2020 Democratic Party primary thread

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

Amy out, but at least she was smart enough to endorse Biden immediately.

These people are really freaking out about Bernie now.

I bet Biden promised her VP or some other cabinet spot.

 

[Jaguar]

These people are really freaking out about Bernie now.

I bet Biden promised her VP or some other cabinet spot.

Unlike yourself, I don't consider playing a game of chess "freaking out." Each decision is but a move on the board.

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

Unlike yourself, I don't consider playing a game of chess "freaking out." Each decision is but a move on the board.

Not chess, poker.

 

[Jaguar]

Not chess, poker.

To each his own.

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

To each his own.

poker, mistah spaaahk!

 

[Jaguar]

poker, mistah spaaahk!

 

[Totenkindly]

Amy out, but at least she was smart enough to endorse Biden immediately. I wonder if Obama spoke with her, too.

Obama is notorious for "staying out" publicly at least and I had read was specifically not picking sides yet publicly... Not sure about privately.

Considering the quantity of withdrawals right before Super Tuesday instead of waiting until the votes are cast, though, it does make you wonder what agreements were made in terms of cabinet positions and the like from Biden's camp. I mean, obviously Pete and Amy were not going to win the nom, so...

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

Biden most likely offered them the following:

Amy attorney general
Pete VP

would be my guesses. And should Biden be nominee, I expect Kamala Harris might get a cabinet nod as well.

 

[ceecee]

Obama is notorious for "staying out" publicly at least and I had read was specifically not picking sides yet publicly... Not sure about privately.

Considering the quantity of withdrawals right before Super Tuesday instead of waiting until the votes are cast, though, it does make you wonder what agreements were made in terms of cabinet positions and the like from Biden's camp. I mean, obviously Pete and Amy were not going to win the nom, so...

Right. All of this flailing and desperate maneuvering should speak volumes to voters about just how anguished the lib center is. And how their power is deteriorating daily.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Right. All of this flailing and desperate maneuvering should speak volumes to voters about just how anguished the lib center is. And how their power is deteriorating daily.

I hope so. I guess by Wednesday, we will have a better idea.

I'm pretty sure Biden would get crushed by Trump unless this Corona virus thing gets particularly out of hand or the stock market continues to nosedive. Those aren't things I want to rely on.

I think Trump would have way more fun with that than the "spooky socialist" stuff.

"I love kids jumping on my lap."

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

I hope so. I guess by Wednesday, we will have a better idea.

I'm pretty sure Biden would get crushed by Trump unless this Corona virus thing gets particularly out of hand or the stock market continues to nosedive. Those aren't things I want to rely on.

there's a possibility, however remote and unlikely, that the total support for Sanders has been underestimated and he could still come out of this with a majority of delegates, in which case all of the efforts to derail him will prove pointless anyway. It's unlikely but I'd love to see that outcome. People assume all of the voters who had a moderate as a first choice will step in line with another remaining moderate, but voters' second preferences don't always match their first preference in an ideological litmus test. Another unlikely scenario, but I'd love to see these last minute dropouts backfire on Biden and Bloomberg, like what if a majority of the voters planning on supporting Pete or Amy had Bernie as second choice? Unlikely, but you never know.

I really hate having to compare him to Trump but I'm seeing a lot of parallels to 2016 and how Trump just kept winning and winning against supposedly more electable, more conservative Republicans and surprising media pundits. With every win, the media and Republican establishment freaked out more and more.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Amy out, but at least she was smart enough to endorse Biden immediately. I wonder if Obama spoke with her, too.

It seems it came to what I considered more likely. Dropping before Super Tuesday.
I mean she would take the few percentages across the map, which could be important and worth more than her entire state if they go to the right person. While the state got solved with endorsement.


The only unstrategic element in all this is that all of this is kinda obvious "Never Sanders" logic. What could backfire pretty badly, especially now when all eggs are going into one basket.

There will never be a Biden Sanders ticket. However, either one of them may offer Pete the VP spot.

I think Pete has been running for VP from the very start of this race.

Perhaps, but I will dare to say I have seen stranger things than this. But yes, Pete could be a replacement in the mix.

 

[ceecee]

there's a possibility, however remote and unlikely, that the total support for Sanders has been underestimated and he could still come out of this with a majority of delegates, in which case all of the efforts to derail him will prove pointless anyway. It's unlikely but I'd love to see that outcome.

I really hate having to compare him to Trump but I'm seeing a lot of parallels to 2016 and how Trump just kept winning and winning against supposedly more electable, more conservative Republicans and surprising media pundits.

They'll never grasp that. Not the hardcore libs. They'll just keep going to centrist letter writing campaigns. Amazing turnouts. Thousands of people holding hands and chanting “Better things aren’t possible”! They'll get that ultra right wing, ultra-nationalist, authoritarian fascist the centrists all want so badly.

 

[Virtual ghost]

there's a possibility, however remote and unlikely, that the total support for Sanders has been underestimated and he could still come out of this with a majority of delegates, in which case all of the efforts to derail him will prove pointless anyway. It's unlikely but I'd love to see that outcome. People assume all of the voters who had a moderate as a first choice will step in line with another remaining moderate, but voters' second preferences don't always match their first preference in an ideological litmus test. Another unlikely scenario, but I'd love to see these last minute dropouts backfire on Biden and Bloomberg, like what if a majority of the voters planning on supporting Pete or Amy had Bernie as second choice? Unlikely, but you never know.

I really hate having to compare him to Trump but I'm seeing a lot of parallels to 2016 and how Trump just kept winning and winning against supposedly more electable, more conservative Republicans and surprising media pundits. With every win, the media and Republican establishment freaked out more and more.

This is kinda why I put on the table mix of Biden/Sanders ticket (or reverse of that). It is possible that Bernie will be close but he will not have a clear majority. Therefore just dumping Bernie could prove to be very dangerous for the party and GE. What then creates this unlikely mix.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Btw. I never saw Deval Patrick quiting.

 

[Totenkindly]

there's a possibility, however remote and unlikely, that the total support for Sanders has been underestimated and he could still come out of this with a majority of delegates, in which case all of the efforts to derail him will prove pointless anyway. It's unlikely but I'd love to see that outcome. People assume all of the voters who had a moderate as a first choice will step in line with another remaining moderate, but voters' second preferences don't always match their first preference in an ideological litmus test. Another unlikely scenario, but I'd love to see these last minute dropouts backfire on Biden and Bloomberg, like what if a majority of the voters planning on supporting Pete or Amy had Bernie as second choice? Unlikely, but you never know.

Reading from various angles, I've kinda given up on second-guessing all this. From the last things I've seen, Bernie had the highest support across the party, and maybe in a GE against Trump on a national level as well, but not in the battleground states that are going to determine the actual 2020 election. In the battleground states only, the last polling I saw had Biden up 8 on Trump and Bernie only 3-4, which is damned close to the margin of error. So that seems to be driving the concern.

[I think the national parties' purpose (ideally) -- when the electoral college is still part of our selection of the presidency -- would be just be to ensure that their party has a competitive nominee on the national level rather than having someone selected via state primaries who cannot win a national election -- but between the parties' incompetence and corruption in recent years and then voters losing faith in the party heads, they have been incapable of playing that role.]

Let's face it, you can get as many zillions of Democratic votes as you want in California and it won't change the election outcome. We already found that out. The battlegrounds are going to determine who wins.

That was polling I saw maybe Fri/Sat. So I have no idea what it is now. Things might have already changed. But the chances for a contested nom are way way up.

Whatever is going to be, will be. My concern is more that things are going right where they were in 2016, and the centrists hate the Berners and vice versa, each feeling like each is destroying the country and/or stealing the nomination from the other group. (Honestly, neither of them is my first-choice candidate for the nom, but I know how I'm voting in a GE.) With all the vilification and disgust, regardless of who wins the nom, Trump's going to win the GE if this train wreck keeps up. Good job, team.

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

This is kinda why I put on the table mix of Biden/Sanders ticket (or reverse of that). It is possible that Bernie will be close but he will not have a clear majority. Therefore just dumping Bernie could prove to be very dangerous for the party and GE. What then creates this unlikely mix.

I can't see either wanting to run as VP for the other. Biden isn't going to want to be VP (again), especially under a Sanders presidency. Likewise Sanders won't want to give up the senate to be VP to a moderate.

The age factor will likely prevent the party from choosing two senior running mates. It's most definitely going to be someone like Kamala or Pete for VP if Bloomberg, Biden or Bernie are nominee.

I do agree with you that the stop Sanders movement could very well backfire on the moderates. They assume all of Amy's and Pete's supporters had another moderate as a second choice. While more likely with Amy supporters, I'm not sure this is really going to be the case for Pete supporters. People also don't like feeling like their votes are taken for granted. And people also overestimate the importance endorsements play for primary voters. Even the big, key endorsements from former presidents and retired statesmen. No one really cared that Kissinger endorsed Clinton in 2016. I mean some people cared, but I doubt it swayed a ton of voters to drop Bernie or Trump for Clinton.

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

Reading from various angles, I've kinda given up on second-guessing all this. From the last things I've seen, Bernie had the highest support across the party, and maybe in a GE against Trump on a national level as well, but not in the battleground states that are going to determine the actual 2020 election. In the battleground states only, the last polling I saw had Biden up 8 on Trump and Bernie only 3-4, which is damned close to the margin of error. So that seems to be driving the concern.

[I think the national parties' purpose (ideally) -- when the electoral college is still part of our selection of the presidency -- would be just be to ensure that their party has a competitive nominee on the national level rather than having someone selected via state primaries who cannot win a national election -- but between the parties' incompetence and corruption in recent years and then voters losing faith in the party heads, they have been incapable of playing that role.]

Let's face it, you can get as many zillions of Democratic votes as you want in California and it won't change the election outcome. We already found that out. The battlegrounds are going to determine who wins.

That was polling I saw maybe Fri/Sat. So I have no idea what it is now. Things might have already changed. But the chances for a contested nom are way way up.

Whatever is going to be, will be. My concern is more that things are going right where they were in 2016, and the centrists hate the Berners and vice versa, each feeling like each is destroying the country and/or stealing the nomination from the other group. (Honestly, neither of them is my first-choice candidate for the nom, but I know how I'm voting in a GE.) With all the vilification and disgust, regardless of who wins the nom, Trump's going to win the GE if this train wreck keeps up. Good job, team.

Either way this has been fun to watch. Contested conventions are mostly a thing of the past so it would be interesting from a historian's perspective to see that play out in the current year.

 

[Virtual ghost]

I can't see either wanting to run as VP for the other. Biden isn't going to want to be VP (again), especially under a Sanders presidency. Likewise Sanders won't want to give up the senate to be VP to a moderate.

The age factor will likely prevent the party from choosing two senior running mates. It's most definitely going to be someone like Kamala or Pete for VP if Bloomberg, Biden or Bernie are nominee.

I admit that I am from the place where all of this is more flexible but it just that I would never say "Never" for this mix. Especially if Biden leads, Sanders/Biden really isn't realistic.
The thing is that in a few months people like Pete could be forgotten and they never had too much support.


I mean all of this is unlikely, especially due to age. But it isn't 100% impossible.

I do agree with you that the stop Sanders movement could very well backfire on the moderates. They assume all of Amy's and Pete's supporters had another moderate as a second choice. While more likely with Amy supporters, I'm not sure this is really going to be the case for Pete supporters. People also don't like feeling like their votes are taken for granted. And people also overestimate the importance endorsements play for primary voters. Even the big, key endorsements from former presidents and retired statesmen. No one really cared that Kissinger endorsed Clinton in 2016. I mean some people cared, but I doubt it swayed a ton of voters to drop Bernie or Trump for Clinton.

Well they don't really have a choice. They have to gather the vote of they lose for sure.
The only wild card is Bloomberg, but his faith could be defined tomorrow.