Trump vs. Biden

[Z Buck McFate]

He sounds like an evil Jimmy Stewart, and has an superior frog sack. You know. The important things. (he's actually pretty good at what he does. The horrible horrible things that he does. It's the power of the frog sack. All of Tsathoggua's chosen manifest one. It is known.

I think he looks and sounds like Vogon diarrhea.

 

[anticlimatic]

My girlfriend is freaking out, I'm kind of secretly hoping Biden wins...but things do seem to be playing out the way my intuition forecasted. It's still anyone's election, and either way not much will change in the grand scheme of things and we're all going to be alright.

 

[FemMecha]

My intuition has seen Trump assassinated for months. It's been a weird personal torment, always outside the corner of my eye like seeing it in my peripheral vision.

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

I think the GOP has done a better job of courting the Hispanic community and that demographic will probably decide this one.

 

[Jonny]

...we're all going to be alright.

Amen to that. Regardless of the outcome, post election should be better than the last few months.

 

[Jaguar]

My intuition has seen Trump assassinated for months.

You just made me spit out my drink, laughing.

 

[FemMecha]

This is Trump trying to grab my pussy...

please don't ban me. This is my drunken and despairing offense.

 

[Ghost]

The DNC refused to back a much better progressive state congressman that likely would have won.

Sounds like they've made a habit of that.

 

[Stigmata]

Sounds like they've made a habit of that.

The Democrats seem headed for some kind of split if they lose this election -- between having to contend with the right-wing political machine while doing everything they can to keep their thumb on the swing towards progressivism gaining momentum within the party, something has got to change within the overall leadership of the party. Whichever way this election goes, it should tell the Dems that pushing these moderate candidates who desperately try to appeal to this mythical moderate Republican base, is a losing strategy.

 

[Jaguar]

The fat lady isn't singing.

 

[Jaguar]

What a piece of trailer trash. Did you hear what he just said?

 

[Mind Maverick]

 

[ygolo]

My girlfriend is freaking out, I'm kind of secretly hoping Biden wins...but things do seem to be playing out the way my intuition forecasted. It's still anyone's election, and either way not much will change in the grand scheme of things and we're all going to be alright.

Amen to that. Regardless of the outcome, post election should be better than the last few months.

I hope you guys are correct. I suppose that is most likely.

However, I wonder how people felt before the Civil War started. Or the days before Pearl Harbor. How does one predict political Black Swans?

 

[Polaris]

Unfortunately, it's not looking good for Biden. He'll likely only get 16 more votes in the electoral college, putting him well short of victory, whereas Trump is poised to win. Sadly, people have shown that they're willing to embrace anything if a candidate has an R next to his name and calls himself a Christian.

 

[Jonny]

I hope you guys are correct. I suppose that is most likely.

However, I wonder how people felt before the Civil War started. Or the days before Pearl Harbor. How does one predict political Black Swans?

Well, the civil war had people’s livelihoods at stake in a way that isn’t really possible now. Sure, lockdowns do impact people’s livelihoods, but simply not enforcing lockdowns is so much easier than civil war. There are no slaves to free, no economies to decimate with the stroke of a pen.

This has sure turned into a very close EC race though. I’m not sure if you could have designed it with more drama. Very 2020, to be sure.

edit:

To add to this... do I think we should be mandating masks and locking down to stop COVID? Yes. I also think if you’re going to be financially ruined because of it we should all bail you out. But, if you’d rather have a civil war than lockdown, well I’d rather just let you spread COVID. I don’t like it, but I care too much for our country and the people here. A civil war would be astronomically worse than COVID.

 

[Virtual ghost]

I watched the election night and I know that this still isn't fully over but I really can't say I am surprised with how things look right now.
As I was saying/suspecting it seems that we once again got this bubble of how democratic victory is quite likely, while the actual polling numbers weren't really there. Averages were like Florida +1.7 points for blue, North Carolina +2.5 points blue, Georgia +0.7 point blue, while Texas, Iowa and Ohio remained on the red side basically the whole time. What is extra messy when you count in the polling error that is about 3 points, and you just know that some people will not admit for who they are voting (I will not even go into possible half legal shenanigan). What overall simply aren't that good numbers when you think about it. The idea that Trump has only 10% chance of victory simply didn't stand if you watch the actual numbers and the situation in the field. I still genuinely don't understand from where they pulled that 10% (or less in some cases).


There was a chance that Biden could win landslide in electoral votes but all of that was very very narrow on local level. Therefore if Trump over performs expectations by just about 2 points basically the whole map collapses (or it is at least in the margin or error). What is basically equal to 1 in 50 people lying about for who they will vote and that evidently isn't something impossible. Maybe the rust belt will indeed save Biden in the end but even that it is not looking too promising at the moment. Therefore the media should have really been more objective about this, since the polls aren't really that wrong as much as the general narrative about them.



I will keep the talk about political consequences for when this fully clears up.

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

This may come to a split electoral vote, 269-269. Then all eyes on the House

I was running 270towin scenarios and the split votes of Maine might play a deciding role

If the senate ends up 50-50, next VP will be a busy one



Cheetoh Mussolini needs to shut his mouth until 100% of the ballots that weren’t thrown out have been counted

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

Biden can win without GA and NC but it would be a razor thin path

Unfortunately, my feelings that polls might be way off are proving correct. If this leads to a Trump win, I hate to be the one who told you so.

I think Trump supporters are more likely to fly under pre-election polling radars, and I speculated for months that there’d also be “secret Trump voters” unwilling to report their true intentions in polling. I think it’s a relatively small number, but enough to throw a wrench in everything. I think it goes along with a general feeling, on their part, of taking a delight in tossing a brick into the machinery. It allows them to magnify their own effect beyond that one vote, in some sense

This isn’t even taking into effect likely suppression efforts, which might also explain some of the discrepancies between polling and actual results.

 

[Jonny]

I’m not sure. Some of my sources have huge expected gains for Biden in outstanding absentee ballots, which are counted later in rust belt, GA and NV. It is not out of the realm of possibility that Biden actually wins this thing with 306 electoral votes.

Of course Trump can win. If he does, he’ll likely have lost the popular vote by an even larger margin than in 2016, and will come in under 300 EV’s.

I think people underestimated the different voting preferences for Dems (absentee) vs. Reps (in person). The urban/rural divide seems larger than ever, and we’re going to have to figure out as a country how to work together and appreciate each other’s differences. We are a divided nation, but there is potential for reconciliation.

 

[Maou]

Biden can win without GA and NC but it would be a razor thin path

Unfortunately, my feelings that polls might be way off are proving correct. If this leads to a Trump win, I hate to be the one who told you so.

I think Trump supporters are more likely to fly under pre-election polling radars, and I speculated for months that there’d also be “secret Trump voters” unwilling to report their true intentions in polling. I think it’s a relatively small number, but enough to throw a wrench in everything. I think it goes along with a general feeling, on their part, of taking a delight in tossing a brick into the machinery. It allows them to magnify their own effect beyond that one vote, in some sense

This isn’t even taking into effect likely suppression efforts, which might also explain some of the discrepancies between polling and actual results.

The secret Trump voter exists because of discrimination, not because its fun.