Roe no mo?

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

Everyone is crying foul about a leak but I have a suspicion it was the republicans themselves who allowed this leak.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Everyone is crying foul about a leak but I have a suspicion it was the republicans themselves who allowed this leak.

I doubt that because with this they lost a vital element of surprise. Since conclusion should have come out once the procedure is done.
While this way the left has the option on rising outrage before the process is over and therefore it is perhaps prevented or milled down.


However from what I understand the leak is showing certain broken promises on the topic and therefore the leak happened. This is why there is investigation into it and the feeling is that something dirty was going on behind the scenes. This is textbook example of culture war.

 

[Totenkindly]

There was a scene in some viking-ish series based on this. I'm trying to remember which one. Last Kingdom maybe? I didn't realize it was from the Bible.

(The takeaway - strictly on the abortion aspect - seems to be that it's okay if the father isn't the woman's husband, and it's even actively encouraged where that's the case).

The issue thus is the hypocrisy. Apparently it's abortion now even if a woman is raped or going to die from the pregnancy, and yet their own texts promoted abortion as simply a matter of male property.

You can see the difference in terms of who is expected to reap the benefits.

Everyone is crying foul about a leak but I have a suspicion it was the republicans themselves who allowedthis leak.

I'm making no assumptions. You're right in that both parties have Reasons.

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

I doubt that because with this they lost a vital element of surprise. Since conclusion should have come out once the procedure is done.
While this way the left has the option on rising outrage before the process is over and therefore it is perhaps prevented or milled down.


However from what I understand the leak is showing certain broken promises on the topic and therefore the leak happened. This is why there is investigation into it and the feeling is that something dirty was going on behind the scenes. This is textbook example of culture war.

I dunno. They may have taken a chance in losing the surprise and giving the dems something to fire up the dem base, but you can be sure the gop and tradcon voters are getting just as energized by this news. Expect a lot of referendums on the issue at the state level in the upcoming election. this is just the beginning. Also maybe they thought an early leak might take the punch out of news that otherwise might have come mid to late summer. These people have been playing the long game with their assault on abortion. Decades. This leak would be a minor setback for them at most. This does mean higher dem voter turnout in 2022, but will likely also mean greater GOP turnout.

 

[Virtual ghost]

I dunno. They may have taken a chance in losing the surprise and giving the dems something to fire up the dem base, but you can be sure the gop and tradcon voters are getting just as energized by this news. Expect a lot of referendums on the issue at the state level in the upcoming election. this is just the beginning. Also maybe they thought an early leak might take the punch out of news that otherwise might have come mid to late summer. These people have been playing the long game with their assault on abortion. Decades. This leak would be a minor setback for them at most. This does mean higher dem voter turnout in 2022, but will likely also mean greater GOP turnout.

I am unsure about greater GOP turnout, people that are turned on by stuff like this mostly vote for them on regular basis anyway. While the change in turnout should evidently be bigger on the democratic side. Especially since issues like this attract the half of the country that general doesn't vote.

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

I am unsure about greater GOP turnout, people that are turned on by stuff like this mostly vote for them on regular basis anyway. While the change in turnout should evidently be bigger on the democratic side. Especially since issues like this attract the half of the country that general doesn't vote.

yes you are correct, but it certainly serves a purpose in preventing future complacency among over-confident GOP voters. they almost always have higher turnout than dems, but they also know they will be facing higher dem turnout in the upcoming midterm and presidential elections.

 

[DiscoBiscuit]

The leak doesn't even seem tactically smart from a political perspective. There are gonna be about 300 news cycles between today and election day, and I doubt whether this leak will turn into electorally significant turnout increases. The only way the leak makes any sense is if its a ploy to shift justice's votes on the matter. But even this doesn't work because it may be just as likely to harden resolve of justices already decided as it is to motivate anyone to change their vote. The only net positive for the Democrats on the matter is earlier cycle fundraising to made off it.

 

[Virtual ghost]

yes you are correct, but it certainly serves a purpose in preventing future complacency among over-confident GOP voters. they almost always have higher turnout than dems, but they also know they will be facing higher dem turnout in the upcoming midterm and presidential elections.

That was kinda my point, they already have support and their people are voting on regular basis. While this will wake up the democrats. Plus this is big enough that it might even grab into that pool of people that doesn't vote. Especially since now this will be on the states to sort out. Therefore if only 10% of that half is triggered by this that is quite large shift. What In US style system is enough to cause results that border landslides. In the case I were a Republican I just wouldn't toy with this. Because all data suggests that 2022 is evident red wave and now all of that is brought under question. We will see polls in about 10 days, then the effect of all this should be more visible regardless of what it is.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

That was kinda my point, they already have support and their people are voting on regular basis. While this will wake up the democrats. Plus this is big enough that it might even grab into that pool of people that doesn't vote. Especially since now this will be on the states to sort out. Therefore if only 10% of that half is triggered by this that is quite large shift. What In US style system is enough to cause results that border landslides. In the case I were a Republican I just wouldn't toy with this. Because all data suggests that 2022 is evident red wave and now all of that is brought under question. We will see polls in about 10 days, then the effect of all this should be more visible regardless of what it is.

You may be right.

I am rather surprised at some of my relatives who are coming out as being pro-choice at the moment.

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

That was kinda my point, they already have support and their people are voting on regular basis. While this will wake up the democrats. Plus this is big enough that it might even grab into that pool of people that doesn't vote. Especially since now this will be on the states to sort out. Therefore if only 10% of that half is triggered by this that is quite large shift. What In US style system is enough to cause results that border landslides. In the case I were a Republican I just wouldn't toy with this. Because all data suggests that 2022 is evident red wave and now all of that is brought under question. We will see polls in about 10 days, then the effect of all this should be more visible regardless of what it is.

yeah i don't know

 

[ceecee]

U.S. Supreme Court set to overturn Roe v. Wade abortion rights decision, Politico reports

The U.S. Supreme Court looks set to vote to overturn the Roe v. Wade decision that legalized abortion nationwide, according to a leaked initial draft majority opinion published by Politico on Monday.

www.reuters.com

For the first time that I can recall, a SCOTUS ruling has been leaked before being finalized and released. And it’s perhaps one of the most monumental rulings in many of our lifetimes…

Court has had leaks since 1852 at least. And I'm pretty sure it was a conservative clerk that leaked it.

Abortion opinion leak unprecedented but not a Supreme Court first

Experts said the leak of a draft opinion that would overturn Roe v. Wade is likely to lead to "more distrust" on the high court.

www.nbcnews.com

Personally I hope Clarence Thomas holds on to invalidate his own marriage (repeal of Loving v. Virginia which is absolutely going to happen in addition to Griswold v. Connecticut, Obergefell v. Hodges, Lawrence v. Texas...) GOP is a Cristo- fascist party with a business wing, I don't know how much more clear thar could be at the moment.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Court has had leaks since 1852 at least. And I'm pretty sure it was a conservative clerk that leaked it.

Abortion opinion leak unprecedented but not a Supreme Court first

Experts said the leak of a draft opinion that would overturn Roe v. Wade is likely to lead to "more distrust" on the high court.

www.nbcnews.com

Personally I hope Clarence Thomas holds on to invalidate his own marriage (repeal of Loving v. Virginia which is absolutely going to happen in addition to Griswold v. Connecticut, Obergefell v. Hodges, Lawrence v. Texas...) GOP is a Cristo- fascist party with a business wing, I don't know how much more clear thar could be at the moment.

Yeah, Loving vs. Virginia is probably considered part of the "civil rights shadow constitution."

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

I generally support free speech in an unrestricted sense because only in such a climate will people come out with their actual views. I think more damage is done by conservatives pretending to moderate their views in order to avoid being banned.

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

I generally support free speech in an unrestricted sense because only in such a climate will people come out with their actual views. I think more damage is done by conservatives pretending to moderate their views in order to avoid being banned.

it's funny to watch how they increasingly refine their dog whistle game to adapt to PC language and culture. Even their bigotry has evolved with the times.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

it's funny to watch how they increasingly refine their dog whistle game to adapt to PC language and culture. Even their bigotry has evolved with the times.

I think it's obvious that conservative opinions aren't actually that popular ( which seems to keep them up at night). A GOP president hasn't ascended to the White House with the popular vote since 1992. (Edit: since 1988)

This explains why they embrace authoritarianism because they know their ideas will actually be rejected in a "free market" of ideas. But the "new right" doesn't seem fundamentally different in character from that of the diehards of the aughts.

What has changed is that we've seen more ideas of the conservative project implemented and the fruits of their "success" which has turned at least one entire generation away from the GOP in droves. So the only way that they can hold on to their project without having to actually revise their ideas with the times is to lean even harder into the authoritarianism and spend less time trying to cloak it.

 

[Coriolis]

You may be right.

I am rather surprised at some of my relatives who are coming out as being pro-choice at the moment.

That is a bit reassuring. It should be noted that "pro-choice" is not the same as "pro-abortion". Many people who support access to abortion view it as a last resort, much like amputating a limb. They just don't see it as a decision for the government to make, at any level.

 

[Virtual ghost]

You may be right.

I am rather surprised at some of my relatives who are coming out as being pro-choice at the moment.

Supposedly about 75% of US is for some kind of abortion. Especially since not all abortion is out of convenience, especially those that are related to health or rape.
I mean the logic is that if abortion will be legal only in blue states then there are very good odds that there will be more blue states (since the nudge will turn swing states at least into light blue states). What evidently has large implications on the long run. Especially if abortion laws have to be maintained/defended over and over again . What makes the shift kinda permanent. I mean if the miscarriage can give you 10 years in prison you will vote blue. This isn't exactly a rocket science.


As I said we will see but this is perhaps evident strategic error on the side of right. Biden got something like 80 million votes and Trump 70+ million in 2020 (if my memory serves me). But the country has 330 million people. Therefor if we presume 1/4 are minors that in the end of math still leaves about 100 million out there. While those 25% that wants a ban are basically those 70 million that voted for Trump. Therefore if just 10% of that 100 million becomes active blue voter that is huge because the gap will become too wide to cover.


As I said if I were a republican I wouldn't touch this since this has serious avalanche potential. Especially in the country where stuff are decided by 2-3 points on regular basis. This is probably why GOP is nervous about the leak. Since they got caught before a victory dance and they can't deny that they didn't want this. Plus there is no real undo here. What openly puts them at risk of this electoral avalanche for years to come. We will see the polls and outcomes in the future but this evidently has a potential for fundamental shifts. Since women will evidently want to skip prison time over stuff like this. This is no longer just bla bla bla politics.

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

That is a bit reassuring. It should be noted that "pro-choice" is not the same as "pro-abortion". Many people who support access to abortion view it as a last resort, much like amputating a limb. They just don't see it as a decision for the government to make, at any level.

problem with republicans is they want to squash all resorts and avenues. No abortion? OK, so I assume you're in support of education on STD and pregnancy risks? Ohhh, against those as well? So how exactly do you plan to limit unwanted pregnancies?

Ignoring problems is a pretty failsafe method of addressing them and has never led to new, more complex problems. Insert quote by Calvin Coolidge here..

Welp, ok, I am sure abstinence only education will work magnificiently in limiting said unwanted pregnancies and reducing the burden on the social safety net they see as such a drag to their free markets and business models.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

That is a bit reassuring. It should be noted that "pro-choice" is not the same as "pro-abortion". Many people who support access to abortion view it as a last resort, much like amputating a limb. They just don't see it as a decision for the government to make, at any level.

Abortion isn't something at the top of my mind usually but if I stop and think about it for 30 seconds, it's messed up that if the pro-life people had their way, a rape victim would have to carry the baby to term.

I also think conservatives, if they could, would absolutely make an abortion ban a federal law. The stuff about local control is largely a smoke screen; it's just another one of those rules that Republicans make up and then abandon just as easily when it isn't convenient for their agenda.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Abortion isn't something at the top of my mind usually but if I stop and think about it for 30 seconds, it's messed up that if the pro-life people had their way, a rape victim would have to carry the baby to term.

Not only that. They would have to rise them and watch them in the eyes every day.