Trump vs. Biden

[Jaguar]

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[Virtual ghost]

Current averages from 538


Arizona: Biden +3.7
Florida: Biden +1.8
Nevada: Biden +2.4
North Carolina: Biden +1.4
Pennsylvania: Biden: +4.3

It can happen and he still has 15 points extra. So if you tilt those numbers for another point or two the elections are basically a complete toss up towards this. Therefore the debates will evidently be of importance. I mean Pennsylvania is very likely to be this year's Florida (the kingmaker). Plus I will dare to say that even 538 is kinda too "optimistic" since they are giving Biden 77% chance of winning, while towards their own data it is almost surely visibly closer than that. 65:35 would be more like it.

 

[The Cat]

God damn it florida get it together.

 

[Virtual ghost]

God damn it florida get it together.

It isn't a pretty sight but on "270 to win" Florida isn't Biden +1.8 but +0.8.



So they have

Arizona: Biden +4
Florida: Biden +0.8
Nevada: Biden +4.5
North Carolina: Biden +0.8
Pennsylvania: Biden: +3.8


Therefore if this is true the map is totally winnable from the Trump's side. There will be plenty of quite close states but all pretty winnable on some way. Especially since he doesn't fundamentally need Nevada. Plus this site has New Hampshire at only +3 for Biden (Michigan only 5.2%).



Therefore as I said and I am sorry to say it but there needs to be some strategy change from "team blue". The talking points are getting lost in the salad that is both on TV and online.

 

[The Cat]

God damn boars.

 

[The Cat]

It isn't a pretty sight but on "270 to win" Florida isn't Biden +1.8 but +0.8.



So they have

Arizona: Biden +4
Florida: Biden +0.8
Nevada: Biden +4.5
North Carolina: Biden +0.8
Pennsylvania: Biden: +3.8


Therefore if this is true the map is totally winnable from the Trump's side. There will be plenty of quite close states but all pretty winnable on some way. Especially since he doesn't fundamentally need Nevada. Plus this site has New Hampshire at only +3 for Biden (Michigan only 5.2%).



Therefore as I said and I am sorry to say it but there needs to be some strategy change from "team blue". The talking points are getting lost in the salad that is both on TV and online.

I rather suspect he's trying to demoralize the voter base with his refusing to confirm a peaceful transition. he's been making a lot of implications of just how bad he could make it for everyone if things dont go his way.

 

[The Cat]

 

[The Cat]

 

[Red Memories]

Honestly, I don't see why Trump needs to be brought into the deaths of respectable humans.

Like, why insult her life by choosing to heckle him like a child during this time? Go vote, and vote for the right people.

I just hate it, this is a time to honor someone who spent her life fighting for justice, however she fought for it. This is a time to look at her accomplishments and grow from them. This isn't the time to give stupid publicity of any kind to that moron. They should know by now to a celebrity, any publicity is GOOD publicity, so Trump gives 0 fucks. I'd love to see these people go vote as well and continue to fight for positive change. As stated, let's do something instead of just having fake outrage.

 

[The Cat]

Honestly, I don't see why Trump needs to be brought into the deaths of respectable humans.

Like, why insult her life by choosing to heckle him like a child during this time? Go vote, and vote for the right people.

I just hate it, this is a time to honor someone who spent her life fighting for justice, however she fought for it. This is a time to look at her accomplishments and grow from them. This isn't the time to give stupid publicity of any kind to that moron. They should know by now to a celebrity, any publicity is GOOD publicity, so Trump gives 0 fucks. I'd love to see these people go vote as well and continue to fight for positive change. As stated, let's do something instead of just having fake outrage.

RBG didnt want the replacement picked till after the election, so I gotta figure she would apporve of people enacting their constitutional rights. As I recall she was big on that.

 

[The Cat]

He tried to get people to believe she never had a dying request. That way he could just shit all over her.

You know some people would think that's pretty damning, but everyones playing pretend it seems. I really hope they pull their heads out of their ass and do something. they wont. But fuck.

 

[Jaguar]

You know some people would think that's pretty damning, but everyones playing pretend it seems. I really hope they pull their heads out of their ass and do something. they wont. But fuck.

Why do you think those people were shouting "Vote him out" as he was inside, near her casket? I don't blame the people. He looked like a stalker, rather than someone paying any kind of respect to her.

 

[The Cat]

Why do you think those people were shouting "Vote him out" as he was inside, near her casket? I don't blame the people. He looked like a stalker, rather than someone paying any kind of respect to her.

It was like music to my ears, and a verry fitting way to honor RBG you gotta imagine Trump is gonna check the coffin at least once to make sure shes not laughing at him for that. oooh maybe she's haunting him as we speak? how cool would that be?

 

[Jaguar]

It was like music to my ears, and a verry fitting way to honor RBG you gotta imagine Trump is gonna check the coffin at least once to make sure shes not laughing at him for that. oooh maybe she's haunting him as we speak? how cool would that be?

I didn't realize until now they were also shouting "Honor her wish." If you find a video that plays longer, you can hear it going on for quite awhile.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Fox put out some really good polls for Biden, so among other things Ohio has now tilted blue in polling averages on 538 (and 270 to win). Although Ohio probably needs to be about 3 points blue to actually go blue in practice. However this is one of the states where Trump's path to victory can really get stuck, since he really needs that state.

Plus it seems that 538 removed some ultra low quality polls out of the equation in Nevada (that I think are just random online polls). What puts Nevada back where it was. I mean putting such polls in the mix is indeed kinda questionable. So now it is Biden +6.9. as an average.







The map form yesterday was a warning but here is how I actually see it for this point in time. (polls with a little bit of history and educated guess)

Florida, NC, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa and Arizona are where the real fights are.








Plus I find kinda shortsighted this push regarding the supreme court. Since it is evident that the idea is to mess with female healthcare and abortion issues. However if US retreats on that ground that is globally opening more space for China to step in as a relevant factor. Which evidently has rich history in these kinds of subjects (one child policy and all that jazz). Therefore if US changes it's legal position in these issues the good chunk of global infrastructure and tool production will evidently shift towards China (or at least EU). Since they will be the providers and even propaganda will get a few decent talking points to play with. So yeah, I am fairly sure this is a mistake in the big picture.

 

[The Cat]

 

[Totenkindly]

I didn't realize until now they were also shouting "Honor her wish." If you find a video that plays longer, you can hear it going on for quite awhile.

Just listened to it today. Didn't he claim to not have heard it? Bullshit. In fact, the footage shows him leaving pretty much as soon as the "Vote Him Out" chant takes off.

I would think RBG would be highly approving of this, and I am also sure all the people chanting WILL be voting for him to be gone. I don't see the point in showing deference or reverence to what has been shameful behavior and lies -- that's partly how we got here in the first place, it just encourages the pretense.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Let's see changes from Monday.

Arizona: Biden +4.5
Colorado: Biden +9.9
Florida: Biden +2.0
Georgia: Trump: +1.3
Iowa: Trump +1.8
Michigan: Biden +7.6
Minnesota: Biden +9.1
Missouri: Trump +6.9
Montana: Trump +8.2
Nevada: Biden +5.5
New Hampshire: Biden +6.6
North Carolina: Biden +1.2
Ohio: Trump +1.5
Pennsylvania: Biden +4.6
South Carolina: Trump +7.1
Texas: Trump +1.1
Wisconsin: Biden +6.6

Arizona: Biden +3.3
Colorado: Biden +9.8
Florida: Biden +1.6
Georgia: Trump: +1.2
Iowa: Trump +0.8
Michigan: Biden +6.9
Minnesota: Biden +9.0
Missouri: Trump +6.8
Montana: Trump +8.2
Nevada: Biden +6.4
New Hampshire: Biden +6.7
North Carolina: Biden +1.1
Ohio: Biden +1.0
Pennsylvania: Biden +4.7
South Carolina: Trump +6.9
Texas: Trump +1.9
Wisconsin: Biden +6.5



Therefore evidently the biggest difference is blue Ohio.
While Arizona and Florida are getting more red, but Nevada and Iowa are getting a little bit more blue. Everything else is fairly none interesting.
Plus the 2nd district of Maine that has a shot in creating the electoral tie is evidently leaning blue as the polls are coming in.

 

[Virtual ghost]

God damn it florida get it together.

Just a comment.

True, however probably it isn't that simple. Because if you watch from Biden's perspective Florida can perhaps be a "martyr" in a way. In other word's Trump simply can't win without Florida. Therefore if he through the campaign has to overspend time and money there to win it then even red Florida isn't necessarily bad for team blue. Since that would open fair amount of room somewhere else.

 

[The Cat]

Just a comment.

True, however probably it isn't that simple. Because if you watch from Biden's perspective Florida can perhaps be a "martyr" in a way. In other word's Trump simply can't win without Florida. Therefore if he through the campaign has to overspend time and money there to win it then even red Florida isn't necessarily bad for team blue. Since that would open fair amount of room somewhere else.

Just one time though. Just one election I'd like to see florida not fumble the ball to the other team.