Cold war 2.0

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Strategic analysis.

 

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By the numbers: The MEPs lighting up TikTok

Europe’s far right uses TikTok to win youth vote

After the US started the process of banning the app it seems that EU is also having some thoughts about the topic.




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Ukraine updates: Russia altering Crimean identity — Amnesty

North Korea fires missiles as Blinken visits Seoul

Escaping to Thailand: Fleeing military service in Myanmar

 

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Putin calls on FSB to hunt Russians who joined Ukraine’s army

Europe needs an endgame for its China policy

In historic shift, Bulgaria seeks US help to escape Russia’s nuclear grasp

Germany detains two IS suspects over Swedish attack plan

Martin Sellner: Far-right Austrian banned from Germany

Taiwan's vice president-elect visits Czech Republic

Ukraine updates: US won't let Kyiv fail, Pentagon chief says

 

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And now a little bit of an update about my president.

In short there is a complete escalation of tensions. As all legal analysts where saying the president can't be on the ballot for the parliament and new being new Prime-minister. Since the job is that you oversee the elections and the new PM gives the oath in front of you. Also when you become president of Croatia you can't be member of any party, exactly so that you are seen as neutral and genuine voice of the people. However center left since it lags in the polls is pushing the current president as their top candidate for the elections, especially since he is ex PM and ex leader of the party. Thus they see only him as someone who can perhaps close large polling gap.


Therefore for that reason supreme court gathered quickly to give their opinion on can the president be the candidate. In other words they basically just confirmed that he can't be the candidate as long as he is president. Since that is conflict of interests. Therefore after that the president stood in front of the cameras and said what he thinks about them: These people are gangsters! I know a good chink of those people and let me tell you openly that this is freaking mob installed there by the center right! They are their extended hand and they will do whatever the party ask of them! This is like when a mob takes your kid and says you will never see him again if you don't behave as they want!Therefore I don't really care about their opinion and I will be the candidate! And how will I give the oath !? As far as care I can take it in front of a pig! Since even that should be better than the victory of center right .... etc etc. In other words when my president removes the foot from brakes not even Trump himself can't match that level of rant. The stuff he has said are basically unthinkable in developed world.



But the story doesn't end there. It is public secret that the center left is in serious internal problems and thus it has money problems. For this reason the party has decided to make a coalition with libertarian right parties. Which should bring in quite a number of donors. However over the last few days those small parties got scared of what is going on and thus they have jumped the ship. What was done due to genuine shock and the fear that they will implode if they stay in the mix. Since the odds are that most of their voters will go to the center right, what is indeed quite likely under the circumstances. Especially since center left didn't stop at this, later the top officials of party have started to say that we need a new republic. The institutions are so full of the influence of center right that we need a whole new system and new constitution. Plus there were some other "big ideas" in the mix. Therefore those smaller parties panicked one by one and just jumped off the ship. Since by their own words all that has happened over the last few days is simply nuts, plus it brakes constitution.


However with loosing those parties that basically means that long shoot of center left to win elections in a few weeks is basically gone. You can even see masked panic in the posts of their voters, since they know that the party messed up completely. What will probably only speed up further decay of the party. Because there just wouldn't be enough people and money to run a major big tent party. They tried to make some kind of a controversy that should bring attention, but they went too far. What was done basically since the main political fight is moving to the zone between center right and far right, therefore there needs to be some diverting of attention. In other words far right parities when summed are stronger then center left. While the green progressives have fallen into single digits. What means that with current events the whole left is basically toast. There is no point in sugarcoating what is basically obvious.

 

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US to Ukraine: Heed our words, not our actions

Von der Leyen dilutes plan to use Russian assets to buy Ukraine arms

 

[JAVO]

Some of the more interesting points from today's ISW analysis:

• Several Russian financial, economic, and military indicators suggest that Russia is preparing for a large-scale conventional conflict with NATO, not imminently but likely on a shorter timeline than what some Western analysts have initially posited.
• The Russian military continues to undertake structural reforms to simultaneously support the war in Ukraine while expanding Russia’s conventional capabilities in the long term in preparation for a potential future large-scale conflict with NATO.
• GUR reportedly conducted a drone strike against a Russian air base in Saratov Oblast on March 20 amid further indications that Ukrainian drone strikes within Russia are achieving limited asymmetric effects against Russian military assets and economic output.
• Kremlin-affiliated actors in the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region of Gagauzia are invoking narratives that mirror previous Russian claims about Ukraine in the years leading up to Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, likely as part of the Kremlin’s wider hybrid efforts to destabilize Moldova.

A bit concerning:

Polish President Andrzej Duda emphasized in a March 20 interview with CNBC that Putin is intensifying efforts to shift Russia to a war economy with the intention of being able to attack NATO as early as 2026 or 2027, citing unspecified German research.[7] Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen stated on February 9 that new intelligence indicates that Russia may attempt to attack a NATO country within three to five years, an accelerated timeline from NATO’s reported assessment in 2023.

Institute for the Study of War

Several Russian financial, economic, and military indicators suggest that Russia is preparing for a large-scale conventional conflict with NATO, not imminently but likely on a shorter timeline than what some Western analysts have initially posited. The

www.understandingwar.org

 

[SensEye]

That all seems crazy to me. Russia would get crushed in any conventional war with NATO. Russia is benefiting from NATO incompetence as they paly real politic. NATO (even ex USA assuming Trump is at the helm) would easily destroy Russia if they were attacked and thereby galvanized to fight.

Right now, Russia can rattle their nuclear sabre and spineless NATO cowers on cue. That only works if NATO is left alone and politicians can play their games. But even today's clueless masses would get irked if bombs started falling on them.

 

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In Kupiansk, Ukrainians fear the return of Russian troops

France pitches radical joint EU borrowing plan to pay for defense

EU ambassadors flinch at Ukraine free-trade compromise

As Germany’s coalition squabbles, Scholz vows EU will ‘stand together’ on Ukraine

EU glass fiber makers seek protection as China ramps up output in Egypt

Leo Varadkar to step down as Irish prime minister

What does the new security law mean for Hong Kong?

Iran: UN exposes 'crimes' committed against protesters

Syria: Suicide drones increasingly targeting civilians

 

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That all seems crazy to me. Russia would get crushed in any conventional war with NATO. Russia is benefiting from NATO incompetence as they paly real politic. NATO (even ex USA assuming Trump is at the helm) would easily destroy Russia if they were attacked and thereby galvanized to fight.

Right now, Russia can rattle their nuclear sabre and spineless NATO cowers on cue. That only works if NATO is left alone and politicians can play their games. But even today's clueless masses would get irked if bombs started falling on them.

It isn't that simple. In other words: since he is preparing for possible open war he is boosting his friends and pawns around NATO. Since then they can run on the basis of "we will talk to him before things get out of hand". However if those people manage to get into some high office they create havoc (see posts about my president). You are from the country that doesn't have a substantial pro-Russia party so all of this doesn't make too much sense to you. But in wider picture it does make sense if you are playing hybrid games.

 

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[Red Herring]

It isn't that simple. In other words: since he is preparing for possible open war he is boosting his friends and pawns around NATO. Since then they can run on the basis of "we will talk to him before things get out of hand". However if those people manage to get into some kind of high office they create havoc (see posts about my president). You are from the country has doesn't have a substantial pro-Russia party so all of this doesn't make too much sense to you. But in wider picture it does make sense if you are playing hybrid games.

On top of that, team blue being militarily "superior" to team red does not imply that a potential war would be over soon or wouldn't cause an enormous number of casualties. Some tend to forget that. Germany vs world was doomed from the start but, heck, it took a lot of time and e whole lot of blood.

 

[Virtual ghost]

On top of that, team blue being militarily "superior" to team red does not imply that a potential war would be over soon or wouldn't cause an enormous number of casualties. Some tend to forget that. Germany vs world was doomed from the start but, heck, it took a lot of time and e whole lot of blood.

But to be honest I doubt that he will launch direct attack on NATO. If he manages to severely weaken it internally then maybe it will, but otherwise I don't really see the option as realistic. Even Ukraine was basically going too far and now he is stuck there. Therefore he will play mind games and places pawn around the place before he makes another larger move.

However Russia, China and the satellites going to war with the west somewhere in the global south ... that can happen. In a sense it is already happening as many proxy wars that are ragging there. However even the direct clashes aren't fully off the table there. Because third world is "playground" since the colonial era.

 

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