Cold war 2.0

[Red Herring]

So Boris is coming back as PM 2.0? Of course as that is the funniest outcome of this entire thing but there isn't anyone else?

I thought Jeremy Hunt was the hot bet right now. And there is still Sunak.

 

[Falcarius]

Despite what the media are saying the chances of Boris becoming PM again are pretty slim. It is much more financially profitable for him to write a memoir, hit the lecture circuit, write newspaper articles, and take corporate advisor roles than become PM again. He is kinda toxic for many MPs from his own party so would probably completely finish the party. Plus he is being investigated by the parliamentary committee and is perhaps going to be found to “knowingly mislead parliament” and would have to constitutionally resign if PM. It would be ridiculous if he became PM and had to resign again.

Penny Mordaunt v Sunak most likely, Boris might run, and maybe Ben Wallace might be forced into it or something. Hunt ruled himself out and flopped the other month in the last leadership contest.

​

 

[JAVO]

I keep seeing headlines about Iranian troops being in Crimea, as if it were surprising. Captain Obvious must write these things.

 

[The Cat]

 

[JAVO]

From Oct. 20th:

Multiple undersea cables in the south of France were cut overnight, making Internet access unreliable globally. Engineers fixed one broken link, and investigations are still ongoing. Fingers have been pointed at Russian submarines because of the Ukraine conflict, but investigators have not yet found any evidence supporting this assumption.

The BBC also reported that an undersea cable connecting the Shetland Islands to Scotland suffered damage at about the same time as the South France incident. The break left the Shetlands isolated from the rest of the world. The Shetland cut occurred while technicians were still working to restore another cable connecting the Faroe Islands to Shetland that got severed a week ago.

The chance for multiple incidents occurring to the European undersea fiber infrastructure is slim. Hypothetical scenarios of Russian submarines damaging the world's internet infrastructure seem rather extreme. However, the current geopolitical crisis created by the Russian invasion of Ukraine raises concerns regarding Kremlin involvement.

Damaged European undersea cables impact internet connectivity worldwide

On Wednesday night, a serious incident involving an undersea cable in the south of France caused widespread internet connectivity issues. At least three fiber cables were severed...

www.techspot.com

 

[JAVO]

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu spoke with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and three other counterparts from leading NATO members on October 23 amid growing concern that the Kremlin could escalate its war in Ukraine as it suffers defeats.

Shoigu’s call with Austin was his second in three days. The two had gone months without speaking and have now had just three calls since Russia unleashed a large-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24.

Shoigu also held phone calls with Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, and French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu.

In those three calls, Shoigu conveyed "concerns about possible provocations by Ukraine with the use of a 'dirty bomb,'" the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement. The ministry provided no evidence to support its alleged concerns and the statements did not provide further details.

Western defense officials rejected Shoigu’s comments as a Russian pretext for escalation.

Dara Massicot, a military expert at the Washington-based think tank RAND Corp, said the Russian Defense Ministry’s statement was disconcerting.

“This reads like Russian false flag groundwork. Troubling that it’s happening at the defense minister level,” she said in a tweet.

Russian Defense Minister Shoigu Holds Calls With U.S., Other NATO Counterparts Amid Escalation Fears

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu spoke with U.S. Defense Secretary Llyod Austin and three other counterparts from leading NATO members on October 23 amid growing concern that the Kremlin could escalate its war in Ukraine as it suffers defeats.

www.rferl.org

However, the Institute for the Study of War disagrees that this is Russia laying the groundwork for a false flag attack:

Shoigu’s calls—and Russian state media’s amplification of false dirty bomb threats—are therefore likely intended to intimidate Western states into cutting or limiting support for Ukraine as Russia faces continued military setbacks and the likely loss of western Kherson by the end of the year. ISW has assessed since May that Putin seeks to force Ukraine to accept his terms and deter continued Western support for Ukraine through nuclear brinksmanship.[8] The recipients of Shoigu’s calls are also notable. The Kremlin has repeatedly framed the United States and the United Kingdom as Ukraine’s primary backers and the enablers of what it claims are aggressive policies toward Russia, while France and Turkey have (to varying degrees) framed themselves as mediators in the conflict. Shoigu’s round of calls was likely further Russian saber-rattling to intimidate Ukraine’s Western supporters and possibly widen fissures within the NATO alliance, not condition setting for imminent nuclear use.

Institute for the Study of War

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu likely sought to slow or suspend Western military aid to Ukraine and possibly weaken the NATO alliance in scare-mongering calls with several NATO defense ministers on October 23. Shoigu separately called his

www.understandingwar.org

 

[Red Herring]

From Oct. 20th:

Damaged European undersea cables impact internet connectivity worldwide

On Wednesday night, a serious incident involving an undersea cable in the south of France caused widespread internet connectivity issues. At least three fiber cables were severed...

www.techspot.com

If you add these mysterious attacks to the mysterious attack on the German railroad communication infrastructure I mentioned and the mysterious attack on Nord Stream 1 and 2 it is understandable that the construction of the new LNG terminals is happening under 24/7 police surveillance.


In other news, Russian media (the show Antifake on Russian state television which is itself dedicated to spreading fake news) recently broadcasted an interview with a young woman supposedly from her appartement in Munich. She was wearing a thick winter coat indoors and claimed that people were freezing due to the sanctions....... It was 65°F in Munich that day!
There is also a video about dropping support for Ukraine supposedly showing Ukranian refugees in Germany standing around a pot of soup where - again mysteriously - the signs in the background advertise a hotel and a gas station in Russia and a can of Russian food can be seen.

Playing five-dimensional chess again, I guess.

 

[Falcarius]

Lol @ Boris.

Looks like Sunak will become PM today unless something strange happens. First British Asian PM, youngest PM for like 200 years, first Hindu PM, richest PM, first non-white PM...

 

[The Cat]

"...the one time "nationalist" commenators could do something good for the country and they're too busy polishing Putin's boot. You have to ask yourself why, are they really 'america first' if what they're doing is actively undermining the united states? Or... Do they just use that framing to appeal to an audience they've tricked. Maybe they're not really america first maybe they dont support a constitutional republic as they claim. Maybe they support authoritarian rule by the elites. And that's why they always point to Putin thats why they hold him up thats why they talk about how great he is and if he loses this war particularly to a woke they them military it undermines their entire authoritarian philosophy..."​

 

[The Cat]

 

[Red Herring]

I keep seeing headlines about Iranian troops being in Crimea, as if it were surprising. Captain Obvious must write these things.

Do you mean drones? I heard a lot about drones (which the Russians and Iranians halfheartedly deny but for which there is evidence). You are the only one I ever heard mention troops.

 

[Red Herring]

For those wondering if Germany learned its lesson regarding dependency of strategically important infrastructure on shady partners...

... chancelor Scholz is about to let the Chinese stateowned Cosco buy itself into Hamburg harbor! It's only 24.9% instead of the originally planned 35% and only concerns one terminal but:
- the ministry of the economy, the ministry of the interior, the foreign ministery, several additional ministeries as well as the secret service and the president warned against it
- 81% of the German population are against it
- this will be a though sell to our allies

The Chinese already own several European harbors. From what I've heard the Greek bitterly regret selling Piraeus (where they started with a minor participation and eventually bought up the whole place).

The main arguments in favor seem to be:
- jobs (the Chinese plan to redirect even more business to Hamburg)
- apparently the Chinese warned Germany not to stop the investment or else (nothing says "trustworthy business partner" like a gun pointed to one's chest - but then again the USA has also tried to force Germany's hand in infrastructure decisions before, with considerable pressure)

 

[JAVO]

Do you mean drones? I heard a lot about drones (which the Russians and Iranians halfheartedly deny but for which there is evidence). You are the only one I ever heard mention troops.

Yes, troops. I had already assumed that given that there was widespread use of Iranian drones. The Russians would need instruction and guidance in their use from the Iranian military. I mean I can figure out how to fly toy drones around my yard with poorly-translated instructions, but if they could fire live missiles, I'd want a little more training.

US: Iranian troops in Crimea backing Russian drone strikes

The White House says the U.S. has evidence that Iranian troops are “directly engaged on the ground” in Crimea supporting Russian drone attacks on Ukraine’s power stations and other key infrastructure.

apnews.com

“The information we have is that the Iranians have put trainers and tech support in Crimea, but it’s the Russians who are doing the piloting,” Kirby said.

He added that the Biden administration was looking at imposing new sanctions on Tehran and would look for ways to make it harder for Iran to sell such weapons to Russia.

The U.S. first revealed this summer that Russia was purchasing Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles to launch against Ukraine. Iran has denied selling its munitions to Russia.

U.S. officials believe that Iran may have deployed military personnel to assist the Russians in part because of the Russians’ lack of familiarity with the Iranian-made drones. Declassified U.S. intelligence findings showed that Russians faced technical problems with the drones soon after taking delivery of them in August.

“The systems themselves were suffering failures and not performing to the standards that apparently the customers expected,” Kirby said. “So the Iranians decided to move in some trainers and some technical support to help the Russians use them with better lethality.”

A few more stories about troops in Crimea:

U.S. says Iranian troops "directly engaged" in Crimea, backing Russian drone strikes

The White House says the U.S. has evidence that Iranian troops are "directly engaged on the ground" in Crimea supporting Russian drone attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure and civilian population.

www.cbsnews.com

Iran sent troops to Ukraine to help Russia use Iranian-made drones

“We assess that Iranian military personnel were on the ground in Crimea and assisted Russia in these operations,” said White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby.

www.nbcnews.com

Ukraine war: Iranian drone experts 'on the ground' in Crimea - US

Tehran has experts on the ground in Crimea helping with drone attacks on Ukraine, the White House says.

www.bbc.com

 

[The Cat]

 

[The Cat]

The Fashion world is abuzz...​

 

[JAVO]

Preparations and buildup for WW III continue, most recently with the first deployment of the US Army's 101st Airborne Division to Europe since WW II.

 

[SD45T-2]

Lol @ Boris.

Looks like Sunak will become PM today unless something strange happens. First British Asian PM, youngest PM for like 200 years, first Hindu PM, richest PM, first non-white PM...

Thatcher was the Iron Lady, and Truss was the Lettuce Lady, so are there any nicknames in the works for Sunak?

 

[Falcarius]

Thatcher was the Iron Lady, and Truss was the Lettuce Lady, so are there any nicknames in the works for Sunak?

'Dishy Rishi' according to pretty much all the female journalists during lockdown. 'Yorkshire Maharajah' so social media says. 'Mr Tax' according to main opposition party.

For what it worth, Truss is probably going to be more associated with pork markets than lattuce in history.Panel shows still loving that speach 8 years later. The media called her the 'Human Hand Grenade' as political advisor described everything she does as blowing up in her face.

 

[JAVO]

US and Saudi Arabia concerned that Iran may be planning attack on energy infrastructure in Middle East | CNN Politics

United States and Saudi Arabia have shared intelligence with each other that indicates that Iran may be planning an imminent attack on energy infrastructure in the Middle East, particularly in Saudi Arabia, a US official tells CNN.

www.cnn.com

 

[JAVO]

"Oh, we're just here inspecting. "

U.S. military personnel are now on the ground in Ukraine, keeping track of and inspecting weapons the U.S. has shipped to Ukrainian forces, a senior defense official announced during a Pentagon background briefing on Monday. These U.S. personnel are some of the first the Pentagon has acknowledged have entered Ukraine since Russia launched its large scale invasion of the country in February.

The senior defense official who spoke on background during an official Pentagon event, said, “U.S. personnel have recently resumed on-site inspections to assess weapon stocks in country whenever and wherever the security conditions allow.” The official said “the return of our defense attaché and Office of Defense Cooperation personnel in country has allowed us to resume this critical function.”

US forces now on the ground in Ukraine

U.S. military personnel are now on the ground in Ukraine, a senior defense official said during a Pentagon background press briefing Monday.

americanmilitarynews.com