Trump vs. Biden

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

This asshole better not fuck it up, although I'm sure he will.

 

[Stigmata]

This asshole better not fuck it up, although I'm sure he will.

I'm not so sure. Obama has his hand so far up the ass of the Joe Biden sockpuppet that I think the only way he can actively fuck it up is to open his mouth too much because Donny is doing plenty well at fucking himself out of reelection with every passing day. Can we all just pause and take a moment to realize just how unprecedented this moment is in American politics? This entire section of US history is going to make for some wild debates amongst high school history classes around the country.

 

[anticlimatic]

"We're ... in the middle of a pandemic that has cost us more than 85,000 jobs as of today. Lives of millions of people. Millions of people. Millions of jobs. You know, and we're in a position where, you know we just got new unemployment insurance, this morning, uh, numbers — 36.5 million claims since this crisis began."

-Joe Biden, kicking off his own Round Table discussion. The dementia is a huge problem. Makes him seem incredibly weak and frail. How he made it this far and why they haven't pushed him into dropping out for his own personal health reasons is astonishing. Reminds me of watching one of Elvis' last performances.

 

[Maou]

So you'd behave unethically to 'reveal' someone else is unethical or what you consider the so-called truth. Give me a break. lol.

Yes, because the ends justify the means in some occasions. I don't preach that I am some moral advocate, since most people are two faced. Especially politicians, and espcially journalists. At the end of the day, history is written by the winners, and it doesn't matter how ethical you are. You are just giving yourself a handicap in the name of mortality. Jesus, its such a Republican thing to do. No wonder they never grow spines, and fight.

 

[Jaguar]

Yes, because the ends justify the means in some occasions. I don't preach that I am some moral advocate, since most people are two faced. Especially politicians, and espcially journalists. At the end of the day, history is written by the winners, and it doesn't matter how ethical you are. You are just giving yourself a handicap in the name of mortality. Jesus, its such a Republican thing to do. No wonder they never grow spines, and fight.

No one should hire you.

 

[rav3n]

I'm not so sure. Obama has his hand so far up the ass of the Joe Biden sockpuppet that I think the only way he can actively fuck it up is to open his mouth too much because Donny is doing plenty well at fucking himself out of reelection with every passing day. Can we all just pause and take a moment to realize just how unprecedented this moment is in American politics? This entire section of US history is going to make for some wild debates amongst high school history classes around the country.

That's great news, if so!

 

[Jaguar]

Howard Stern says he hates Trump supporters, that Trump is ‘disgusted’ by them, and he should step down

“The oddity in all of this is the people Trump despises most, love him the most,” Stern said. “The people who are voting for Trump, for the most part … he wouldn’t even let them in a (freaking) hotel. He’d be disgusted by them. Go to Mar-a-Lago. See if there’s any people who look like you. I’m talking to you in the audience.

“I don’t hate Donald,” Stern said. “I hate you voting for him, for not having intelligence.”

Stern then said he wish Trump would step down.

 

[Jonny]

I finally figured out what everyone meant when they said trump would drain the swamp...The anticorruption reform that will take place after this dumpster fire of an administration is gone will be spectacular!

 

[Virtual ghost]

Any ideas on how Biden victory would effect relations with post Brexit UK ?

 

[Norexan]

There is no competition between Trump and Biden. If you want a planet to survive you'll choose Trump, unchain him and let him alone finish historical work for US.

 

[Jaguar]

Just-released polls contain bad news for President Trump and his Senate allies, with Joe Biden expanding the electoral map to states that have long been safe bastions for the Republican Party.

Biden is solidifying his lead over Trump in Arizona, a state not won by a Democrat in a presidential race since Bill Clinton took it in 1996, according to a new survey by OH Predictive Insights. Biden leads Trump by 7 percentage points in Arizona. The poll has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

The same survey also had bad news for Senate Republican incumbent Martha McSally, who appears to be losing ground in her reelection bid against Democrat Mark Kelly. A former astronaut and the husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords, Kelly now leads McSally by 13 points. A month earlier, the same poll showed Kelly ahead by 9 points.

 

[DiscoBiscuit]

The RCP avg of polls has it for Biden 48.4 to 43.7

The RCP betting avg has it for Trump 50.3 to 41.7

I'm inclined to lean towards the money.

Also, I cannot wait for the debates (assuming the DNC doesn't push Joe off the boat at the convention which I think is unlikely). The ads as well.

This is gonna be a fun season to watch politics.

My greater interest is in seat counts in the House after Nov.

If there's another Trump term we are guaranteed another SCOTUS seat, unless RBG gets put into a chemically induced coma and kept as a vegetable for 4 years.

 

[Jonny]

The RCP avg of polls has it for Biden 48.4 to 43.7

The RCP betting avg has it for Trump 50.3 to 41.7

I'm inclined to lean towards the money.

Of course you are, because you'd prefer Trump win. But there is no empirical basis for it.

For example, on May 20, 2016:

The RCP avg of polls had it for Clinton 44.2 to 43.0

The RCP betting avg had it for Clinton 68.0 to 32.0

 

[Norexan]

I spoke about consequences (what will happen with Biden) not about literally competence. That's why I said there is no competition because you can't have competition where if you choose another side mankind will be gone.

 

[DiscoBiscuit]

Of course you are, because you'd prefer Trump win. But there is no empirical basis for it.

For example, on May 20, 2016:

The RCP avg of polls had it for Clinton 44.2 to 43.0

The RCP betting avg had it for Clinton 68.0 to 32.0

Finding empirical bases for predicting the future is a little like dancing about architecture.

We all choose our preferred tea leaves to read, but I do think that betting odds (folks with skin in the game) are less likely to have the patina of wish casting that so much of polling seems to wear. Their only job is to make money.

To each their own.

Edit to add: I would personally bet on the outcome at this point. I wouldnt bet the farm, but I'd slap a hundo on the table. I would think my predictions on this site have been fairly solid for whatever its worth.

 

[Jonny]

Finding empirical bases for predicting the future is a little like dancing about architecture.

This is utter nonsense. Human success is founded on learning about the world through empirical observation and using that knowledge to predict the future. It's how people hunted, fished, made fire.

Edit to add: I would personally bet on the outcome at this point. I wouldnt bet the farm, but I'd slap a hundo on the table. I would think my predictions on this site have been fairly solid for whatever its worth.

I'll gladly take the other side of a bet, but you need to give me odds commensurate with your certainty. For instance, if you'd require $100 from me if Trump wins, and would pay out $100 if Trump loses, then you're essentially saying you think Trump has a 50/50 shot (i.e. that you have no additional knowledge/intuition about the future). If you thought Trump had a 75% chance of winning, then you'd be willing to put up $100 for the chance to get $33.33 from me, assuming you're risk-neutral of course.

 

[DiscoBiscuit]

This is utter nonsense. Human success is founded on learning about the world through empirical observation and using that knowledge to predict the future. It's how people hunted, fished, made fire.

K

I'll gladly take the other side of a bet, but you need to give me odds commensurate with your certainty. For instance, if you'd require $100 from me if Trump wins, and would pay out $100 if Trump loses, then you're essentially saying you think Trump has a 50/50 shot (i.e. that you have no additional knowledge/intuition about the future). If you thought Trump had a 75% chance of winning, then you'd be willing to put up $100 for the chance to get $33.33 from me, assuming you're risk-neutral of course.

I understand how odds work. No need for the presumption that I don't.

I'd take Trump at -125 to -135. What are your odds for Joe?

 

[DiscoBiscuit]

I'd like to also say I'd like to reserve the right to revisit the odds during the debates. Because duh.

 

[rav3n]

Biden’s Lead Grows Slightly As Trump’s Approval Crashes In Polls

• The Quinnipiac poll, released Wednesday, shows Biden leading Trump by 11 points, 50% to 39%, a 3 point increase since April.
• Trump’s job approval dropped by 5 points to 53% disapprove, 42% approve, while approval of his handling of coronavirus dropped by 10 points to 56% disapprove, 41% approve.
• The number of coronavirus cases in the US have grown from 432,000 on April 8 to 1.58 million on Wednesday, while deaths from the virus have grown from 14,700 to 92,300.
• Despite a surge in coverage of the Tara Reade allegations since April, Biden’s favorability has grown from even to positive, 45% favorable to 41% unfavorable, while he leads Trump on honesty, leadership and empathy.
• Biden also leads Trump by a 16 point margin on who voters think would handle coronavirus better.
• This follows polls from The Economist and Morning Consult showing Biden’s lead growing by 1 since last week, which is within the margin of error of both polls.

 

[Red Memories]

I mean, statistics are nice but they represent only a section of the population which chooses to partake in them. Especially in election polls like this.