yeghor
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- Joined
- Dec 21, 2013
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So there's this loosely-defined 4th Turning Theory that suggests US goes thru death & rebirth cycle every 80 to 100 years, i.e. every 4 generations. The cycle goes on like this:
The circumstances specific to each phase in the full cycle allows certain traits and personalities to come to prominence and take the lead as shown below. It doesn't overlap with the above cycle illustration and should be read like as follows:
-Crisis Phase (T+0 to T+20 years): Prophets get old. Nomads, because they've had to learn to rely on themselves rather than their negligent parents and decaying institutions, come to prominance and supported by Heroes navigate and resolve the crisis phase.
-New-found Order Phase (T+20 to T+40 years): Nomads establish common ground and order but are old now. Heroes come to prominence and take over and maintain the new-found order after the crisis, collectivism around common values prevails. They are overprotective and raise compliant but free-spirited Artist children.
-Awakening Phase (T+40 to T+60 years): Heroes get old. Artists come to prominence and are more tolerant towards individualism and non-conformance, raise highly individualistic Prophet children with high self esteem.
-Unraveling Phase (T+60 to T+80 years) : Artists get old. Different types of Prophets come to prominence and try to push and change/manipulate the established order to suit their and their followers' respective needs, resulting in polarization of the society into incompatible factions. Institutional pillars upholding the order become polarized and politicized as well, eroding their effectiveness. Narcissism peaks, common ground is lost, society falls apart, conflicts come to a boiling point. Because they are highly focused on their own needs and agendas, they leave their children to fend for themselves, resulting in their children becoming self-reliant Nomads lacking in parental guidance and institutional protection.
The author suggests that US is now in the Unraveling phase, which will move on to a Crisis phase by 2030s.
The circumstances specific to each phase in the full cycle allows certain traits and personalities to come to prominence and take the lead as shown below. It doesn't overlap with the above cycle illustration and should be read like as follows:
-Crisis Phase (T+0 to T+20 years): Prophets get old. Nomads, because they've had to learn to rely on themselves rather than their negligent parents and decaying institutions, come to prominance and supported by Heroes navigate and resolve the crisis phase.
-New-found Order Phase (T+20 to T+40 years): Nomads establish common ground and order but are old now. Heroes come to prominence and take over and maintain the new-found order after the crisis, collectivism around common values prevails. They are overprotective and raise compliant but free-spirited Artist children.
-Awakening Phase (T+40 to T+60 years): Heroes get old. Artists come to prominence and are more tolerant towards individualism and non-conformance, raise highly individualistic Prophet children with high self esteem.
-Unraveling Phase (T+60 to T+80 years) : Artists get old. Different types of Prophets come to prominence and try to push and change/manipulate the established order to suit their and their followers' respective needs, resulting in polarization of the society into incompatible factions. Institutional pillars upholding the order become polarized and politicized as well, eroding their effectiveness. Narcissism peaks, common ground is lost, society falls apart, conflicts come to a boiling point. Because they are highly focused on their own needs and agendas, they leave their children to fend for themselves, resulting in their children becoming self-reliant Nomads lacking in parental guidance and institutional protection.
The author suggests that US is now in the Unraveling phase, which will move on to a Crisis phase by 2030s.
