Trump vs. Biden

[The Cat]

 

[Red Memories]

I think Trump's reelection is very meaningful to his supports for the same reason why defeating him is important to those of us who oppose this president.

In many ways, 2016 seemed like a cathartic rebuke of experts who had for years been telling middle America that their ways were ignorant and wrong. For those who support this president, that rebuke was true and represented evidence that these so-called "experts" were in fact fallible and had been corrupted by their liberal bias. Climate scientists, academics, the media, the pollsters...all of them were guilty of sacrificing their integrity for the sake of appeasing the woke mob at worst, or hopelessly blinded at best.

Speaking as someone who doesn't support the president, my characterization of 2016 was not as a rebuke of experts, but rather as a perfect storm of circumstances. Hillary Clinton was terribly unpopular. Donald Trump was an unknown politically, but "well known" as a successful businessman and television personality. The 2016 race, as evidenced by the polls, was extremely volatile with many undecided voters. The media narrative, perhaps sparked by the Comey letter in the final week of the campaign, swung against Clinton in favor of Trump at just the right time. Undecided voters broke for Trump in the voting booth by large margins, and he won the electoral college via thin margins in three rust-belt states while losing the popular vote.

In 2020, these two understandings will be pitted against each other, and the results will possibly redefine these perceptions and the last four years. If Trump wins (especially if he wins despite polls continuing to overwhelmingly favor Biden), Trump supporters will be vindicated: 2016 wasn't just a fluke; their mistrust of experts is warranted; and the woke liberal crazies will be shown to be completely out of sync with reality, as was always expected.

If Trump loses (especially if results come fairly close to what the polls appear to be suggesting), Trump will go down as a one-term, failed president. He will leave the country worse off than when he entered office. His victory in 2016 will be recharacterized. Liberals will feel vindicated: 2016 was just a fluke, or a perfect storm of unlikely events; the mistrust of experts is misplaced and dangerous; and the ignorant Trumpsters will be shown to be completely out of sync with reality, as was expected.

The implications of this election go beyond policy. They extend to our very interpretation of reality, and our sense of self. The thing is, there is probably at least a grain of truth to both sides of this, though I suspect reality is much more in line with the second interpretation.

But, in all honestly, I have yet to hear a reasoned hypothesis for the Trump supporter narrative. Most people who think Trump will win tend to cite 2016 as their principal evidence. Barring some October surprise (which is still possible), this interpretation would have to mean that the polls are wrong yet again, and more importantly, that pollsters with a vested interest in correctly calling races haven't managed to learn how to correct for any mistakes that may have occurred in 2016. Again, this is in-line with the mistrust of experts. But, it is also quite pessimistic in the ability of humanity to systematically analyze and assess uncertain events and offer up useful predictions.


This is the contrast:

Can't I believe that both the SJW woke crowd and the trumpsters are both out of place and out of sync with reality?

 

[ceecee]

I'm going to leave this right here....

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

did we get stuck in 2017?

 

[Virtual ghost]

3 A+ polls in Pennsylvania. Biden +8, +11, +12


They should all grasp the effects of the debate and to some degree positive test.
While without Pennsylvania there is simply no realistic red path and therefore the polls need to be far more wrong than they were the last time in order to have a "team red" victory. What just isn't really realistic, especially since Florida, Arizona and NC also seem to be getting more blue.

 

[Jaguar]

This is the contrast:

We all choose our preferred tea leaves to read, but I do think that betting odds (folks with skin in the game) are less likely to have the patina of wish casting that so much of polling seems to wear. Their only job is to make money.

This is utter nonsense. Human success is founded on learning about the world through empirical observation and using that knowledge to predict the future. It's how people hunted, fished, made fire.

RealClearPolitics - Betting Odds - 2020 U.S. President

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

I think I am most excited about the Veep debate. I always like seeing the contrast in personalities and styles. This one should be a lot more interesting than Kaine vs Pence, which felt like watching a Pastor on muscle relaxants go against a middle school principal on amphetamines

 

[The Cat]

 

[Stigmata]

Trump decides to end stimulus negotiations until after the election

Quid pro quo 2: Electric boogaloo

Because it worked out so well with Ukraine, why not try again?

Seriously, no one can be this dumb. You're slowly losing traction in your reelection campaign as each day passes, and just weeks before the election you decide to pull this stunt? How dumb can you be. Republican senators in tight reelection campaigns must be on suicide watch right now.

Still think he has learned his lesson after the impeachment trials, Susam Collins?

 

[Jaguar]

The market took a dump when they announced it.

 

[Stigmata]

The market took a dump when they announced it.

I just don't understand how anyone who is legitimately trying to win reelection could be so stupid? How does he breathe without choking on his own tongue? Like as if you believe you think you're such the strongman that you're gonna leverage stimulus against US citizens to bully them into voting for you...

I just....I can't. I'm on pins and needles to see how conservative news spins this.

 

[Jonny]

I just don't understand how anyone who is legitimately trying to win reelection could be so stupid? How does he breathe without choking on his own tongue? Like as if you believe you think you're such the strongman that you're gonna leverage stimulus against US citizens to bully them into voting for you...

I just....I can't. I'm on pins and needles to see how conservative news spins this.

Perhaps one of his supporters could opine. Truly I don't understand it myself, but I couldn't confidently speculate as to motive. I've heard people say he has terrible political instincts. I've heard others say he's high on COVID meds. Perhaps he thinks that instructing Republicans to focus exclusively on confirming his SCOTUS nominee will change the subject?

I would love a pro-Trump take on all of this, because at this point it just looks like he's shitting the bed.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Either way I think that this year's VP debate will be more important than VP debates usually are. Since there is a quite decent chance that VP will have to take over in some situations or at some point down the road. Since on the long run VPs are the ones that are the future. So in a way next debate is perhaps the most important one.

 

[ceecee]

I just don't understand how anyone who is legitimately trying to win reelection could be so stupid? How does he breathe without choking on his own tongue? Like as if you believe you think you're such the strongman that you're gonna leverage stimulus against US citizens to bully them into voting for you...

I just....I can't. I'm on pins and needles to see how conservative news spins this.

They'll say they don't care, they are fine and don't need it. I mean Joe Biden is winning but all he has to say is - Dems, in the interest of actually serving the American public, were willing to give Republicans an absolute gift a few days before the election with a new stimulus deal - one the fed chair says is desperately needed - and Trump killed it. I'm signing executive order whatever to get this done for the American people - Day fucking 1.

 

[Z Buck McFate]

Trump decides to end stimulus negotiations until after the election

Quid pro quo 2: Electric boogaloo

Because it worked out so well with Ukraine, why not try again?

Seriously, no one can be this dumb. You're slowly losing traction in your reelection campaign as each day passes, and just weeks before the election you decide to pull this stunt? How dumb can you be. Republican senators in tight reelection campaigns must be on suicide watch right now.

Still think he has learned his lesson after the impeachment trials, Susam Collins?

"I have instructed my representatives to stop negotiating until after the election when, immediately after I win, we will pass a major Stimulus Bill that focuses on hardworking Americans and Small Business," Trump wrote in a series of tweets Tuesday afternoon.
​

This looks a lot like the move he made a few weeks back trying to court the Black vote, when he made a bunch of promises about what he'd do if re-elected. As if it weren't available to do any of those things - or even get them started - until he was re-elected. (If I can remember specifics, I'll edit to add them). Anyway, I thought the same thing at the time. Like the people listening aren't going to wonder why he isn't already doing them because... ?

 

[ceecee]

"I have instructed my representatives to stop negotiating until after the election when, immediately after I win, we will pass a major Stimulus Bill that focuses on hardworking Americans and Small Business," Trump wrote in a series of tweets Tuesday afternoon.
​

This looks a lot like the move he made a few weeks back trying to court the Black vote, when he made a bunch of promises about what he'd do if re-elected. As if it weren't available to do any of those things - or even get them started - until he was re-elected. (If I can remember specifics, I'll edit to add them). Anyway, I thought the same thing at the time. Like the people listening aren't going to wonder why he isn't already doing them because... ?

Exactly. This should also be in any Dem talking points.

 

[Stigmata]

They'll say they don't care, they are fine and don't need it. I mean Joe Biden is winning but all he has to say is - Dems, in the interest of actually serving the American public, were willing to give Republicans an absolute gift a few days before the election with a new stimulus deal - one the fed chair says is desperately needed - and Trump killed it. I'm signing executive order whatever to get this done for the American people - Day fucking 1.

Exactly. This should also be in any Dem talking points.

The Republican party should thank their lucky stars that the Democratic party is so bad at messaging and guiding the narrative. Like, absolutely abysmal at it.

 

[The Cat]

 

[Z Buck McFate]

The Republican party should thank their lucky stars that the Democratic party is so bad at messaging and guiding the narrative. Like, absolutely abysmal at it.

The God's honest truth.

 

[ceecee]

The Republican party should thank their lucky stars that the Democratic party is so bad at messaging and guiding the narrative. Like, absolutely abysmal at it.

Imagine how much better things would be in the US if we had a sexy Canadian style prime minster, not some bag of skin filled with creamed corn failed reality TV host.