Cognitive Biases, Positive Black Swan Events and Startups

[AgentF]

i can't believe i eschewed twitter for the past few weeks in favor of this forum.



had i not resumed the chirp, i might've missed out on today's kickass conversation on Cognitive Biases, Positive Black Swan Events and Startups.

so, naturally, i want to discuss that here. alas, there doesn't appear to be a large technophile population on the forum. still, it's an interesting topic and raises fun questions around entrepreneur's creating timing, being fooled by randomness, confirmation bias, and so on.

 

[JAVO]

In order to be best positioned for a Black Swan Event (positive or negative), I think having an agile approach to product and service development is important because it allows for faster reaction to change, frequent customer feedback, and fast elimination of things which aren't working. Rather than perfecting the product (or service), just get it out there in its essential form to find out if it might be worth perfecting first.

As an NP, I find an agile approach to be natural. It's like someone finally created a project management approach for Ps instead of one tailored for Js.

Edit: It's good to be aware of the many ways we fool ourselves, but that still doesn't stop us from doing so. (or maybe ) Many things are filtered out nonconsciously (as opposed to the unconscious, which according to Freud is apparently always thinking about sex anyway), and our current paradigm of reality is itself limiting information availability like some type of propaganda machine.

 

[INTP]

Cba to read the whole link, but this black swan thing is quite interesting. Be glad you got teh Ne, so you can be more easier aware of black swans. Touch screen and android has ALOT of potential. I actually had one pretty sweet idea few days ago having to do with guitar and phone, phone basically replacing computer on some stuff and being better than computer doing so. Im sure fender or other brands would be very interested about the app idea i got and could basically give it free with some of their products, adding slightly more to average prices. At least if i would own fender or some firm like that i would get that app developed asap and it would be a small scale revolution

 

[Guest]

very relevant to my current situation.

the duplication of a black swan event may be a pipe dream for many, but someone's gotta hit it big.