And then there are the much more common basket case parliamentary countries like Spain, or Italy or Israel, or the Fourth French Republic, and Belgium and the Netherlands and all the Latin American countries which have been foolish enough to incorporate parliamentary features into their political systems such as Perú (and which have paid dearly for such mistakes). Unlike the United States, these countries have fewer (or in the case of Israel, zero) checks and balances on whoever happens to be in government at the time. Of course, the unlimited and unconstrained majoritarian democratism of parliamentary systems is not by itself enough to produce weimarization nor turn the system into what Lord Hailsham very accurately described as an elective dictatorship.

The danger comes when the political parties begin functioning like I described the Republican Party to behave. The tendency is for the party to become, in effect, a vehicle for the idiosyncrasies of its leader. And this happens because, like Mr. Trump does, party leaders either select candidates for everything (or has great influence on the selection) leading to the institution being filled by sycophantic yes-men (backbenchers, that is). That, combined with the essentially unconstrained power of a parliamentary majority can make a parliamentary democracy, metaphorically speaking, an elected dictatorship (rule by the party that has a majority which in turn is controlled by the party leader and Prime MInister). And the inherent instability of some parliamentary systems (like Israels, infamously chaotic) means that "one" elected dictator can be replaced by another, either when some razor-thin majority changes or when a "Frankenstein" coalition government suddenly collapses, with the inevitable huge swings in politics (political chaos, or in other words, Weimarization).

 

[The Cat]

 

[Red Herring]

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

I saw a sticker on a telephone pole that seemed aimed at getting people to protest the Democratic convention, because of Gaza. I wonder if it will be anything like the '68 convention. Stuff like this is all over the city and has been for months.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Well, there do exist more or less balanced and moderate parliamentary systems such as West Germany's and by extension today's Germany's political system to the extent that it does not deviate from the old West German Fundamental Statute. I'd like to emphasize the German case, because it combines federalism (another crucial check and balance) like the United States. Also, the English Westminster SYstem in its better days, not only because of England's and the United States's cultural and historical similarities, but more because it used to incorporate another check and balance that exists and should continue to exist in the United States, the single-member, winner-take-all constituency. Both England and Germany have large conservative parties that operate under the adversarial, disciplined way I describe, especially in England.

And then there are the much more common basket case parliamentary countries like Spain, or Italy or Israel, or the Fourth French Republic, and Belgium and the Netherlands and all the Latin American countries which have been foolish enough to incorporate parliamentary features into their political systems such as Perú (and which have paid dearly for such mistakes). Unlike the United States, these countries have fewer (or in the case of Israel, zero) checks and balances on whoever happens to be in government at the time. Of course, the unlimited and unconstrained majoritarian democratism of parliamentary systems is not by itself enough to produce weimarization nor turn the system into what Lord Hailsham very accurately described as an elective dictatorship.

The danger comes when the political parties begin functioning like I described the Republican Party to behave. The tendency is for the party to become, in effect, a vehicle for the idiosyncrasies of its leader. And this happens because, like Mr. Trump does, party leaders either select candidates for everything (or has great influence on the selection) leading to the institution being filled by sycophantic yes-men (backbenchers, that is). That, combined with the essentially unconstrained power of a parliamentary majority can make a parliamentary democracy, metaphorically speaking, an elected dictatorship (rule by the party that has a majority which in turn is controlled by the party leader and Prime MInister). And the inherent instability of some parliamentary systems (like Israels, infamously chaotic) means that "one" elected dictator can be replaced by another, either when some razor-thin majority changes or when a "Frankenstein" coalition government suddenly collapses, with the inevitable huge swings in politics (political chaos, or in other words, Weimarization).

People complain that they don't teach civics anymore. I actually did get taught civics. One of the things I learned was that "the president was not a king". Imagine my surprise when Trump was elected and apparently various institutions have made it their policy that you can't indict a sitting president, or something like that. The idea of the presidency not being a monarchy was more of a suggestion. I wonder how many other checks and balances are like that; entirely undermined by the whims of institutions, and we simply don't know that because nobody has tested them.

 

[The Cat]

Political science is a social science which deals with systems of governance, and the analysis of political activities, political thoughts, and political behavior. Civics are the things people do that affect fellow citizens, especially when that relates to the maintenance of urban development.

 

[Virtual ghost]

World’s cartoonists on this week’s events

 

[The Cat]

"In this country we have no 'other' people."
Nazis can't take over a unified country. So they divide it into smaller groups. Use prejudice as a practical weapon to cripple the nation. Human beings are not born with prejudices. They are made for us by someone who wants something.
All of this has happened before, and all of it is happening again.
Wake up. Pay Attention. The Hydra is regrowing heads.​

 

[The Cat]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Deepfakes, distrust and disinformation: Welcome to the AI election

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Deepfakes, distrust and disinformation: Welcome to the AI election

This is where the fun begins.

 

[Red Herring]

According to the ministry for culture 30.7% of all firstgraders at elementary schools in the state of Bavaria do not speak German as their first language. In Munich it is 53.7%.

 

[Coriolis]

According to the ministry for culture 30.7% of all firstgraders at elementary schools in the state of Bavaria do not speak German as their first language. In Munich it is 53.7%.

What languages do they speak?

 

[Red Herring]

What languages do they speak?

Turks are (and have been for half a century) the largest ethnic minority, followed by Russians that came here in the 90s, but these two groups are relatively well integrated and usually bilingual from the start. I'd have to look up the numbers, but my guess would be that Arabic, Ukrainian/Russian and Pashto/Dari would be the most widespread languages among recent migrants.

EDIT: I apparently forgot Poland which is actually the second largest group after Turkey and before Russia. They don't really stick out And I am not aware of any issues language related or otherwise. And if you add Russia and Kazachstan (and a few former members of the Soviet Union) together that is actually the largest group. There are also some Southern European former migrant workers from the 50s-70s that morphed into the general population pretty quickly. There are quite a lot of recent arrivals from Afghanistan, Syria and Ukraine, but also quite a few refugees from all over the African continent that all came here during the last ten or twenty years but often have a complicated legal status and might be sent back to their country of origin after a few years.

As you can see this is a very mixed bag. Some might have highly educated parents and others parents that are illiterate (I talked with an Afghan lady a few months ago who told me how her husband who couldn't read or write in his native language had a hard time learning a new one let alone help his kids with it - she herself had enjoyed a formal education, spoke some English and was actively working in her German). Some are third or fourth generation and some just got here. Some have war trauma and some might hope to soon return and thus see no point in integrating while others want to start a new life here. Some think female teachers carry no authority and boys don't have to listen to them. Some think this entire place is rigged and see any kind of institution as the enemy. Others idealize it. Recent migrants applying for asylum are not legally allowed to work and of course there is discrimination, so migration correlates with poverty (in addition, many recent refugees from Afghanistan or the Middle East are young males which is the most vulnerable demographic for crimes and misdemeanors) which leads to mistrust in the system which can lead to poor educational performance which leads to more poverty.

Germany also suffers from a severe shortage of teachers. And there is a housing crises. So the situation can be a little tense.

I am generally pro-migration. Definitely when it is qualified people wanting to work, we need those urgently. And we should continue to take in war refugees (preferably within a fair European distribution system). Primarily because that is a humanitarian obligation and while it might cost money and cause problems short term, we'd even benefit longterm. They need language classes and social housing and dedicated social workers and a lot more publically funded help through to successfully set foot here. People fleeing from poverty are a bit more complicated, since we don't really have a regulated system for people who have no skills and no education to contribute and are not in immediate danger at home. Maybe a Quota system? really don't know.

 

[Red Herring]

P.S.: Eastern Europeans are usually very well integrated and well accepted in mainstream society. The only issue I have with some of them is that as a demographic Russian or Kazach migrants tend to vote far-right and often support Putin.

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[SensEye]

That video is a bit of a misnomer. By 'overtaking' I think he means Biden 'caught up' to Trump in the polls. I think the anti-abortion crazy is starting to tell. Even Trump is moderating his stance. Trump has some savvy in sensing which way the wind is blowing.

I'm not buying that Trump's legal issues or campaign funding has much to do with it but who knows. Much as I have zero respect for Biden, Trump is a greater evil, so I hope the Dems pull it out.

 

[The Cat]

 

[Red Herring]

P.S.: Eastern Europeans are usually very well integrated and well accepted in mainstream society. The only issue I have with some of them is that as a demographic Russian or Kazach migrants tend to vote far-right and often support Putin.

Aaaand today's breaking news involves two Russian-Germans arrested for military espionage and planned acts of sabotage.

 

[Virtual ghost]

2024 House Election Map

New consensus map is out.