SillySapienne
`~~Philosoflying~~`
- Joined
- Jan 14, 2008
- Messages
- 9,801
- MBTI Type
- ENFP
- Enneagram
- 4w5
Hold up.If you strip away all the fanciness, Monty Hall boils down to the fact that the host eliminates one of the wrong answers. His guess is not random.
So, what started out for you as a 1 in 3 guess becomes a 1 in 2 guess, if you decide to switch doors. If you do not switch doors, your guess still remains in its original 1 in 3 flavor, despite the host removing a door.
Hah, don't know if that makes it any clearer!
Perhaps it was explained to me wrong, just took the time to skim through most of the article.
So, if you were to pick a door with a goat behind it, would the host open that door, or would he open the other door with the goat behind it?
Will go to check them out.We've covered similar issues earlier (shameless self-promotion):
Simple Puzzles to Stump People
http://www.typologycentral.com/foru...-accident-grrr-frequentists-vs-bayesians.html