Honestly, once you get to a certain level, everyone is working their asses off and have tons of will power, the extent of a person's natural talent is what ends up setting those that do well from those that are great apart. But that doesn't necessarily mean that the person who is the champion is necessarily the most talented, but anyone competing at that level, that has an honest shot at being champion, is most likely someone that showed natural talent from the start. And I'm probably referring more to sports here. When I say 'champion' I mean in a competition regarded as the pinnacle of achievement for whatever sport.
I've competed at the national level for a few things, but never could make it past, despite great effort and will power, at least in my mind, being pretty mediocre compared to the other competitors. Maybe I'm just saying all this natural talent stuff from a place of sour grapes? I don't know. It seemed like no matter how much effort I put in, there was someone who just had that extra oomph bestowed on them by nature that could put in half the effort I did, yet excelled way beyond me. By the time I'd master this one technique, they had already mastered 5-7 techniques.
That isn't to say if you have a dream you shouldn't keep pushing to achieve that dream. Even if the odds are against you, if you really believe in devoting your life to whatever it is, you should pursue it. I just think the chances of your success are a bit slim. But I'm an NF, so I don't much believe we should be governed by hard probabilistic distributions alone, life is about doing the things that give our lives value and we find pleasurable. This is really something I've had to come to peace with as I've realized I won't ever be the best (or close to it) at anything.