It took me around 30 seconds to google the details of the poll and around a minute to scan the data. You can do this yourself, just as quickly. They asked people distinct questions about Trump and Biden, hence incorporates the input from 'your people' of negativity towards both.thanks for some data.
But also, do these polls give an option perhaps of who would merely do neither? For instance, if someone right now asked me Trump or Biden, I'd rather not vote for either one. I'm very strongly considering 3rd party/independent voting this time. I did last time as well since I liked neither candidate but I don't feel comfortable with either one of these candidates at this point.
A national election model has predicted that Donald Trump will suffer a “historic defeat†in November’s election due to the coronavirus economic recession.
The model by Oxford Economics uses unemployment, disposable income and inflation to forecast election results to predict the elections outcome.
According to the model, Mr Trump will lose in a landslide, capturing just 35 per cent of the popular vote, according to a report by CNN.
The model has predicted the winner of the popular vote in 16 of the past 18 elections and is a complete reversal of what the model was predicting before the coronavirus outbreak hit the US.
Before the public health crisis, Oxford Economics predicted that Mr Trump would win about 55 per cent of the vote, CNN reported.
Business has exploded since yesterday, the day before official lock-down ended in my area. Traffic seems to be up to pre-covid levels. Most of the businesses that had been closed for months are suddenly open, like a light switch. Fingers crossed, but (at least in my area) the economy seems to have survived the epidemic. Most people are still wearing masks when they go indoors anywhere public, and following general safe protocols NOT like they were doing before the lock-down, but the attitude of the community seems very upbeat for the first time since this started. I think Trump is going to catch the rebound and run with it.
For it to truly be a rebound, unemployment would have to go way down very quickly. I'm not saying that could never happen, but I find that unlikely. I could imagine employers being skittish about hiring people back on for a while. I don't think they would hire people if they thought they were going to have to let them go again if another wave of the virus hits.
While the media may feel that a booming stock market indicates a recovery, it's not one of the things that actually matters to people. One of the things that does matter to people is unemployment.
K
I understand how odds work. No need for the presumption that I don't.
I'd take Trump at -125 to -135. What are your odds for Joe?
Ok, so you’d give Trump maybe a 55-60% shot then. I’d take those odds, because at this point I’m closer to 50/50...too much can change between now and the election so I’m not sure of anything. And some fundamental aspects of the 2020 election are still in play, like vote-by-Mail.
But I think if the election were held today Trump would lose...I’d put his chances at maybe 20%. Recent polling in Florida and Arizona, for instance, don’t paint a rosey picture for him. As much as people like to shit on the 2016 polls, they weren’t that far off the mark.
Do you still like Mitt Romney? Would you prefer him to Trump?
Mitt Romney can get fucked.
I went to the Duval RPOF headquarters and phone banked for Romney for a couple of hours, and got asked to go to the State wide Young Republicans Convention in West Palm this weekend.
It will definitely take a permanent hit. I know a lot of people still laid off because of restrictions, but eventually I think they will be able to get back to work. I think the virus will have a similar effect on businesses as people- killing off the weak ones who were close to folding anyhow. Still, I think there will be a large jump in employment the next time we get a jobs report, though it might be a lagging indicator that takes a little while. A lot seem to be holding out for signs of an impending return to normalcy, which we are beginning to see on the horizon.
Mitt Romney can get fucked.
Ok, so you’d give Trump maybe a 55-60% shot then. I’d take those odds, because at this point I’m closer to 50/50...too much can change between now and the election so I’m not sure of anything. And some fundamental aspects of the 2020 election are still in play, like vote-by-Mail.
But I think if the election were held today Trump would lose...I’d put his chances at maybe 20%. Recent polling in Florida and Arizona, for instance, don’t paint a rosey picture for him. As much as people like to shit on the 2016 polls, they weren’t that far off the mark.
Do you still like Mitt Romney? Would you prefer him to Trump?
Trump had a 3% chance of winning against Clinton in 2016. 538 is full of shit, and you know it. They sample like ass, and manipulate the numbers to give the impression their side is winning. Rueters is much more fair.
.
Trump had a 3% chance of winning against Clinton in 2016. 538 is full of shit, and you know it. They sample like ass, and manipulate the numbers to give the impression their side is winning. Rueters is much more fair.
Also no one liked Romney, and only voted for him because he got the nomination.