Trump vs. Biden

[Jaguar]

Survey: Trump won big among voters who decided in the last 2 weeks of the campaign - Vox

• Dan Hopkins, who oversaw the survey, writes at FiveThirtyEight that this suggests Trump didn’t just outperform the polls because the polls were wrong, but rather that there was late movement toward him from undecided voters and even some Clinton supporters.
  
• In other words, more voters seem to have decided to support Trump in the final weeks of the election than support Clinton — a shift that very well could have cost her the race, since she lost three key swing states by less than 1 percentage point each.

Two weeks before the 2016 election, 15 percent of the electorate had not decided who they were voting for — three times as many undecided voters than in the 2012 election.

 

[Jonny]

Survey: Trump won big among voters who decided in the last 2 weeks of the campaign - Vox

• Dan Hopkins, who oversaw the survey, writes at FiveThirtyEight that this suggests Trump didn’t just outperform the polls because the polls were wrong, but rather that there was late movement toward him from undecided voters and even some Clinton supporters.
  
• In other words, more voters seem to have decided to support Trump in the final weeks of the election than support Clinton — a shift that very well could have cost her the race, since she lost three key swing states by less than 1 percentage point each.

Two weeks before the 2016 election, 15 percent of the electorate had not decided who they were voting for — three times as many undecided voters than in the 2012 election.

Exactly. For some reason, I just can't imagine that many people going into the polling booth and thinking to themselves, "what have I got to lose", and pulling the lever for Trump. It made a lot of sense in 2016 given the nature of the political climate, and Trump's status as relatively unknown politically but quite well "known" as a billionaire & successful reality TV star. People were tired of politicians, definitely tired of the Clintons, and Trump was a shot in the dark.

 

[Coriolis]

Exactly. For some reason, I just can't imagine that many people going into the polling booth and thinking to themselves, "what have I got to lose", and pulling the lever for Trump. It made a lot of sense in 2016 given the nature of the political climate, and Trump's status as relatively unknown politically but quite well "known" as a billionaire & successful reality TV star. People were tired of politicians, definitely tired of the Clintons, and Trump was a shot in the dark.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice . . .

 

[Jaguar]

Thanks, AZ!

Arizona Supreme Court rejects Kanye West's bid to appear on ballot | TheHill



State resident Rasean Clayton filed a lawsuit seeking to bar from appearing on the ballot, accusing the rapper of serving as an election spoiler and argued that state law barred him from running as an independent candidate because West is a registered Republican.

West’s lawyers said their client’s status as a registered Republican in Wyoming was irrelevant to getting on the Arizona ballot. They said when West filed federal election paperwork, he listed his political party as “BDY,” an abbreviation for Birthday Party.

 

[Jaguar]

Meet the first people to vote in the 2020 presidential election | TheHill

 

[The Cat]

Criminal in Chief. Dumb Mother Fucker. Treasonous Bastard.

 

[The Cat]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Thanks, AZ!

Arizona Supreme Court rejects Kanye West's bid to appear on ballot | TheHill


State resident Rasean Clayton filed a lawsuit seeking to bar from appearing on the ballot, accusing the rapper of serving as an election spoiler and argued that state law barred him from running as an independent candidate because West is a registered Republican.

I saw something in my local media that Ohio is doing the same (probably for the same reason).

 

[Jonny]

“I’ll Never Question 1938 in Germany Again”: An Ex-Republican Strategist Surveys the Wreckage of Trump’s GOP | Vanity Fair

On the latest episode of Inside the Hive, former Republican strategist Stuart Stevens described the GOP under Donald Trump as a party of cynics, stooges, racists, and obsequious enablers whose profiles in cowardice bear an uncomfortable resemblance to 1930s Germany. “When I talk to Republican politicians, I hear Franz von Papen,” he says, referencing the German chancellor who convinced Germans that so-called radical leftists were a far greater threat than Adolf Hitler. “They all know that Trump is an idiot. They all know that he’s uniquely unqualified to be president. But they convinced themselves that he was a necessity.”

Not surprisingly, Stevens, an adviser to two George W. Bush presidential campaigns and a top strategist for Mitt Romney’s 2012 bid against Barack Obama, has become the latest apostate to his party, declaring in his best-selling book, It Was All a Lie: How the Republican Party Became Donald Trump, that Republicans have sacrificed every last belief and principle they held dear on the bonfire of Trump’s vanity. And now, not even the catastrophically mismanaged coronavirus pandemic can wake them from their stupor.

“It is the combination of the anti-intellectualism, the anti-education elements of the Republican Party, and the anti-elite elements of the Republican Party, so-called, that have culminated in this toxic brew that is killing tens of thousands of Americans,” says Stevens, who recently joined the independent Never Trump organization the Lincoln Project. “I mean, more Americans are going to die because of this combination of political beliefs than major wars. This virus [is] attacking Americans. And Donald Trump is making it a lot worse, and we all know this. But Republicans won’t even stand up to defend America.”

Consequently, Stevens calls Trump a “traitor” to his country. “I really think he is against America,” he says, blaming the Republican Party for “a complete collapse of responsibility that they had to defend democracy in America.” The following is an edited transcript of two conversations with Stevens conducted by Joe Hagan...​

 

[Virtual ghost]

Yesterday there were plenty of polls that almost all and for the most part favor Biden.

Today so far:

NC: Trump +1
Oregon: Biden +12




Also here is how I see the map at this point. This is based on polls, with a few nudges in shades that are based on history or intuition.

 

[Jonny]

Below is a quick analysis comparing the historical average national polling in September versus the actual election outcome. In addition, I created three quick models based on this data to get a sense of where the race stands.

The first simply applies historical poll bias to the current polls, along with two estimates of the electoral college advantage Trump has (this year, based on polls + last year actual). Based on this, we see that 67% of the time Biden wins.

The second is a point estimate based on estimated poll bias as a function of candidate poll margin. Generally, there is a decently strong correlation between higher polling values and a reversion to the mean (0%). Based on this, we see that, depending upon which electoral college advantage you give Trump, Biden will win the tipping point state by between 0.2% and 1.4% of the vote, thus winning the election.

The third is a point estimate based on candidate poll margin and the number of undecideds in the polls. Based on this, we see that, depending upon which electoral college advantage you give Trump, Biden will win the tipping point state by up to 1.0% of the vote or lose by up to 0.2% of the vote.

For each of the three models, the righthand side includes a sensitivity to different data sets. For the first model, I graphed the calculated probability of a Biden win based on using N-years' worth of data either counting backwards from 2016 or forwards from 2020. For example, if we only used 1960 and 1964 in the model, Biden's chances of winning would be 50/50. If we used 2016 and 2012, it would be 100%. For the second and third models, I performed the 1-VAR and 2-VAR regressions using the most recent 10 election's worth of data instead of the entire 15 election cycles.

I'm not saying these models are great or even good, but they represent a way that a person could use data to construct a crude model of uncertainty.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Some polls made by top pollster came out


New Hampshire: Biden +3
Wisconsin: Biden +5
Nevada : Biden +4
Minnesota : Biden +9

 

[Z Buck McFate]

This was supposedly a paid ad on Fb yesterday. Do you suppose it's some kind of intentional bonding attempt to uneducated people (i.e. vice signalling)? Nobel and noble aren't even pronounced the same way. And its not like Trump hasn't been made fun of for making this exact mistake before.

 

[ceecee]

Not really a fan of Media Matters but I thought this was worth posting.

Roger Stone calls for Trump to seize total power if he loses the election | Media Matters for America

Stone also urged Trump to consider declaring “martial law” or invoking the Insurrection Act and then using his powers to arrest Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Apple CEO Tim Cook, “the Clintons” and “anybody else who can be proven to be involved in illegal activity.”

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

Not really a fan of Media Matters but I thought this was worth posting.

Roger Stone calls for Trump to seize total power if he loses the election | Media Matters for America

I always worried it would be the chorus of Trump supporters ultimately egging him on to pull something like this

 

[The Cat]

I always worried it would be the chorus of Trump supporters ultimately egging him on to pull something like this

That's not typically how puppet strings work, they run the other direction.

 

[The Cat]

Stone dislikes single-vent jackets (describing them as the sign of a "heathen"); says he owns 100 silver-colored neckties; and has 100 suits in storage.

Philistine.

 

[Virtual ghost]

It looks like there will be another hurricane hit into Louisiana. Plus there is a number of systems that are going over the Atlantic in the current moment.
Therefore this could turn into important election topic in a number of ways.

 

[The Cat]

It looks like there will be another hurricane hit into Louisiana. Plus there is a number of systems that are going over the Atlantic in the current moment.
Therefore this could turn into important election topic in a number of ways.

You aint just whistlin dixie man...

 

[Virtual ghost]

You aint just whistlin dixie man...

No, I am not.
Actually I have the desire to be one of those people that chase storms, what is fairly realistic since I have pretty decent qualifications for it.