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Global Turmoil

Virtual ghost

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I had threads like this one here before and I think we need this here, especially since I am getting impression that we are missing the elephant in the room. However if I would bring this up in other threads I would just be nuking the threads. So this should just be a general thread for the topic of global expansion of totalitarianism, wars, mass human right abuses and similar topics.



To be honest I find the whole debate in the primaries and generally in the west to be short sighted since in my book they don't really grasp what is really going on in various parts. In my book global situation is far worse for the English speaking world than you can conclude from the general discourse. Here are some examples that are no more than a few weeks old. This is plenty to share so I will add short comments next to the links.




US removes Turkey from F-35 program after S-400 fiasco
This is really big one since the Turkey passed the line openly despite warnings, plus since they are getting so close to the Russians it is obvious that they have given them some NATO data. Also they are building oil pipelines in order to shift towards Russian energy.


Turkey Marks Failed Coup’s Third Anniversary Across Balkans
Cheap propaganda but it will do what it was meant to do.





Hungary defends decision to allow transit of Russian military shipment
Another nato country doing Russia favors. Not to mention they are hiding escaped pro Russian Macedonian ex PM.


Hungary and Poland Tighten Grip on ‘National Narratives’
Also there is pretty clear move towards big government.


Just 37 percent of Germans see UK as trustworthy partner, poll says
What is even more brutal is that towards this only 19% have such opinion about USA.





Kosovo Politicians Voice Sympathy After ‘War Crimes Suspect’ PM Resigns
Kosovo’s ambassador to Washington, Vlora Citaku, expressed outrage that Haradinaj would be questioned as a suspect.

This was a shock indeed for the country and something totally unexpected, however now 20 years later someone got the idea and this going through. This will have consequences and since the Kosovo's main telecom is in serious problems it should be monitored what will Russia and China do. If they get the telecom from the government that marks clear shifts.


Albania MPs Propose Ban on Studying WWII Communist Crimes
Meanwhile in mainland Albania ....





Pranked North Macedonia PM Defends His Gullibility
This is the guy that should carry Macedonia through thorns and bushes to EU but Russians made him look like an idiot.


Dodik Urges Bosnian Serbs to Block Croatia Lawsuit
This is pure theater of absurd. The head of Bosnian Serbs is saving the Croatia from international lawsuits. However the catch is simple: China is building the mentioned bridge and it obviously told him to block "this circus".


Alleged Bulgaria Tax Data Hacker Says He’ll Never Be Caught
Maybe he is showing off but maybe he is indeed Russian.


Croatia to Transform Tito’s Iconic Yacht into Museum
This looks like a nice story about history but the fact is that Yugo-nostalgia is all over the country. Plus this is being done by Yugo-nostalgic political forces. Soon the county may even elect a person that starts rallies with "Hello Comrades" and even did some subtle attacks on the Euro on TV. While the two main daughters of the communist party have pushed third parties to the edge of relevance. However that is also hardly a tragedy, since at this point those are mostly just opportunists and populists.

Or how that looks in numbers
Poll


Macron Dampens Serbia’s Hopes of Rapid EU Membership
What opens the question why should Serbia that is Putinist style dictatorship make any changes to what they are doing. Since people at the top have to hunt their own ilk to boost democracy and transparency and now they have no reason to do anything. Especially since Russia and China are providing plenty of benefits.

Montenegro Supreme Court Accused of Undermining Judiciary
But let's be real, the same guy leads the show/country for decades and he started career in the past system. What else to expect?

UK’s Shrinking Role in Balkans Will Vanish Under Johnson
Logical consequence of everything that is going on.

Italy probes ties between Salvini's Lega party and Russia
Interesting but not shocking if we consider his threats to EU from business meeting in Russia.

Dodon's Ally Becomes Moldova’s New Anti-Graft Chief
Let's just say that the person's name is "Ruslan".

Ukraine's anti-corruption campaign targets Klitschko and Poroshenko
This is fishy to the core. Newly elected president that was a TV comedian is now going after the most anti-russian politicians in Ukraine.







Meanwhile on the other side of the globe:


China warns Hong Kong protesters of severe repercussions
I don't know how many of you are watching this drama but it seem that China is getting bored with autonomy of the Hong Kong and wants to fully assimilate it.


North Korea launches two 'projectiles' into the sea
They are launching continuously at this point and it seems they aren't going to stop. This is far from over as a story.


Cambodia buys more arms from China
Over the last few years China managed to completely remake dictatorship in Cambodia. It is indeed good place for a military base.





So it is more than obvious that the West has serious problem in the field about which not much is being said. Plus there is plenty of what I didn't even touch.
In other words it is obvious that Russia and China are on the offensive and the west has no real game going.
 

Julius_Van_Der_Beak

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So it is more than obvious that the West has serious problem in the field about which not much is being said. Plus there is plenty of what I didn't even touch.
In other words it is obvious that Russia and China are on the offensive and the west has no real game going.

America don't need game. We're the freedomest country ever. That's enough.

 

Virtual ghost

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America don't need game. We're the freedomest country ever. That's enough.



I agree, at the end of the day you can only laugh at this. For me to see how things are going I just have to go to the super market: here the big Coca-Cola costs something like 2$ and Russian owned counterpart that has the same quality and quality is something like 1.15$ (and these are pure prices without any sales or anything). Also I went to European owned furniture shop and most of the stuff there is "Made in China".


So I made my peace with this since it is becoming crystally clear how all of this is going to end (at least in my part of the world)
There are even days when I wonder would I be a villain if I simply accept or embrace things for what they are.
 

tinker683

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So it is more than obvious that the West has serious problem in the field about which not much is being said. Plus there is plenty of what I didn't even touch.
In other words it is obvious that Russia and China are on the offensive and the west has no real game going.

Sure we do! Our President has repeatedly told us that Russia that he's best buds with Putin and Kim Jong Un! He told me on Twitter and everything!

As a more serious response: Thank you for putting this thread together, it's very informative.
 

raskol

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In my book global situation is far worse for the English speaking world than you can conclude from the general discourse.
It's an impressive list of grievances, but I have a few criticisms to share. Greece and Turkey have always been basket cases in the Western alliance, suffering from either communist or sectarian insurgencies threatening either military's stronghold--not to mention fighting each other and still dividing Cyprus between them. Greece also betrayed NATO during the Yugoslav wars, when it assisted Russia and Serbia to maintain the ongoing genocide of Bosnians. The Clinton administration successfully blocked the flow of information at the time, and now we act as though it never happened.

Then again, the reason we can see this kind of nonsense go on in Europe--whether it is the tinfoil in Hungary, Poland, or Macedonia--is because it ultimately doesn't matter. The supply chain remains intact and the Visegrad group is acting jointly to counter Russian power projection in the Intermarium.

The core problem, however, is that America's cost to uphold its global trade imperium is becoming unsustainable, especially as global economic growth is plateauing while technologically advanced hardware requires increased funding. Not only is the U.S. military overseeing the safety of goods transported across the oceans and in airspace, but simultaneously every tracking device and GPS satellite is funded by the American taxpayer. The rest of the world consists of free-riders leaching off of the structure America built during the Cold War, and there will come a time when responsibilities are either shared or the trade imperium collapses.

Put differently, America needs to downsize its global presence so as not to collapse under its own weight, but I don't believe it is possible to present this approach in a debate format. By contrast, the democratic process--which is now nothing more than a populist free-for-all--is likely to present a path toward unsustainable spending in a future of zero growth, making the collapse inevitable.
 

Virtual ghost

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It's an impressive list of grievances, but I have a few criticisms to share. Greece and Turkey have always been basket cases in the Western alliance, suffering from either communist or sectarian insurgencies threatening either military's stronghold--not to mention fighting each other and still dividing Cyprus between them. Greece also betrayed NATO during the Yugoslav wars, when it assisted Russia and Serbia to maintain the ongoing genocide of Bosnians. The Clinton administration successfully blocked the flow of information at the time, and now we act as though it never happened.

True, but as you see Turkey is gone and Greece is selling out to China. Just as the rest of the Balkans.


Then again, the reason we can see this kind of nonsense go on in Europe--whether it is the tinfoil in Hungary, Poland, or Macedonia--is because it ultimately doesn't matter. The supply chain remains intact and the Visegrad group is acting jointly to counter Russian power projection in the Intermarium.


Yeah I see how they hold, they are passing Russian military shipment and giving exile to pro Russian politicians.


US angered by Hungary's decision to extradite arms dealers to Russia

Macedonian ex-PM escapes jail term, flees to Hungary

Gruevski was pure authoritarian and they gave him asylum. Even today his VMRO-DPMNE blocks and slows Macedonian path towards EU and NATO since he is pro-russian politician. While this scary government that is after him is led by the already mentioned pranked PM from the first post. Russians pranked him exactly since they are going after their man.


Russia's proposed TurkStream 2 pipeline sparks Bulgaria, EU energy worries

Chinese Seal Major Romanian Energy Acquisition




Not to mention that China established a new trading block that is heating up with all ex communist countries in ex Eastern block, do some research on that. Or who is building new nuclear power plants in the region.




If the wall is safe why Russians took over a number of big companies in my country or why we have Russian magazines at kiosks (which are also Russian at this point)
Etc. etc. I made endless post on the topic since I am from this part of the world and the point of my post is exactly that you no longer have a solid wall at the eastern border of NATO. It is time to update the map.



The core problem, however, is that America's cost to uphold its global trade imperium is becoming unsustainable, especially as global economic growth is plateauing while technologically advanced hardware requires increased funding. Not only is the U.S. military overseeing the safety of goods transported across the oceans and in airspace, but simultaneously every tracking device and GPS satellite is funded by the American taxpayer. The rest of the world consists of free-riders leaching off of the structure America built during the Cold War, and there will come a time when responsibilities are either shared or the trade imperium collapses.

Well, EU recently pushed it's own Galileo system as an alternative to GPS. Russians have their own system as well, as well as someone else perhaps.


Put differently, America needs to downsize its global presence so as not to collapse under its own weight, but I don't believe it is possible to present this approach in a debate format. By contrast, the democratic process--which is now nothing more than a populist free-for-all--is likely to present a path toward unsustainable spending in a future of zero growth, making the collapse inevitable.

Is this the only thing America knows as genuine problem solving ? Isolationism ?

If you do that US is toast for sure. Since you will collapse under you own debts, since you will have debts of a superpower without such powers and all the vacuum you leave Russia and China will very quickly fill. The problem isn't in American influence and it's size, the problem is the quality of that influence. Illegal wars, climate change denial, bad healthcare and toxic food just don't impress people. Your only hope is to fully embrace your allies and influences and try to make a plan how to dig yourself out of this with them. What will surely requite rethinking in both manufacture policy and paradigms as well as education. Since if you just trade with goods other made you are basically just a middle man that no one needs in the end.
 

Virtual ghost

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PM’s Dual Role as Speaker Draws Criticism in Bosnia

Because ... why not ? :doh:


Asian Workers Change Urban Face of Romania

This is also "interesting" concept, corrupt ex-communist country that is mostly ruled by ex or covered up communists is importing cheap workforce from communist country, so that they repair communist era infrastructure.


These trends are just going and going and there is no end in sight. The most bizarre element is that all of this is mostly going through globalization and international trade, without that there is no way Russia and China would be able to pile up so much influence, which they use as leverage or disruption in the end.
 

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PM’s Dual Role as Speaker Draws Criticism in Bosnia

Because ... why not ? :doh:


Asian Workers Change Urban Face of Romania

This is also "interesting" concept, corrupt ex-communist country that is mostly ruled by ex or covered up communists is importing cheap workforce from communist country, so that they repair communist era infrastructure.


These trends are just going and going and there is no end in sight. The most bizarre element is that all of this is mostly going through globalization and international trade, without that there is no way Russia and China would be able to pile up so much influence, which they use as leverage or disruption in the end.

free market good because america freedom so freedom benefit america
 

Julius_Van_Der_Beak

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I joke but this is really the kind of discord we have. I hear adults, some of them supposedly well-educated, express exactly these sentiments if in less moronic language all the time.

Oh, and the funniest thing is that these are the people thought of as the "sensible" hard-nosed pragmatists.
 

Virtual ghost

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I joke but this is really the kind of discord we have. I hear adults, some of them supposedly well-educated, express exactly these sentiments if in less moronic language all the time.

Oh, and the funniest thing is that these are the people thought of as the "sensible" hard-nosed pragmatists.


I am aware of the stereotype/joke. The problem is that basic premise was that Communism and similar ideologies are dead and now we can all lift all borders and we can all trade with each other however we want. So west privatized and divided it's economy into smaller systems that are generally independent from one another. However East used the opportunities for a rebound and now the biggest integrated systems in the world are undemocratic governments that are just sucking in everything they can find.


For example state owned company that is part of big government can have very easy time taking all the market. Private company in order to live needs profit, however public company can get temporary government support to such degree that they can lower the prices into nothing and instantly kill the competition. Therefore when all of that dies off you take over the whole market and then quickly refill all the money that government provided and technological complexity makes sure that some new competition can't emerge over night. Plus now you have the resources to repeat the cycle somewhere else. Also in the case you have enough tanks and nukes you can bend trading rules if someone asks some questions.



Actually when this goes through government it is easy to make more complex deals. Usually if private company is doing business they can only provide what is their core business, while with the government that owns business this can get more complex very easily. For example: if you start buying out software we will give you 25% discount on all food purchases, also we will convince xy country to open the market for your furniture and oil and if all that goes well we will reinvest money we got from the deal with them into your tourism industry. While the private company will probably struggle with this kind of trade since it just can't provide so many offers and combinations. Especially since government and business combo allows you to be both a business person and a lawmaker at the same time, what opens a million ways how to destroy competition. From industrial standards to hiring or forgiving taxes to your companies ... etc. Plus you can justify monopoly with pure nationalism or even redistribute profits through some welfare system to the people, as some sort of dividend for effort and support.


With this you can even cheat what is considered "economic certainty": It is well known that free minded people don't like taxes but most of them like stuff gambling. Therefore if you open state owned gambling or lottery the people will play but instead to the individuals the money will go to the government for the healthcare, education, infrastructure or tax cuts, since on average house always wins.



However this isn't really the economics you learn in typical western business schools.
 

Virtual ghost

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I heard of the guy and in general crazy stuff about this country. :D




*Turkmenistan has replaced North Korea at the bottom of the index*





However press problems will surely cost all of us in the future. Especially since problems are spreading even into so called "free world".
Also I can't believe that Bulgaria is in EU and in this it rates something like 115th globally for years.
 

raskol

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True, but as you see Turkey is gone and Greece is selling out to China. Just as the rest of the Balkans.
You missed my point entirely. In the 1990s, the Balkans lived through civil war and genocide following the end of the Cold War; in comparison, the current nonsense is an instance of stability, and all nations are now a part of the global economy, attached to the American supply chain. So is the case for Greece and Turkey, which are relatively stable, even amicable in their relations, compared to the 1970s. There is also no indication of a reversion to the bad old days for any of the nations in question.

Yeah I see how they hold, they are passing Russian military shipment and giving exile to pro Russian politicians.
That is an improvement compared to the Cold War, when the entire region was a Soviet buffer zone to the west. The Visegrad group, which you didn't address, is not set up to aid Russia but to provide a bulwark against its military interests.

Gruevski was pure authoritarian and they gave him asylum.
I think it's a pragmatic approach to foreign policy that should be lauded, all things considered.

While this scary government that is after him is led by the already mentioned pranked PM from the first post. Russians pranked him exactly since they are going after their man.
I fail to see the significance of this detail in the light of the greater structural concerns pertaining to America's geostrategy. The goal echoes Mackinder's incentive, to maintain relatively independent republics in Eastern Europe, which are simultaneous extensions of the American global trade imperium. This goes for every nation in the region with the exception of Belarus and Moldova. Again, compare the scenario to the Cold War, when the entire region was an extension of the Soviet economic zone and a spearhead for its military interest.

Not to mention that China established a new trading block that is heating up with all ex communist countries in ex Eastern block, do some research on that. Or who is building new nuclear power plants in the region.
China provides growth in a region suffering from economic stagnation. This interconnectedness is reliant on the global financial structure and supply chain that America set up. Meanwhile, locking arms with the Chinese economic interest provides sufficient protection for Eastern Europe vis-à-vis future Russian aggression.

If the wall is safe why Russians took over a number of big companies in my country or why we have Russian magazines at kiosks (which are also Russian at this point)
Etc. etc. I made endless post on the topic since I am from this part of the world and the point of my post is exactly that you no longer have a solid wall at the eastern border of NATO. It is time to update the map.
I assume you're Finnish, then. In that regard I can only say that your country will gradually fall back to the era of Finlandization, embracing a new version of the Paasikivi-Kekkonen doctrine. Geographically, Finland is a buffer zone between two spheres of interest, which forces upon it a special role in international affairs. The 20 years of a relatively weak Russia was not the new normal, but a temporary breath of fresh air before the hardships returned.

Well, EU recently pushed it's own Galileo system as an alternative to GPS. Russians have their own system as well, as well as someone else perhaps.
Yes, and hopefully these systems--or their replacements--will one day be able to successfully compete with GPS infrastructure, hardware as well as software.

Is this the only thing America knows as genuine problem solving ? Isolationism ?
That's hardly what I stated. To be clear, isolationism is not an option for any great power. I'll restate the argument, to be crystal clear: America's cost to uphold its global trade imperium is becoming unsustainable, because
1. global economic growth is plateauing while
2. technologically advanced hardware required to maintain the global supply chain requires increased funding.
3. In time, responsibilities to protect the global supply chain must be shared or the global trade imperium collapses.

In other words, America must downsize its obligations to the global supply chain and allow other actors a greater role, or suffer the consequences of a sudden collapse of the global economy.

If you do that US is toast for sure. Since you will collapse under you own debts, since you will have debts of a superpower without such powers and all the vacuum you leave Russia and China will very quickly fill.
That trajectory involves any future in the face of negative or flat growth and increased domestic spending.

The problem isn't in American influence and it's size, the problem is the quality of that influence. Illegal wars, climate change denial, bad healthcare and toxic food just don't impress people.
We are considering efficiency here, as it relates to global power and international trade. Moralistic argumentation constitutes the kind of rhetoric that, while necessary in many circumstances, holds no direct meaning in this context.

American measures to counter climate change, or the scope of domestic health care services, or the legitimacy of war hold no place next to the risk of a global economic meltdown. It would be the first time since the advent of the Scientific Revolution of the 1600s that we would see a reversal of our civilizational prospects.

Your only hope is to fully embrace your allies and influences and try to make a plan how to dig yourself out of this with them. What will surely requite rethinking in both manufacture policy and paradigms as well as education. Since if you just trade with goods other made you are basically just a middle man that no one needs in the end.
I don't think you're appreciating the costs of maintaining the current global trade imperium, as America does today. European free-riders were able to grow economically throughout the Cold War, and have downsized their military obligations to fit short-term political goals rather than step up to the plate.

America, (Franco-German) Europe, Russia, China, and India must enter a shared approach to protecting the global supply chain, while adapting to a legal framework that successfully sustains the global trade imperium. There is no scenario in which wars with China and Russia are defensible in any way.
 

Virtual ghost

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You missed my point entirely. In the 1990s, the Balkans lived through civil war and genocide following the end of the Cold War; in comparison, the current nonsense is an instance of stability, and all nations are now a part of the global economy, attached to the American supply chain. So is the case for Greece and Turkey, which are relatively stable, even amicable in their relations, compared to the 1970s. There is also no indication of a reversion to the bad old days for any of the nations in question.

So toward you Islamo-fascist dictatorship in Turkey is something not worth even mentioning ? The fist post you quoted actually starts with how Turkey ignored US and went for Russian weapons. Since Turkey and US aren't friends anymore due to whole bunch of reasons, coup allegations, economy, Syria ... etc. While Greece due to economic reasons is getting friendly with China and they even sold them some crucial infrastructure such as ports. Plus Greece blocked some EU documents about human rights violations.

There is no need to pretend we are having "business as usual".






That is an improvement compared to the Cold War, when the entire region was a Soviet buffer zone to the west. The Visegrad group, which you didn't address, is not set up to aid Russia but to provide a bulwark against its military interests.

Yes, but that is missing the point, which is that the trends are more towards how things used to be. I gave you some comments on Hungary, I told you what to research since this entire topic is too big for a single post, I told you what southern neighbors of Visegrad are doing and that there situation is even worse, plus I gave you the map of 16+1 trade block. What opens the question of what all those countries are doing in China led economic block if they are guarding the wall from Russia. Especially since Russia and China have economic and military pact and are even doing military exercised together.




Russia to start building two nuclear reactors in Hungary soon: Putin

Russia pre-finances extension of Hungary's nuclear power project

There are games over this but if Hungary is so pro-western as you claim this shouldn't even be the issue. Plus how do you explain that Orban expelled university of American billionaire Soros out of Hungary ? (google if you don't know about what I am talking about).

How do you comment this ?

Never-Ending Story: The Fight for Media Freedom in Slovakia

Even after so many years after the Cold war the democracy in Slovakia is undefined and scattered, while the currently ruling SMER party is basically just a spin off from the Communist country.


Biggest Czech protest since 1989 calls for PM's resignation

If you go into this deeply you will realize that the guy is authoritarian and later it leaked that he indeed supposedly worked for Security forces of the regime as a youngster. Plus Czech president was also in "the party" back in a day.


Poland is still relatively loyal but they are also in the new trade block with China and they did some serious arguing with USA and Israel over Holocaust denial. Actually general democracy level in the country seem to be pretty low and with many Putinist elements regarding law media and human rights.





I think it's a pragmatic approach to foreign policy that should be lauded, all things considered.

But why it has to pragmatic ? Why should NATO county give a asylum to the guy that is pro Russian when democratic pro-western forces at home are asking for it's return? Since he is already sentenced. However when you see what Hungary in general is doing it makes perfect sense.

I fail to see the significance of this detail in the light of the greater structural concerns pertaining to America's geostrategy. The goal echoes Mackinder's incentive, to maintain relatively independent republics in Eastern Europe, which are simultaneous extensions of the American global trade imperium. This goes for every nation in the region with the exception of Belarus and Moldova. Again, compare the scenario to the Cold War, when the entire region was an extension of the Soviet economic zone and a spearhead for its military interest.

If you don't see the problem behind the point that Russia humiliated the PM that should push his country towards west I can't help you.




China provides growth in a region suffering from economic stagnation. This interconnectedness is reliant on the global financial structure and supply chain that America set up. Meanwhile, locking arms with the Chinese economic interest provides sufficient protection for Eastern Europe vis-à-vis future Russian aggression.

But why would they even attack, the relations are pretty good between Russia and authoritarian Visegrad elites.
The whole problem is that in western media no one talks about SCO. Which is the organization that evidently has the potential to change everything as it is growing in strength and numbers.





If Visegrad and nearby countries are increasing cooperation with China they are at least indirectly getting more friendly or at least similar to Russia. But as I have shown the sympathies, similarities and talks are there. What means there is no solid border at eastern border of NATO.





I assume you're Finnish, then. In that regard I can only say that your country will gradually fall back to the era of Finlandization, embracing a new version of the Paasikivi-Kekkonen doctrine. Geographically, Finland is a buffer zone between two spheres of interest, which forces upon it a special role in international affairs. The 20 years of a relatively weak Russia was not the new normal, but a temporary breath of fresh air before the hardships returned.

Finnish ? I am Croatian.


That's hardly what I stated. To be clear, isolationism is not an option for any great power. I'll restate the argument, to be crystal clear: America's cost to uphold its global trade imperium is becoming unsustainable, because
1. global economic growth is plateauing while
2. technologically advanced hardware required to maintain the global supply chain requires increased funding.
3. In time, responsibilities to protect the global supply chain must be shared or the global trade imperium collapses.

In other words, America must downsize its obligations to the global supply chain and allow other actors a greater role, or suffer the consequences of a sudden collapse of the global economy.

Yes there has to be some sharing but not with those that are challenging for the global dominance. However in my book leaving more to others is basically inevitably isolationistic approach in practice. US is already losing influence all over the map and if it will start some major downsizing of its "obligations" then there is no way it will be able to maintain it's "game" due to loss of influence/income.


We are considering efficiency here, as it relates to global power and international trade. Moralistic argumentation constitutes the kind of rhetoric that, while necessary in many circumstances, holds no direct meaning in this context.

American measures to counter climate change, or the scope of domestic health care services, or the legitimacy of war hold no place next to the risk of a global economic meltdown. It would be the first time since the advent of the Scientific Revolution of the 1600s that we would see a reversal of our civilizational prospects.


I am sorry but this sound like a product of not understanding how the world works. The question is why would anyone give money to the economy that denies climate change when it is scientific fact ? Why give money to those that start illegal wars and push refugee waves at you ? Or those that will press our politicians to privatize our healthcare? Into which we were collectively investing for decades and with this we will basically have to pay everything once again. Why would we import a single pound of US food if it doesn't meet even the most basic of our health standards ?


There will be economic meltdown exactly since American is generally unsellable these days. While quality and morals are foundations of any real and concrete efficiency.
You really think that you can run a profitable business if people think you are: violent con artist and proud anti-intellectual tax evading law hating bigot ? The people will just go someone else, especially if the prices are just a third or less of yours.




I don't think you're appreciating the costs of maintaining the current global trade imperium, as America does today. European free-riders were able to grow economically throughout the Cold War, and have downsized their military obligations to fit short-term political goals rather than step up to the plate.

America, (Franco-German) Europe, Russia, China, and India must enter a shared approach to protecting the global supply chain, while adapting to a legal framework that successfully sustains the global trade imperium. There is no scenario in which wars with China and Russia are defensible in any way.


Propaganda, due to nuclear weapons there can be no major war in this world and that means that US didn't have to push so much money into military and adventures, since it should have followed others in economic development. After all there is plenty of economic challengers which you can't invade due to nukes. US is in current state exactly because it didn't follow the game or care what anyone at the table thinks. So it brought itself to the edge of system crash with stubborn behavior and now this is everyone's fault. After all US didn't do this out of pure desire to be helpful but it wanted to control the whole world, however that obviously failed with rise of multi-polar world.


As I explained in another thread most of my people actually want this "global imperium" with which you are so obsessed to fail, since they don't want that everything in their lives revolves around money or trade. Plus this imperium mostly just brings more totalitarian influence and goods from overseas. While mass transporting stuff across the world is bad for environment as well as our local economy, that still licks it's war wounds.
 

Virtual ghost

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North Macedonia Opposition Cites “Extortion” Video to Demand Election

The new piece of Macedonian saga.

If pro-russian nationalists really mange to provoke elections that could prove to be catastrophic for the intentions of the "free world", since the odds of them winning aren't that low. What means halting or reversing the course of going west for the country. What would further shield western Balkans from general democratic principles, while the region already serves as a platform for spreading influence of Russia and China in Europe.
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
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Jun 6, 2008
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Italy probes ties between Salvini's Lega party and Russia
Interesting but not shocking if we consider his threats to EU from business meeting in Russia.


Italian government on verge of collapse

Truth to be told polls are saying that far right parties could have enough votes to rule without anyone. Especially if they do campaign well.





Also regarding the wall at the east of "the free world".
What are the odds that this is just a coincidence ?





Btw now it is 17+1, Greece joined a few months ago.










Also when you take a look at Belt and road initiative the results are probably even worse for the west.





Especially if you take a look at how this is going globally.




China, Russia, ex Warsaw pact, Vietnam, Laos, Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia, Ex-USSR countries, most of Islam .... interesting company.

So if US and close allies don't get themselves together quickly they will lose this "game" for sure.
 

raskol

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220
So toward you Islamo-fascist dictatorship in Turkey is something not worth even mentioning ?
I haven't seen the term "islamofascist" used unironically for over a decade. The term is a ruse forged by Bush-era neocons, whose relevance is long gone. Turkey is asserting itself as a growing power, and there is nothing today that indicates that Erdogan is any less of a rational actor. Look at the investments, not the rhetoric.

The fist post you quoted actually starts with how Turkey ignored US and went for Russian weapons. Since Turkey and US aren't friends anymore due to whole bunch of reasons, coup allegations, economy, Syria ... etc. While Greece due to economic reasons is getting friendly with China and they even sold them some crucial infrastructure such as ports. Plus Greece blocked some EU documents about human rights violations.
Let's focus on the big picture rather than lose ourselves in petty details.

There is no need to pretend we are having "business as usual"...
... the trends are more towards how things used to be.
Now we are getting somewhere. The neoliberal and globalist approach of the 1990s and 2000s isn't valid today. What we are seeing, rather, is a return to the understanding of geopolitics (Mackinder, Mahan, Spykman), classical realism (Thucydides, Machiavelli, Morgenthau), the forces of history (Hegel, Kojève), and the fundamentals of economy (Smith, Ricardo). However, these insights must be applied to a world of technocracy, supranational institutionalism, and a growing power vacuum as America's superpower status declines.

Plus how do you explain that Orban expelled university of American billionaire Soros out of Hungary ? (google if you don't know about what I am talking about).
Acting on the allure of anti-Semitism is a successful election strategy, especially in Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, Hungary is deeply embedded in the neoliberal world order. Exports account for 90% of GDP, and measures to boost household spending and increase fertility rates have been quite popular.

Even after so many years after the Cold war the democracy in Slovakia is undefined and scattered, while the currently ruling SMER party is basically just a spin off from the Communist country.
Rather than remarking on what the parties call themselves, let's consider how they rule. By comparison, the Bulgarian communist party implemented a 10% flat tax and a 20% VAT as well as tax cuts for businesses in the 2000s, adapting the country to the neoliberal framework. The only countries that still struggle to reform are found in the Balkans and the Carpathians, and this is due to endemic government corruption, a poor rule-of-law tradition, and iffy private property rights. But if we consider the trajectory, I don't see a cause for concern in this regard, especially if the nations in question are able to further integrate their economies with Chinese investment projects.

If you go into this deeply you will realize that the guy is authoritarian and later it leaked that he indeed supposedly worked for Security forces of the regime as a youngster.
Why does it matter that he is authoritarian? What unites as disparate figures as Putin, Modi, Abe, Duterte, Orban, and Trump is that they all embrace the business model brought forth by the neoliberal world order.

Plus Czech president was also in "the party" back in a day.
Every European nation, with the exception of Switzerland, is at any point in time led by a strongman. This is as true for Sweden or Denmark as it is for Albania or Macedonia. The parliamentary order makes it impossible to introduce separation of powers in the American sense (re: Montesquieu).

Poland is still relatively loyal but they are also in the new trade block with China and they did some serious arguing with USA and Israel over Holocaust denial.
Here you are conflating various aspects, and it would be preferable to stay on point (balance of power and economic production) as it relates to the context. By the way, Holocaust denial is illegal in Poland, with penalties ranging from fines up to a three-year jail sentence. Yet again I think you are conflating generic anti-Semitism with actual policy, and few peoples take the trauma of WWII as seriously as the Poles.

But why it has to pragmatic ?
Because a diplomatic solution should always be preferred to idealistic warfare.

If you don't see the problem behind the point that Russia humiliated the PM that should push his country towards west I can't help you.
Rather than speaking in riddles, feel free to point out how it is significant in the larger scheme of international affairs.

But why would they even attack, the relations are pretty good between Russia and authoritarian Visegrad elites.
That's precisely my point: relations are harmonious, which benefits both America (trade) and Russia (security dilemma).

The whole problem is that in western media no one talks about SCO. Which is the organization that evidently has the potential to change everything as it is growing in strength and numbers.
That statement reveals a misunderstanding of the Sino-Russian relationship, which is deeply hostile in nature. The two great powers share a border that stretches out over more than 4,000 km. As such, SCO is put in place to have a joint forum on security cooperation, which is not equivalent to NATO. If anything, it is a lower-tier OSCE for Eurasian affairs.

If Visegrad and nearby countries are increasing cooperation with China they are at least indirectly getting more friendly or at least similar to Russia.

But as I have shown the sympathies, similarities and talks are there. What means there is no solid border at eastern border of NATO.
There doesn't need to be one. The goal is to have a buffer zone consisting of independent states, so as to minimize Russian objectives. If China is able to expand its economic interests in the region, it will provide stronger protection than NATO itself. Hopefully it will eventually lead to the disintegration of NATO, so that European membership nations will once again take their own survival seriously.

Finnish ? I am Croatian.
I must have confused you with someone else. That said, your nation is located on the preferred side of the Intermarium, which means that Croatians--much like the Finns--will always be caught in the geopolitical struggle between Western Europe and Russia proper. You are not a power unto yourself and need a larger structure in order to guarantee survival.

Yes there has to be some sharing but not with those that are challenging for the global dominance.
The challengers are the only ones that have the capacity to take over the mantle as America downsizes.

US is already losing influence all over the map and if it will start some major downsizing of its "obligations" then there is no way it will be able to maintain it's "game" due to loss of influence/income.
Considering foreign direct investment, the expansion of the neoliberal trade regime, and current relations around the world, I fail to see anything that warrants your conclusion.

I am sorry but this sound like a product of not understanding how the world works. The question is why would anyone give money to the economy that denies climate change when it is scientific fact ? Why give money to those that start illegal wars and push refugee waves at you ? Or those that will press our politicians to privatize our healthcare? Into which we were collectively investing for decades and with this we will basically have to pay everything once again. Why would we import a single pound of US food if it doesn't meet even the most basic of our health standards ?
These questions underpin a fundamental misunderstanding of economic production. America built the neoliberal trading regime during the early stages of the Cold War, and expanded its control through the IMF, World Bank, WTO, free trade agreements, Swift/Bic, etc., which makes that global trade imperium the only game in town.

There will be economic meltdown exactly since American is generally unsellable these days. While quality and morals are foundations of any real and concrete efficiency.
You really think that you can run a profitable business if people think you are: violent con artist and proud anti-intellectual tax evading law hating bigot ? The people will just go someone else, especially if the prices are just a third or less of yours.
America doesn't rely on the world to sell its products; exports account for only 12% of GDP, and at the height of the Cold War that stat hovered around 5-7%. By contrast, it's the domestic market that determines American economic power. In geopolitics, autarky is ideal while reliance on exports is a weakness.

Propaganda, due to nuclear weapons there can be no major war in this world and that means that US didn't have to push so much money into military and adventures, since it should have followed others in economic development.
Wrong again. When America faced off China and the Soviet Union during the Korean War in the 1950s, the world saw a military clash between three nuclear powers that nevertheless refrained from escalation. Rather, the war continued as though nukes weren't a factor. You see, MAD only works when all parties agree that destruction is undesirable. With Mao, Stalin, and similar ideologues, destruction is never a deterrent, which in turn forces the status-quo power to rely on military force rather than empty threats. Moreover, much of the military spending is in place to protect the global supply chain, as I presented in my previous posts.

Moreover, the R&D projects led by the U.S. military lead the world in innovation, from the internet to the smartphone. Wars are almost exclusively a waste, but the ROI of these breakthroughs make tech giants pale in comparison.

As I explained in another thread most of my people actually want this "global imperium" with which you are so obsessed to fail, since they don't want that everything in their lives revolves around money or trade. Plus this imperium mostly just brings more totalitarian influence and goods from overseas. While mass transporting stuff across the world is bad for environment as well as our local economy, that still licks it's war wounds.
Nationalist antics aside, and the misapplication of the term "totalitarian," your people don't have a say. In the grand scheme of international affairs, debating the course of action "is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" (Thucydides).
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
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Messages
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Why does it matter that he is authoritarian?

Because I will have to live under such people, as well as many many others around me.



I haven't seen the term "islamofascist" used unironically for over a decade. The term is a ruse forged by Bush-era neocons, whose relevance is long gone. Turkey is asserting itself as a growing power, and there is nothing today that indicates that Erdogan is any less of a rational actor. Look at the investments, not the rhetoric.

There doesn't need to be one. The goal is to have a buffer zone consisting of independent states, so as to minimize Russian objectives. If China is able to expand its economic interests in the region, it will provide stronger protection than NATO itself. Hopefully it will eventually lead to the disintegration of NATO, so that European membership nations will once again take their own survival seriously.

Rather than remarking on what the parties call themselves, let's consider how they rule. By comparison, the Bulgarian communist party implemented a 10% flat tax and a 20% VAT as well as tax cuts for businesses in the 2000s, adapting the country to the neoliberal framework. The only countries that still struggle to reform are found in the Balkans and the Carpathians, and this is due to endemic government corruption, a poor rule-of-law tradition, and iffy private property rights. But if we consider the trajectory, I don't see a cause for concern in this regard, especially if the nations in question are able to further integrate their economies with Chinese investment projects.

Nationalist antics aside, and the misapplication of the term "totalitarian," your people don't have a say. In the grand scheme of international affairs, debating the course of action "is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" (Thucydides).


I am sorry but this is pure trolling at best and sociopathy at worse (or you are actually anti-west and anti-democratic in political views). I am not going to go through this whole salad which is full of contradictions, false info and bad faith.


I am actually glad that you have disqualified yourself in front of everybody here.
 

raskol

New member
Joined
Jan 10, 2019
Messages
220
Because I will have to live under such people, as well as many many others around me.
For the sake of clarification, what does it matter if the leadership is authoritarian when it sustains the neoliberal economic order and the global supply chain?

I am sorry but this is pure trolling at best and sociopathy at worse (or you are actually anti-west and anti-democratic in political views).
Rather than moralizing about these matters, try to counter the actual points. We are moving toward a post-American order, by extension a decline of the West and the Enlightenment values tied to it. Let's face up to that reality rather than embracing Cold War nostalgia.

I am not going to go through this whole salad which is full of contradictions, false info and bad faith.
I'm assuming this is your way of saying that this is all above your ahead. I accept that.

I am actually glad that you have disqualified yourself in front of everybody here.
Not to go all-out Ben Sharpie Pen, but facts don't care about your feelings. If you can't make your case, it's because reality has no place for your idealism.
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
Joined
Jun 6, 2008
Messages
15,824
For the sake of clarification, what does it matter if the leadership is authoritarian when it sustains the neoliberal economic order and the global supply chain?

I rest my case on why neoliberalism has to be destroyed.
 
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