I don't mean this to sound argumentative or "go team" but I still don't see Biden winning this thing on a gut level. So just for the sake of your collective mental health, regardless of what the polls are telling you, keep your expectations tempered. Let your enthusiasm go nuts and go vote and all that, I'm not trying to be discouraging. It just seemed really rough on everyone that didn't like Trump in 2016, and I'd hate to see this year be even harder on people.
It can be really hard to tell anything about the electorate on a gut level, especially because we're talking about a small % of people in the middle. Clinton won the popular vote by 2%, and Biden is polling at 8%. But whether 49 out of 100 people are Trump supporters or 46 out of 100 people are Trump supporters would be really hard to tell from casual observation. Especially as our experience of the world becomes more distorted.
I think if someone consumes conservative media, they would undoubtedly have a gut sense that Trump would win. I go on /r/conservative, see what Fox News/Breitbart/NY Post/etc. are posting, and have a mother who is all-in on Trump. To them, Biden is both senile and corrupt and a puppet for the radical left. The choice is between anarchy/woke mob and sanity. I don't see how any reasonable person
could experience those things and believe Trump won't win. He seems like the only sane choice in this reality. Also, much of this seems like 2016 2.0 with all the punditry and Biden leading in the polls. So what evidence to they have that things will be different this time?
Similarly, other media sources paint a rather bleak picture for Trump. To those who consume these, it seems much more likely Biden will win comfortably...except for that itching 2016 2.0 feeling. People are always fighting the last war when it comes to political punditry, and Trump's win was unexpected to be sure. Still, if one chooses to look at the available data, it does appear to be materially different than in 2016.
I think people are much better prepared for the possibility of a Trump victory. You can see this in the sorts of discussions they're having, and in the betting markets. And yet, though I can't speak for others, personally I find the prospect of a Trump victory to be worse than in 2016. At that time, he was more of an unknown, and I had hope that he would be a good president despite his campaign rhetoric and bluster. Yet he turned out to be much worse than I could have imagined.
I'm ready for this election to be over, whatever comes.