Trump vs. Biden

[Jonny]

Again, I'm comparing the 2016 FiveThirtyEight model with the 2020 model; this time, as of October 12th. As shown below, if actual results differ by the same amount and in the same direction as they did in 2012, Biden would only pick up 2 states, Florida and Arizona. It would be enough to get him just over the 270 EV threshold. However, the results in Florida, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan would all be within 1%.

The moral of the story, if things change as much in the final few weeks as they did last cycle, we're in for a very close election night. That said, there are a few reasons why a person might expect that not to happen:

1. State polling is much more robust this cycle, and many pollsters aimed to correct mistakes from the 2016 election.
2. There are fewer undecided voters this time around, so fewer folks who might break toward Trump and diminish Biden's margin.
3. Biden has positive net favorability (i.e. he is actually liked by the electorate), in particular in the swing states that matter.
4. There is much less volatility in the polls/models this cycle.

 

[Totenkindly]

That said, there are a few reasons why a person might expect that not to happen:

1. State polling is much more robust this cycle, and many pollsters aimed to correct mistakes from the 2016 election.
2. There are fewer undecided voters this time around, so fewer folks who might break toward Trump and diminish Biden's margin.
3. Biden has positive net favorability (i.e. he is actually liked by the electorate), in particular in the swing states that matter.
4. There is much less volatility in the polls/models this cycle.

Yes. While I'm not allowing myself to get emotionally invested at this stage, I'm rationally seeing some differences between now and then. (Even though people still need to vote the hell out of this election -- since polls don't get anyone into office, only votes do. I'm very happy for people to run scared through November because it will get them to vote!)

• Hillary was disliked almost as much as Trump was.
• Trump was an "unknown" while Hillary was a "known" -- so independents voted on, "Well, maybe he will pull through or rise to the occasion." This is no longer the case, we know exactly what he did or did not do in office. it's one reason why he's feeling stymied, he can no longer run as the outsider who just criticizes government as his "argument" because he's the insider and instead has to run on his record, which he, well, has nothing but chaos and stoking conflict.
• A huge pool of undecideds existed back then, who could swing to one of the candidates. This is no longer the case, there are less undecided.

And everything you said.

I mean, he really just squeaked into office in 2016 through a "perfect storm" of circumstances, honestly. Four states, where the margins were pretty slim.

I think 538 is coming in lower with Biden's lead than some of the "national" polls as noted because they are weighting in more state polls -- since this is how our voting actually works, presidents are elected by winning states, not national contests. So there's less swing that will occur, even if Trump gets some crazy swing in the next few weeks.

it's really interesting to see the polls still inching away from Trump while his approval rating is still trying to claw its way upwards.

 

[Coriolis]

I think of it this way. I expect that everyone who didn't vote for Trump the last time, will not vote for him this time. I expect some people who did vote for him last time will not vote for him this time. In other words, to the extent that people change how they vote, that change will be in one direction, away from Trump and to his opponent. Last time there were more compelling third party candidates who siphoned off a few votes that might otherwise have gone to Clinton. I am not seeing that this time. Also, there seems to be a greater appreciation for the realities of how our electoral system is set up. Meaning I think (or at least I hope) we will see fewer protest votes, in favor of people being willing finally to vote for the lesser evil now that they have seen the harm done by the greater evil.

 

[Jonny]

I think of it this way. I expect that everyone who didn't vote for Trump the last time, will not vote for him this time. I expect some people who did vote for him last time will not vote for him this time. In other words, to the extent that people change how they vote, that change will be in one direction, away from Trump and to his opponent. Last time there were more compelling third party candidates who siphoned off a few votes that might otherwise have gone to Clinton. I am not seeing that this time. Also, there seems to be a greater appreciation for the realities of how our electoral system is set up. Meaning I think (or at least I hope) we will see fewer protest votes, in favor of people being willing finally to vote for the lesser evil now that they have seen the harm done by the greater evil.

I have the same take as you do. But there are members of this forum who think Trump has been incredibly successful, and that Biden is basically a demented puppet for the radical left. I suspect their perception is that Trump will retain almost all of his supporters and pick up people who "realize that Biden is unfit for the office" (their internal justification, not mine). It is really odd to me that we have these two different realities we're living in, but here we are.

 

[The Cat]

 

[The Cat]

so he's in orlando, throwing his germ laced buttons into the crowd...

 

[Jaguar]

 

[Mind Maverick]

"Need to focus on climate" "Listen to science" "California is bone dry"
This was 5 years ago...now look at us...America really can't afford another term of Trump...

 

[Mind Maverick]

so he's in orlando, throwing his germ laced buttons into the crowd...

I guess his big master plan is to kill off all his supporters.

 

[ceecee]

Bill Barr Buries Report That Exonerates Obama – Mother Jones

Bash’s team was focused not just on unmasking, but also on whether Obama-era officials provided information to reporters, according to people familiar with the probe, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive investigation. But the findings ultimately turned over to Barr fell short of what Trump and others might have hoped, and the attorney general’s office elected not to release them publicly, the people familiar with the matter said. The Washington Post was unable to review the full results of what Bash found.

Why does he think it would hurt Donald Trump’s reelection? I mean the MAGA fans have been screaming unhinged, for years, that Obama was wiretapping or some other claim that constantly ends up unproven.

It's not like Trump supporters aren't going to vote for him and from what I've observed for years, they aren't looking to grow, same as the GOP. So why suppress these findings?

 

[Virtual ghost]

Over the last two days high quality polls pushed NC to Biden +3.3 on 538.

 

[Totenkindly]

Georgia just crossed over to Biden on the 538 composite poll scores, which I think is the first time.

He's supposedly up by 0.2%.

 

[The Cat]

 

[Virtual ghost]

The start of new week.


Alaska: Trump +4.4
Arizona: Biden +3.9
Colorado: Biden +12.0
Florida: Biden +4.5
Georgia: Biden +0.9
Iowa: Biden +1.0
Maine 2nd: Biden +1.2
Michigan: Biden +8.0
Minnesota: Biden +9.2
Missouri: Trump +5.5
Montana: Trump +8.6
Nebraska 2nd: Biden +7.4
Nevada: Biden +6.8
New Hampshire: Biden +10.8
North Carolina: Biden +2.9
Ohio: Biden +0.7
Pennsylvania: Biden +7.3
South Carolina: Trump +5.3
Texas: Trump +1.5
Virginia: Biden +12.7
Wisconsin: Biden +7.2

Few days later

Alaska: Trump +4.6
Arizona: Biden +3.7
Colorado: Biden +12.8
Florida: Biden +4.1
Georgia: Biden +1.2
Iowa: Biden +0.6
Maine 2nd: Biden +1.2
Michigan: Biden +7.9
Minnesota: Biden +9.1
Missouri: Trump +6.2
Montana: Trump +8.6
Nebraska 2nd: Biden +7.3
Nevada: Biden +6.3
New Hampshire: Biden +11.5
North Carolina: Biden +3.2
Ohio: Biden +0.3
Pennsylvania: Biden +7.1
South Carolina: Trump +7.4
Texas: Trump +1.5
Virginia: Biden +12.9
Wisconsin: Biden +7.8


Nothing big, just a standard fluctuation.
Although if Georgia adds another blue point or two it could actually go to Biden. What would create quite large hole in Trump's path.
Plus it can be said that now New Hampshire is basically safe blue state. There is just no time and money for trying to melt that +11.5 lead, just to get it's 4 electoral votes.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Plus here is the version with winning odds from 538. First number is Trump, second is Biden.



Alaska: 78:22
Arizona: 33:66
Colorado: 6:96
Florida: 29:71
Georgia: 50:50
Iowa: 57:43
Maine 2nd: 52:48
Michigan: 9:91
Minnesota: 8:92
Missouri: 90:10
Montana: 90:10
Nebraska 2nd: 23:77
Nevada: 14:86
New Hampshire: 14:86
North Carolina: 34:66
Ohio: 49:51
Pennsylvania: 12:88
South Carolina: 89:11
Texas: 70:30
Virginia: 1:99
Wisconsin: 12:88


So if the numbers are even remotely correct Biden will win.

 

[ceecee]

Gonna put these right here because the GOP middle class tax cut clowns are back. All from fall 2018.

Trump’s fake middle-class tax cuts are dead - Vox

Trump repeats dubious pledge to introduce middle-class tax cut before midterms

Trump Is Not Going to Cut Middle-Class Taxes This Year, Despite What He Says - The New York Times

Trump Floats 10% Middle Class Tax Cut With Election Looming | Fortune

 

[Totenkindly]

Seth Rogen, J.J. Abrams, and Over 100 Hollywood Stars Protest NBC’s Trump Town Hall

They're simply suggesting NBC runs Trump's hour town hall before or after Biden (rather than catering to his bad behavior in refusing the debate and setting up another infantile ratings ploy) so that viewers have the opportunity to watch both.

Trump doing this is still pathetic, but at least it wouldn't buy into his attempt to recast what should have been a second debate into some staged popularity contest and would still allow viewers to see both town halls.

 

[Jaguar]

Seth Rogen, J.J. Abrams, and Over 100 Hollywood Stars Protest NBC’s Trump Town Hall

They're simply suggesting NBC runs Trump's hour town hall before or after Biden (rather than catering to his bad behavior in refusing the debate and setting up another infantile ratings ploy) so that viewers have the opportunity to watch both.

Trump doing this is still pathetic, but at least it wouldn't buy into his attempt to recast what should have been a second debate into some staged popularity contest and would still allow viewers to see both town halls.

The low number of undecided voters at this point in time leads one to ask, does it even matter the town halls are on TV at all? The person who stands to lose by doing this is Trump, not Biden. People could flip over to him for a few minutes ranting like a lunatic and say "Yep, Irma, he's a crazy fucker. Good thing we already mailed in our ballot for Biden."

 

[Totenkindly]

Christian Group Hits Trump: ‘The Days Of Using Our Faith For Your Benefit Are Over’

 

[Jaguar]

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