Trump vs. Biden

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Suppliers - yes. Actual assembly plants? No.

So they make the parts, but they don't put them together? Or do they store them from overseas.

Sorry, I always just kind of thought of assembly plants as all there were to it; I hadn't given much thought to where the parts might come from.

 

[ceecee]

So they make the parts, but they don't put them together? Or do they store them from overseas.

Sorry, I always just kind of thought of assembly plants as all there were to it; I hadn't given much thought to where the parts might come from.

Being a Detroit area native, almost everyone I knew growing up had parents in some sort of automotive job. It was the reason for the bailout in 2008, it's a huge job creator. Sure there are a lot of people employed by Ford - maybe 200k. There is probably closer to a million supplier jobs nationwide.

 

[The Cat]

So they make the parts, but they don't put them together? Or do they store them from overseas.

Sorry, I always just kind of thought of assembly plants as all there were to it; I hadn't given much thought to where the parts might come from.

the parts typically have to be fabricated in their own place; assembly is putting together the parts fabricated from elsewhere...

 

[violet_crown]

Biden will lose.

So...I went into this election season of the impression Biden would win.

But my feeling in the past 24hrs has been maybe Biden does lose and it’s excruciating, because, like, 2020 and stuff.

 

[anticlimatic]

So...I went into this election season of the impression Biden would win.

But my feeling in the past 24hrs has been maybe Biden does lose and it’s excruciating, because, like, 2020 and stuff.

Trump's last plausible chance will be decided tonight in Arizona. After that, rest easy. Recounts and lawsuits will fly nowhere.

 

[Totenkindly]

I'm not yet convinced that Biden will hold Arizona, based on the remaining votes yet to be counted and demographics.

It might go either way. So things will get more complicated.

EDIT: This just in from 538

As Aaron mentioned, we just got a batch of about 74,000 Maricopa County votes that split 59-41 for Trump. This narrowed Biden’s statewide lead to about 79,000 votes. To close that gap, with about 418,000 ballots left to count statewide, Trump would have to win the remaining ballots … 59-41. One silver lining for Biden, though: A fair number of those remaining 418,000 ballots are in Pima County, which is bluer then Maricopa.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Being a Detroit area native, almost everyone I knew growing up had parents in some sort of automotive job. It was the reason for the bailout in 2008, it's a huge job creator. Sure there are a lot of people employed by Ford - maybe 200k. There is probably closer to a million supplier jobs nationwide.

I'm fine with bailing out the automotive companies. Investment banks, which caused the crisis, are a different matter. Also, the automotive companies make things. What exactly do the investment banks do? As far as I know there were no efforts towards making it so that banks couldn't be "too big to fail". They could have at least reinstated Glass-Steagall, which I don't think they did. Wouldn't that have prevented the crisis? Is there any thing they did so that the crisis couldn't happen again? While boom and bust is part of capitalism, my understanding is that it was worse than that. The Great Recession always seemed a bit of a euphemism to me. So much of the time after that when it was declared to be a "recovery" the growth was only on Wall Street, not in wages, or, for a long time, jobs.

 

[Z Buck McFate]

I kept seeing references to Trump suing states he's lost to win the election and I assumed it was a joke. Wow.

 

[violet_crown]

Trump's last plausible chance will be decided tonight in Arizona. After that, rest easy. Recounts and lawsuits will fly nowhere.

The wiggling in Maricopa is ominous, my bro. I’m a woman who needs a thing to just be a thing sometimes lol.

 

[Stigmata]

The wiggling in Maricopa is ominous, my bro. I’m a woman who needs a thing to just be a thing sometimes lol.

A sudden flip of Arizona/Nevada right now would be the most 2020 deux ex machina, ever.

 

[anticlimatic]

The wiggling in Maricopa is ominous, my bro. I’m a woman who needs a thing to just be a thing sometimes lol.

Ambiguity is very stressful.

 

[anticlimatic]

A sudden flip of Arizona/Nevada right now would be the most 2020 deux ex machina, ever.

I think things are just about perfect as is, I hope it stays biden. Good compromise, I think. Republican senate and solid turnout will kill all the crazy shit democrats wanted to do that republicans were afraid of, and democrats get to say goodbye to orange man. Lets not fuck it up.

 

[Stigmata]

I think things are just about perfect as is, I hope it stays biden. Good compromise, I think. Republican senate and solid turnout will kill all the crazy shit democrats wanted to do that republicans were afraid of, and democrats get to say goodbye to orange man. Lets not fuck it up.

Haven't you been riding the fence quite a bit for Trump for the last several months?

 

[Tilt]

I thought AP already called Biden for AZ at midnight. I was quite skeptical because only 84% of the votes were in at that time... The 264 I think calculates AZ into it.

 

[Totenkindly]

I thought AP already called Biden for AZ at midnight. I was quite skeptical because only 84% of the votes were in at that time...

I think only Fox and AP called it, everyone else has not committed.

 

[Jonny]

I’m not sure. Some of my sources have huge expected gains for Biden in outstanding absentee ballots, which are counted later in rust belt, GA and NV. It is not out of the realm of possibility that Biden actually wins this thing with 306 electoral votes.

Of course Trump can win. If he does, he’ll likely have lost the popular vote by an even larger margin than in 2016, and will come in under 300 EV’s.

I think people underestimated the different voting preferences for Dems (absentee) vs. Reps (in person). The urban/rural divide seems larger than ever, and we’re going to have to figure out as a country how to work together and appreciate each other’s differences. We are a divided nation, but there is potential for reconciliation.

The map below is looking like a real possibility for Biden:

This would be meaningful in that it would give Biden the number of EV’s Trump *would* have had in 2016 without faithless electors. I think it would signal to Trump that he was BTFO in the same magnitude he won in 2016 (or more considering PV margin). If Biden comes up short in some combination of GA+NV+AZ then the map would appear much closer to a “tie” and Trump would likely seize on that to advance his rhetoric.

 

[Tilt]

I think only Fox and AP called it, everyone else has not committed.

So does that mean the 264 has AZ calculated into it? Because some people are claiming Biden only needs to win NV to win the election.

 

[Totenkindly]

So does that mean the 264 has AZ calculated into it? Because some people are claiming Biden only needs to win NV to win the election.

Yes, AZ is calculated into the 264. If he does not hold AZ, then he will need more than NV.

 

[Jonny]

So does that mean the 264 has AZ calculated into it? Because some people are claiming Biden only needs to win NV to win the election.

Yes, that’s based on the AZ call, though most now view it as premature. Much more likely to win PA imo. Biden is performing a few points better across the board, and the remaining ballots are more than enough to put him over the top. This election was somewhere in between 2016 and 2018 in terms of expectations, journey, and final result. That initial Florida/Ohio breakdown, leading people to think Trump/Reps were on track to win, and the a shift back toward Dems. Obviously R’s did relatively well in house and Senate, but when this is said and done it might not be particularly close between Biden and Trump (better than 2004 and 2000).

What might be the takeaway? Neither Trump nor the woke-left are good paths for our country. Some sort of return to normalcy/centrism.

Edit: I’d like to add, the way expectations were set and results came in really sucked for everyone involved. Hopes were dashed and raised and dashed. It was a wild ride, and I’m grateful to be on this side of it but empathetic toward my Trumpian friends for what they must be going through.

 

[The Cat]

I have a feeling we're all going to miss having a common enemy soon enough...