The Dangerous Case Of Donald Trump

[ceecee]

To put my cards openly on the table: I can only watch this kinds of "data" but I really can't say too much about how legit this kinds of stuff is. (since I am on the other side of the globe)

Although it is too be expected that the map will not be radically different than 2016.

I would look more at 2018 than 2016 but it's still up in the air, at least until the primaries.

 

[SearchingforPeace]

I sometimes watch this channel since it has plenty of polls and maps.

Any thoughts on this ? (because this is the actual "game board" of 2020)

To "game" these, here are some simple rules:

1. The off year election is informational, but rarely controlling. For example, no president Dole or Romney, even though the Republicans had huge gains in both 1994 and 2010.

2. If a state hasn't switched in a long time, if probably isn't likely to do so. Ex. Minnesota hasn't voted Republican since Nixon. It is often very close. Republicans try really hard to take it, but constantly fail. See also Arizona and Georgia for Democrats.

3. Local offices and lower federal offices are often local or personality driven. See Montana. Therefore, only marginally predictive. Louisiana has a Democratic governor and often has Democratic senators but it is not voting Democrat for president.

4. If Obama couldn't take a state, no 2020 Democrat will take the state.

5. If a state has gone to one party for 3 presidential elections, it will likely continue: Nev, Col, NH, and NM are no longer swing states, until they swing back at least once.

6. It is very important to campaign in one's own potential swing states more than going after some random prize: Az and GA are not yet ready to flip and Texas is a complete fantasy for the Dems. If Hillary had gone to Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania more than Arizona and Georgia, she might have won.

7. Personality matters, a lot. So does economy. Just because someone hates a candidate, it doesn't mean everyone else does. A lot of Republicans hated Obama, but he was a million times more likable than McCain or Mitt, even to Republicans. Hillary was loved by a very small group and hated by many, so she even lost to Trump.

 

[Tellenbach]

Just because someone hates a candidate, it doesn't mean everyone else does.

Bingo. I get the impression that Dems think that Trump is unlikeable to most of America because they hate him. That's just not the case if you watch any Trump rally. He has 90% support among all Republicans. He's as liked by Republicans as Obama was by Democrats.

This is also why I'm supporting Bernie in the primaries; he's a curmudgeon. He's liked by the far left and doesn't elicit much emotional response (positive or negative) from anyone else. He's not unlikeable, but he's not likeable either. He's the meh candidate.

 

[Virtual ghost]

White House ‘disappointed’ in UK decision on Huawei


It seems that even UK that is at the crossroad doesn't really follow USA strictly anymore. Even if pressure seems to be pretty open.

 

[ceecee]

White House ‘disappointed’ in UK decision on Huawei


It seems that even UK that is at the crossroad doesn't really follow USA strictly anymore. Even if pressure seems to be pretty open.

It's probably in the best interest of most countries to not follow the US strictly anymore.

 

[Virtual ghost]

It's probably in the best interest of most countries to not follow the US strictly anymore.

Well, from outside US is simply seen as sinking ship around which you shouldn't base too many of your plans. However that is opening one large amount of questions about what to do next, since this is fundamental remaking of the world order and that has consequences. What is going on are probably the biggest changes in the world order since WW2. So yeah, it isn't in their interest but what exactly is in their interest ? Some countries are in cultural shock, some are financial shock, some are exploiting the new power vacuum .... etc.

 

[ceecee]

Well, from outside US is simply seen as sinking ship around which you shouldn't base too many of your plans. However that is opening one large amount of questions about what to do next, since this is fundamental remaking of the world order and that has consequences. What is going on are probably the biggest changes in the world order since WW2. So yeah, it isn't in their interest but what exactly is in their interest ? Some countries are in cultural shock, some are financial shock, some are exploiting the new power vacuum .... etc.

It's seen by many on the inside in the same way. But I'm looking at what to do next - not continue with an obviously losing strategy. These answers are global, that's a certainty.

 

[Red Herring]

It's seen by many on the inside in the same way. But I'm looking at what to do next - not continue with an obviously losing strategy. These answers are global, that's a certainty.[/QUOTE]

GLOBALIST!!!

 

[Virtual ghost]

It's seen by many on the inside in the same way. But I'm looking at what to do next - not continue with an obviously losing strategy. These answers are global, that's a certainty.

True, but if it is a sinking ship what else you can do than evacuate ? (in reality sinking ships are "closed story")


On the other hand what Trump's presidency has shown is how hard can it be to get things where they were. It isn't that many other countries will allow that certain jobs will return to US. Plus the wage difference, infrastructure and education issues make sure they can't really return in many cases. While lowering wages will simply blow up the system from within, since too many already can't afford even the basics. American logic is that you can always make a fresh start but I am not sure that due to all circumstances this will work this time. Because there is no more transport related isolation while the debt is boiling over. Therefore solutions will probably have to be found in completely out of the box stuff.


This will be one hell of a ride however you turn it. The financial math is simply against the country.

 

[Z Buck McFate]

Donald Trump didn't know India-China share border, PM Narendra Modi was shocked: New book - India News

A kind of funny Twitter thread along this line by George Conway.

I have slightly mixed feelings about making fun of him for being stupid, easy target though he may be. While an ability to know and remember a great many details about others is relatively essential to be effectively diplomatic (for reasons like those listed in the quoted link), it's his searing unkindness, brazen juvenile bullying, and delusions of grandeur that I think makes him absolutely unfit to hold any public office (and/or undeserving of much respect in any capacity). If there's a joke about his stupidity that incorporates his meanness, then I'm onboard. But sometimes making fun of just how plain stupid he is (if it's not attached to how mean or harmful he is) comes across, to me, like juvenile bullying in the other direction.

(In other words, it might inadvertently also be making fun of stupid people who are otherwise kind).

#NFdisclaimers

 

[Doctor Cringelord]

A kind of funny Twitter thread along this line by George Conway.

I have slightly mixed feelings about making fun of him for being stupid, easy target though he may be. While an ability to know and remember a great many details about others is relatively essential to be effectively diplomatic (for reasons like those listed in the quoted link), it's his searing unkindness, brazen juvenile bullying, and delusions of grandeur that I think makes him absolutely unfit to hold any public office (and/or undeserving of much respect in any capacity). If there's a joke about his stupidity that incorporates his meanness, then I'm onboard. But sometimes making fun of just how plain stupid he is (if it's not attached to how mean or harmful he is) comes across, to me, like juvenile bullying in the other direction.

(In other words, it might inadvertently also be making fun of stupid people who are otherwise kind).

#NFdisclaimers

I don't expect presidents to know every little geographic tidbit of every single nation on this planet, but when you're dealing with two very prominent nuclear powers such as these, I think this should be common knowledge with world leaders, especially given the sometimes tense relations between those nations in the past.


Were this an occasional error from him, I'd give him a pass, yet he's repeatedly demonstrated an ignorance of what should be basic high school level geopolitical knowledge. He's a fucking doofus and I don't feel bad in the least for teasing him.

Had Obama or Clinton demonstrated the same frequency of ignorance about world geography, you can bet right wing shock jocks and republicans wouldn't be letting anyone forget it. I'm not saying that makes it OK to make fun of stupid people, but like you said, Trump is a bully who repeatedly makes fun of others. Let him eat what he's been dishing out for years.

He makes Bush look like an intellectual. Bush made his share of ignorant or incorrect statements, yet one thing I'll give him credit for, he at least made an attempt to learn and correct his mistakes, and he even had a self-deprecating sense of humor about his perceived stupidity.

 

[Red Herring]

A kind of funny Twitter thread along this line by George Conway.

I have slightly mixed feelings about making fun of him for being stupid, easy target though he may be. While an ability to know and remember a great many details about others is relatively essential to be effectively diplomatic (for reasons like those listed in the quoted link), it's his searing unkindness, brazen juvenile bullying, and delusions of grandeur that I think makes him absolutely unfit to hold any public office (and/or undeserving of much respect in any capacity). If there's a joke about his stupidity that incorporates his meanness, then I'm onboard. But sometimes making fun of just how plain stupid he is (if it's not attached to how mean or harmful he is) comes across, to me, like juvenile bullying in the other direction.

(In other words, it might inadvertently also be making fun of stupid people who are otherwise kind).

#NFdisclaimers

I don't think he is stupid. I think he is uncultured and uneducated even though he had every opportunity in the world afforded to him to educate himself. It's legitimate in my view to point that out as it speaks both against his qualification for a demanding high office and against his character (wilfull ignorance).

People often confuse and conflate intelligence with knowledge, but they are two very different things.

 

[Doctor Cringelord]

I don't think he is stupid. I think he is uncultured and uneducated even though he had every opportunity in the world afforded to him to educate himself. It's legitimate in my view to point that out as it speaks both against his qualification for a demanding high office and against his character (wilfull ignorance).

People often confuse and conflate intelligence with knowledge, but they are two very different things.

In my book, one who makes a conscious decision not to educate themselves and to improve their mind isn't as bad as a genuinely stupid person, they're far worse. Especially considering there's a lot of lower than average intelligence people who still try to make an effort to learn and improve their minds. If trump is intelligent, shame on him for wasting it. Though part of me thinks he consciously tries to act dumber than he lets on just to appeal more to some of his base.

there's also the fact he seems completely unapologetic about his own ignorance. That is unforgivable. The man doesn't understand how to be humble and admit when he's not the smartest guy in the room. Really great presidents like JQ Adams and Lincoln weren't great because they were highly intelligent, they were great because they exhibited some humility when wrong and didn't pretend to be experts on every topic. That is a sign of a true learner and one with a genuine appreciation for knowledge.

 

[Virtual ghost]

In my book, one who makes a conscious decision not to educate themselves and to improve their mind isn't as bad as a genuinely stupid person, they're far worse. Especially considering there's a lot of lower than average intelligence people who still try to make an effort to learn and improve their minds. If trump is intelligent, shame on him for wasting it. Though part of me thinks he consciously tries to act dumber than he lets on just to appeal more to some of his base.

there's also the fact he seems completely unapologetic about his own ignorance. That is unforgivable. The man doesn't understand how to be humble and admit when he's not the smartest guy in the room. Really great presidents like JQ Adams and Lincoln weren't great because they were highly intelligent, they were great because they exhibited some humility when wrong and didn't pretend to be experts on every topic. That is a sign of a true learner and one with a genuine appreciation for knowledge.

That part is evidently the case. The way he run circles around others in the 2016 primaries show that he isn't nearly as stupid as some claim. Arrogance and lack of care for info are surely closer to the truth.

 

[Z Buck McFate]

I don't expect presidents to know every little geographic tidbit of every single nation on this planet, but when you're dealing with two very prominent nuclear powers such as these, I think this should be common knowledge with world leaders, especially given the sometimes tense relations between those nations in the past.

I'd file this under merited reasons to make fun of him though, maybe under the 'delusions of grandeur' category. People who aren't remotely qualified for a job that they feel entitled to bring it on themselves.

I think I felt compelled to add the disclaimer because I linked George Conway's thread, and I feel like George Conway maybe goes a tiny bit too far in pointing out what a moron Trump is. (I feel like Trump specifically 100% deserves it, but there's a fine line between making fun of Trump and just plain making fun of stupid).

I don't think he is stupid. I think he is uncultured and uneducated even though he had every opportunity in the world afforded to him to educate himself. It's legitimate in my view to point that out as it speaks both against his qualification for a demanding high office and against his character (wilfull ignorance).

People often confuse and conflate intelligence with knowledge, but they are two very different things.

I don't know, I'm inclined to think he has neither. It's like he's just a puppet to some big throbbing mass of impulses in his unconscious, and I'm reluctant to assign "intelligence" to whatever cleverness lurks in that big throbbing mass. Though this could just be based on mostly seeing behavior in advanced age (maybe he had more guile when he was younger), he seems to thrive on some lucky cocktail of inflated sense of entitlement and forcefulness of personality.

 

[Virtual ghost]

White House ‘disappointed’ in UK decision on Huawei

It seems that even UK that is at the crossroad doesn't really follow USA strictly anymore. Even if pressure seems to be pretty open.

Continuation/Expansion.

EU rules out Huawei ban — but maps out strict rules on 5G


In other words EU is also making similar conclusions and against US wishes. China is EUs biggest trading partner and from that point of view there is no need to rock the boat too hard. Not to mention that many countries in Europe are siding closer to China than even EU wants.




As I said.

This is remaking of the world order however you turn it. Plus it is in a way death of Reganism in geopolitical sense.

 

[Nicodemus]

That part is evidently the case. The way he run circles around others in the 2016 primaries show that he isn't nearly as stupid as some claim.

I think the image is slightly off: He did not run circles around them so much as he ran over them. He can smell their weaknesses and capitalize on them while projecting power by sheer force of ego. By no coincidence, that approach to dealing with competition is pretty much the essence of psychopathy.

I don't know, I'm inclined to think he has neither. It's like he's just a puppet to some big throbbing mass of impulses in his unconscious, and I'm reluctant to assign "intelligence" to whatever cleverness lurks in that big throbbing mass. Though this could just be based on mostly seeing behavior in advanced age (maybe he had more guile when he was younger), he seems to thrive on some lucky cocktail of inflated sense of entitlement and forcefulness of personality.

Bingo.

In terms of IQ, he is probably in the range of 100. His advantage over others really stems from two soruces: money (plus connections) and mental disorders.

 

[Virtual ghost]

I think the image is slightly off: He did not run circles around them so much as he ran over them. He can smell their weaknesses and capitalize on them while projecting power by sheer force of ego. By no coincidence, that approach to dealing with competition is pretty much the essence of psychopathy.

Yes, but trolling them and making them look as fools is more like "running circles around them" in my book. Although in political sense he run them over with doing that.

 

[Z Buck McFate]

Yes, but trolling them and making them look as fools [b/]is more like "running circles around them" in my book. Although in political sense he run them over with doing that.

Do you think he effectively makes them look foolish though? I mean, to anyone with half a brain? It feels mean to say this (not about him, about his base), but I don't know how else to say it. He intimidates, and I mean this literally without exaggeration, like an emotionally stunted 12 year old. While it's possible there's more upstairs than meets the eye and this is actually some tactic to appeal to an emotionally stunted base, I haven't seen any indication of it bleed through. There doesn't seem to be any theory of mind happening in his head at all, which is necessary to be strategically manipulative. It's just pure dull steamroller + entitlement.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Do you think he effectively makes them look foolish though? I mean, to anyone with half a brain? It feels mean to say this (not about him, about his base), but I don't know how else to say it. He intimidates, and I mean this literally without exaggeration, like an emotionally stunted 12 year old. While it's possible there's more upstairs than meets the eye and this is actually some tactic to appeal to an emotionally stunted base, I haven't seen any indication of it bleed through. There doesn't seem to be any theory of mind happening in his head at all, which is necessary to be strategically manipulative. It's just pure dull steamroller + entitlement.

I am/was talking about 2016 primaries and you still have plenty of those examples on youtube.
However today the picture is somewhat different, the playful part isn't present to such degree as in 2016.