Coronavirus

[rav3n]

I can’t understand why people do this. They are aware by now, at least I would think, about the dangers of spreading disease. Reminds me of how the Ebola outbreak occurred last time. They’re told “ Don’t eat bush meat! ( monkeys)” Yet they do it anyway. My immediate thought is that I’ve just never been desperate enough but on second thought I imagine there about a zillion things easier to catch( than monkeys.

In the instance of animal markets ( I’ve seen them. They are atrocious) I can only imagine it’s yet another example of immediate gratification at the expense of one’s future; humanities greatest foe.

Relative to bush meat, considering the poverty levels in Africa, people will consume what's cheap and available. Often enough, it's apes like gorillas who as you know, are substantial in size and easy to catch. That said, people aren't told what type of meat they're buying since bush meat is primarily poached herbivores.

But in China, people know what animal flesh they're buying so it's a case of curiosity and/or preference for the exotic. Myself (no, I don't live in China, lol), I'm open to trying all sorts of meats but not from apes, monkeys and many other animals and only through legal and sanitary avenues.

As it stands, China has banned the sale of live animals in markets across Wuhan.

Wuhan virus: China bans food markets selling live animals like wolves - Business Insider

 

[rav3n]

They've been doing that for a while though, right? Then, all of a sudden, this strange disease pops up. So, I wonder if this theory about food sanitation is a sufficient explanation all on its own. That's why I was thinking the trade deal problems that they're having with the US might be to blame.

Consider SARS and MERS. Same problem.

 

[cascadeco]

We've been 'ripe' for a new virus for a while now; health experts have stated for years/decades that a major one will eventually happen, and have been warning for a while re antibiotic resistance, viral/bacterial mutations, etc. Microbes and viruses have a strong incentive to evolve.

 

[Grand Admiral Crunch]

Consider SARS and MERS. Same problem.

The trade deals have effected the food supply. I don't see why people want to ignore the circumstances in which this disease has manifested.

The Trade War Cost U.S. Farmers Their China Market. A Deal Might Not Bring It Back
By
Grady McGregor



U.S. farmers have paid a steep price during Washington's months-long trade war with Beijing, losing almost two-thirds of their exports to China. Now, however, there is hope as trade talks—with U.S. agriculture squarely in the center—seem to be closing in on a deal.

But even if an agreement comes to fruition, changes in the world agriculture market may mean that those farmers will still lose out.

This week, President Donald Trump demanded China buy up to $50 billion in U.S. agricultural products annually, and China reacted with reluctance, arguing that it would be better to allow market forces to dictate purchases after tariffs are eased.

This mirrors news from several weeks ago, when China denied President Trump's claims that the country would purchase $50 billion in agricultural products as part of the trade agreement. Reports pegged the figure nearer to $20 billion, which would be much closer to the $24 billion in agricultural products the U.S. shipped to China at its peak in 2014—and more than double the $9 billion sent last year.

Those trade figures are why analysts like Darin Friedrichs, senior Asia commodity analyst at INTL FCSTONE in Shanghai, think a $50 billion guarantee was always unlikely. But there are others forces at play. In China, the desire to defer to market whims may reflect the country's increasingly diversified food supply; the country has accounted for the decrease in U.S. agricultural imports by increasing trade with other countries.

“Agriculture is one of those things that the U.S. side really has to address. It’s probably the most publicized, or well-known, effect of the trade war,” Friedrichs said. “[But] basically, over the past year and a half, China has been really aggressive in trying to diversify where [it's] buying from.”
The trade war hits

The trade war began in July 2018, when the U.S. levied $34 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods. China immediately responded by placing a 25% tariff on soybeans, along with taxes on a slew of agricultural and other products. Rounds of retaliatory tariffs over the following months raised soybean tariffs as high as 33% for U.S. producers, and pork tariffs as high as 72%.

Aaron Krauter, a farmer in North Dakota and former head of the state’s farm service agency, says that at the peak of the U.S.-China soybean trade, farmers in his area were sending 80-90% of their soybeans to China. Now, he says, the soybean market has evaporated—and other crops have also been hurt either through tariffs or from secondary impacts.

It’s a huge loss,” Krauter said. “If it’s soybeans, [the impact of the trade war is] really obvious. If it’s wheat, it’s kind of obvious. If it’s other oil seed crops, like canola, they’re saying, 'Wait a minute, what happened to our market? What happened to our prices?'”

U.S. farmers might have initially hoped that the trade war would lead to less trade restrictions with China, Friedrichs says, but now they worry that it could mean a complete loss of the market.

Farmers thought, "'We’re going to get rid of these silly restrictions that China is putting on our products and we’re going to have this huge market [in China],' but that hasn’t happened,” said Friedrichs. “We’re a year and a half into this, and it made China realize [it was] way too dependent on U.S. beans.”
Diversification and African Swine Flu

Indeed, since the trade war began, the Chinese agriculture market has transformed.

Amid the U.S. conflict, China seems to have realized that food security means having diversification of sources, says Friedrichs of INTL FCSTONE. “China has been really aggressive in trying to diversify," he said. "So [after a trade deal], the market might be open for the U.S., but [American producers] are going to face a lot of competition from all these new players.”

China has worked around the U.S. agriculture tariffs by expanding relationships with South American countries like Argentina and Brazil. At the same time, China's pursued its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a trillion-dollar-plus policy aimed at developing infrastructure and investment projects around the world. Through BRI, China has established ties with dozens of countries in Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe, which has opened new markets for agricultural imports.

“We’ve lost those markets, they’ve gone someplace else, they’ve built up those relationships,” Krauter, the North Dakota farmer, said. “It’s going to take years, years for that to come back.”

Another factor that's reshaped China’s agricultural market in the past months is African Swine Fever (ASF).

Since arriving in China in August last year, ASF has devastated domesticated pig herds across the country. The country has lost as much as 60-70% of its female pigs, and slashed roughly 25% of its pork production.

China is the world’s largest consumer of pork, and ASF has created a massive shortage in the country’s protein supplies. That means U.S. pork producers will stand to benefit from a trade deal; China needs its pork. But other U.S. farmers might not experience the same rebound in the event of a deal because China has fewer pigs to feed.

“Because of the African Swine Fever, there is just not that much need for soybeans and corn [to feed pigs],” said Friedrichs. “The U.S. is trying to push China to buy huge amounts of soybeans, but China is saying, sure, but we don’t really need those.”

Even with these trends underway, there's tremendous pressure on the U.S. side to strike a deal. The government has provided significant subsidies to farmers to offset their losses during the trade war, but a deal with China would provide a more sustainable solution.

The U.S. is certainly not alone in feeling a sense of urgency.

Edgar Wayne Johnson, an agricultural consultant based in Beijing, says China's ASF troubles are reaching a tipping point. With skyrocketing prices of pork and other meat, he says China is entering a food crisis and will be forced to come to the negotiating table.

"Eventually China is going to blink,” said Johnson. “The people of China are taking up the slack, and I don’t know how long it can last."
More must-read stories from Fortune:

 

[rav3n]

The trade deals have effected the food supply. I don't see why people want to ignore the circumstances in which this disease has manifested.

Have you seen this correlation?

 

[Grand Admiral Crunch]

Have you seen this correlation?

Correlation is not causation, but causation will have correlation.

 

[Luminous]

That's great.

You know I hear it starts with an earthquake. Then Birds, and snakes on aeroplanes.
Thank goodness Lenny Bruce is not afraid. Be like the eye of a hurricane. Listen to yourself churn. The world serves its own needs, Jag, don't miserve your own needs. Speed it up a notch, speed, grunt, no, strength--The ladder starts to clatter:
With a fear of height, down, height...? Oh man what a wire in a fire, represent the seven games and a government for hire and a combat site. It's like. I think you may be onto something. It IS the end of the world as we know. How do you feel? I feel...okayish.

Lenny Bruce

If he's where I'm going when I die, I'm okay with catching this virus...

 

[rav3n]

Correlation is not causation, but causation will have correlation.

It's called a spurious correlation.

Zoonosis is a thing. Many deadly modern diseases and pathogens have their roots from mutated germs jumping species including but not exclusive to Ebola, HIV, Salmonella, E.coli and Hep A. Are you going to find spurious correlations between these and current events?

 

[Grand Admiral Crunch]

It's called a spurious correlation.

Zoonosis is a thing. Many deadly modern diseases and pathogens have their roots from mutated germs jumping species including but not exclusive to Ebola, HIV, Salmonella, E.coli and Hep A. Are you going to find spurious correlations between these and current events?

Nobody is denying zoonosis. This is a theory. Doesn't mean it's right. Doesn't mean it is wrong, but you should consider things before you shoot them down for no reason. You are neysaying just to neysay. "Nay!!!" as you would say. It's all so obvious now.

 

[rav3n]

Nobody is denying zoonosis. This is a theory. Doesn't mean it's right. Doesn't mean it is wrong, but you should consider things before you shoot them down for no reason. You are neysaying just to neysay. "Nay!!!" as you would say. It's all so obvious now.

It's technically a hypothesis, albeit more commonly known as a 'conspiracy theory'. I rely on logic and proven science.

 

[Grand Admiral Crunch]

It's technically a hypothesis, albeit more commonly known as a 'conspiracy theory'.

I don't know what makes it a conspiracy theory. It would be an unintended consequence of the Chinese putting tariffs on American goods.

I rely on logic and proven science.

Apparently not.

 

[rav3n]

I don't know what makes it a conspiracy theory. It would be an unintended consequence of the Chinese putting tariffs on American goods.

Other food exporting countries exist, including Canada.

E - I'm going to add something else. The Chinese aren't buying exotic animal meat because of the lack of meat. Exotic meats cost more than mundane meats.

 

[Yuurei]

Relative to bush meat, considering the poverty levels in Africa, people will consume what's cheap and available. Often enough, it's apes like gorillas who as you know, are substantial in size and easy to catch. That said, people aren't told what type of meat they're buying since bush meat is primarily poached herbivores.

But in China, people know what animal flesh they're buying so it's a case of curiosity and/or preference for the exotic. Myself (no, I don't live in China, lol), I'm open to trying all sorts of meats but not from apes, monkeys and many other animals and only through legal and sanitary avenues.

As it stands, China has banned the sale of live animals in markets across Wuhan.

Wuhan virus: China bans food markets selling live animals like wolves - Business Insider

Ah, good point. It hadn’t occurred to me that people cannot tell what animal pre-butchered mear comes from.


From a news article: “ As of 8 p.m. local time (1200 GMT) on Saturday, the death toll in China had risen to 42, authorities reported. Some 1,372 people in China had been infected with the virus - traced to a seafood market in Wuhan that was illegally selling wildlife”

To say that this infuriating does not cut it.

I live in s very multi-cultural area. Here we tend to joke about Chinese and Indian restaurants, grocery stores and Chem-labs being dangerously insanity but of course any and all serious discussion is often shut down as “ Racism and stereotypes” and I would always think “ Okay well, you go ahead and let this shit go until we’re living in an apocalyptic wasteland surround by the corpses if our friends and family and then you can call me racist all yo7 like if it will make you feel better.”

Of course, I should add that it’s less of a ‘race’ thing and more of an unchecked capitalism thing. The U.S. corperations who turn a blind eye because the labor is cheap is just as responsible.
Proper procedure and sanitization are extra money and effort. I wonder if there is correlation between the two largest countries ( in population) and a lack of safety concern? Perhaps their governments have a hard time caring ( or even seeing) their citizens as people. They are expendable as their are another billion waiting to take their place.

Personally, I think the people who allow this to go on deserve to be executed for cutting safety measures whoch endanger the world for profit. This isn’t a fucking joke.

 

[Grand Admiral Crunch]

I'm not sure why you're having trouble understanding the article and the hypothesis, but I'll try to lay it out more clearly for you.

For reference, just pulling some definitions from a quick Google search so we don't have to argue about the meaning of words:

Hypothesis - A supposition or proposed explanation made on the basis of limited evidence as a starting point for further investigation. A proposition made as a basis for reasoning, without any assumption of its truth.

Conspiracy Theory - A belief that some covert but influential organization is responsible for a circumstance or event.

The hypothesis is that because "ASF has created a massive shortage in the country’s protein supplies" that the Chinese people have been eating more less commonly consumed animals which may have expanded exposure to diseases from these animals. Some of the food problems may be directly or indirectly related to changing from US suppliers to other countries.

Background
"China is the world’s largest consumer of pork", and U.S. suppliers face "pork tariffs as high as 72%". "The country has lost as much as 60-70% of its female pigs, and slashed roughly 25% of its pork production."

Investigating some of your points more closely, I came across Charts of the Day: China’s Growing Meat Consumption - Caixin Global. I thought that was interesting as well. I see the decrease in meat consumption although it doesn't seem super dramatic other than it's decreasing when it probably should have been increasing instead. This decrease may be a bigger deal than one might think from the graph given some of the language from the articles.

Also, of interest about alternative food supplies, from the link "After Beijing hit American soybean producers with a 25% import levy on July as part of the tit-for-tat tariff, China has mostly been turning to Brazil for additional imports. But as Brazil approaches the end of its season and Argentina’s crop has been devastated by drought, analysts are pessimistic that they will be able to boost shipments." From the link, "China accounted for 60% of [the US] total soybean exports in the 2016-17 crop year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture." I could pull other articles, but the assumption that there's sufficient free supply of food from other sources to completely offset reductions in US imports is an assumption with no evidence given to back it up. I haven't investigated if swapping suppliers could have resulted in ASF being introduced in the first place. It's not a leap to expect unintended consequences when changes are made to extremely large and presumably complex supply chains.

One more final definition from Google: 'A straw man is a form of argument and an informal fallacy based on giving the impression of refuting an opponent's argument, while actually refuting an argument that was not presented by that opponent. One who engages in this fallacy is said to be "attacking a straw man"'

The graph is irrelevant, you could trot that out for global warming, the incidence of cancer for Omezaprole, or the increase of lead poisoning in children in Flint MI when the water supply was changed.

I'd appreciate responses to be applicable to the topic and thoughts on whether there's any relationship between the tariff war and the Corona virus rather than unrelated generic arguments that offer no worth or evidence into the discussion.

 

[á´…eparted]

 

[rav3n]

Ah, good point. It hadn’t occurred to me that people cannot tell what animal pre-butchered mear comes from.


From a news article: “ As of 8 p.m. local time (1200 GMT) on Saturday, the death toll in China had risen to 42, authorities reported. Some 1,372 people in China had been infected with the virus - traced to a seafood market in Wuhan that was illegally selling wildlife”

To say that this infuriating does not cut it.

I live in s very multi-cultural area. Here we tend to joke about Chinese and Indian restaurants, grocery stores and Chem-labs being dangerously insanity but of course any and all serious discussion is often shut down as “ Racism and stereotypes” and I would always think “ Okay well, you go ahead and let this shit go until we’re living in an apocalyptic wasteland surround by the corpses if our friends and family and then you can call me racist all yo7 like if it will make you feel better.”

Of course, I should add that it’s less of a ‘race’ thing and more of an unchecked capitalism thing. The U.S. corperations who turn a blind eye because the labor is cheap is just as responsible.
Proper procedure and sanitization are extra money and effort. I wonder if there is correlation between the two largest countries ( in population) and a lack of safety concern? Perhaps their governments have a hard time caring ( or even seeing) their citizens as people. They are expendable as their are another billion waiting to take their place.

Personally, I think the people who allow this to go on deserve to be executed for cutting safety measures whoch endanger the world for profit. This isn’t a fucking joke.

It's cost but it's also tradition.

 

[Yuurei]

It's cost but it's also tradition.

Some traditions need to change with progress. I can only hope we learn something from this but I don’t have much faith.

 

[rav3n]

Some traditions need to change with progress. I can only hope we learn something from this but I don’t have much faith.

No doubt. That said, China has banned live animals in Wuhan markets so that's a progressive step considering how live = fresh/tasty is infused into Chinese culture.

 

[Red Herring]

Correct me if I'm wrong but IIRC from history and biology classes most worldwide epidemics of the last millenium eventually started out in China. A question of a huge country with lots of people living in close proximity with farm animals and having access to trade routes, etc. Not really that unusual or surprising for something to start there. Also, I am not aware of the US-China trade war leading to any serious supply issues let alone nutrition issues. This isn't North Korea in the nineties, you know. They produce their own food and trade with just about everyone around the world.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Some will probably not like me for this but I am just going to say what is on my mind.


Situations like this one are possibly the main reason why I think the government should be heavily involved into curing it's own people and why market just isn't the right tool here. As I said: in the endgame healthcare comes down to national security and that is just how it is. On other hand only the government of people has the potential and resources to truly handle this kind of crisis when they hit. I am perfectly aware that this is warzone mentality talking out of me but I just can't help myself. Life isn't fair or really predictable so everyone should be able to have their health protected as much as possible. What requires strategy, prevention and determination on so big scale that genuine market can't really provide it without becoming government. If someone has this kind of virus are you just going to say to the person that they have no coverage and let them lose into the general population if they are broke !?