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Colonizing the moon or Mars first?

FemMecha

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There is a lot of press being given to Musk’s goal to colonize Mars. I can appreciate that goal and dreamed if it as a child, but doesn’t it make sense to establish a stable colony on the moon first?

I had understood the Mars goal to be primarily a science station that would have a longer term goal to terraform the planet and expand towards building a city scale colony.

I don’t see how this could be done without first establishing a large-scale human presence on the moon. The close proximity of the moon makes it orders of magnitude more practical and it has fewer planetary complexities like epic sand storms. Once the moon has cities with mining, machine building, then components needed to create a mars civilization could be built on the moon first and then the lower gravity and lack of atmosphere would make space launches to Mars epically more convenient.

We could work out the bugs in the colonizing process on the moon where the travel commitment is so much less and rescue missions, and re-supply missions far more feasible.

There is a romance to colonizing Mars but the moon is the realistic pragmatic first step. Why not more discussion about this?
 
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There is a lot of press being given to Musk’s goal to colonize Mars. I can appreciate that goal and dreamed if it as a child, but doesn’t it make sense to establish a stable colony on the moon first?

I had understood the Mars goal to be primarily a science station that would have a longer term goal to terraform the planet and expand towards building a city scale colony.

I don’t see how this could be done without first establishing a large-scale human presence on the moon. The close proximity of the moon makes it orders of magnitude more practical and it has fewer planetary complexities like epic sand storms. Once the moon has cities with mining, machine building, then components needed to create a mars civilization could be built on the moon first and then the lower gravity and lack of atmosphere would make space launches to Mars epically more convenient.

We could work out the bugs in the colonizing process on the moon where the travel commitment is so much less and rescue missions, and re-supply missions far more feasible.

There is a romance to colonizing Mars but the moon is the realistic pragmatic first step. Why not more discussion about this?
I think the moon makes more sense. The only thing I can think of is that the moon might not spatially align with Mars. Maybe you'd only need to wait every 28 days to get in the right spot? That's not so bad.

I suppose it would be harder to get Mars to align with Earth. A Martian year is approximately 687 days, so regardless of how it syncs up, there would be times when Mars is much further away.

Thinking about this is making me think of sets of gears, and trying to get the teeth to all line up in exactly the right way. You want it to be the shortest distance possibly because of the sheer magnitude of all the kilometers involved, but achieving that can be tricky. It's not just having the right technology but the right timing.
 

ygolo

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I think the ability to create a self-sustaining circular ecosystem and economy here on Earth (of any reasonable size) would be a good first goal before colonization of other bodies.

We can alternatively have controlled exports and imports with simulated delays.

A lot of things can be done in parallel. Ultimately, the parallel approach, with different people is more robust for a large population.
 

Virtual ghost

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The math is pretty simple if I recall the numbers correctly.

Trip to the Moon is between 0.36 million kilometers and 0.4 million kilometers depending on exact positions.
Trip to the Mars is between 75 million and 375 million kilometers depending on exact positions.


Therefore logic says that we should fist start with our own backyard. Especially since jumping over a phase in the technical process is almost always bad idea. If you can't fly over the English channel with certainty it is bad idea to start flying over the Atlantic first. Sending some scouts on Mars and other worlds yes, but colonization should start with the Moon. Especially since actual colonization will surely have pretty complicated logistics. Which is exactly why I would also first sort out problems on Earth before trying anything serious in space. Climate change and wars can pretty quickly devastate the logistics needed to colonize other bodies. Especially since colonies on other bodies wouldn't be fully self sufficient for generations (from today's point of view). The problem is simply too complex that you can jump over phases and that the whole thing will work fore sure in the end.
 

FemMecha

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I think the ability to create a self-sustaining circular ecosystem and economy here on Earth (of any reasonable size) would be a good first goal before colonization of other bodies.

We can alternatively have controlled exports and imports with simulated delays.

A lot of things can be done in parallel. Ultimately, the parallel approach, with different people is more robust for a large population.
This is a helpful thought and we have a pre-prototype with the Antarctic science station except it doesn’t need to control the atmosphere. Creating a self-sustaining system like you describe could be started in Antarctica which could deal with the extreme cold and other environmental stressors. It could also preserve humanity right here if we do end up seriously damaging the planet.
 

FemMecha

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I think the moon makes more sense. The only thing I can think of is that the moon might not spatially align with Mars. Maybe you'd only need to wait every 28 days to get in the right spot? That's not so bad.

I suppose it would be harder to get Mars to align with Earth. A Martian year is approximately 687 days, so regardless of how it syncs up, there would be times when Mars is much further away.

Thinking about this is making me think of sets of gears, and trying to get the teeth to all line up in exactly the right way. You want it to be the shortest distance possibly because of the sheer magnitude of all the kilometers involved, but achieving that can be tricky. It's not just having the right technology but the right timing.
The moon could start with science stations leading to mining and processing. If there are materials on the moon that can be used to build structures and machines there and eventually transport to Mars that would be helpful.

It could also be financed by having a luxury resort for the wealthy since it would have novel appeal and we could learn more about extended life in lower gravity and so forth.
 
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The moon could start with science stations leading to mining and processing. If there are materials on the moon that can be used to build structures and machines there and eventually transport to Mars that would be helpful.

It could also be financed by having a luxury resort for the wealthy since it would have novel appeal and we could learn more about extended life in lower gravity and so forth.
I read an interesting thing not all the at long ago about how it was discovered rater that seemed to have some kind of cave in it, and how that would be an ideal place for a colony because it could avoid the intense radiation of the sun.

Incidentally I looked at my bookshelf, and I can see how the sun has destroyed the coloration on the spines of some of my books for just 4 years. One is now white, but it used to be orange. That sun is a powerful thing.
 
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The math is pretty simple if I recall the numbers correctly.

Trip to the Moon is between 0.36 million kilometers and 0.4 million kilometers depending on exact positions.
Trip to the Mars is between 75 million and 375 million kilometers depending on exact positions.


Therefore logic says that we should fist start with our own backyard. Especially since jumping over a phase in the technical process is almost always bad idea. If you can't fly over the English channel with certainty it is bad idea to start flying over the Atlantic first. Sending some scouts on Mars and other worlds yes, but colonization should start with the Moon. Especially since actual colonization will surely have pretty complicated logistics. Which is exactly why I would also first sort out problems on Earth before trying anything serious in space. Climate change and wars can pretty quickly devastate the logistics needed to colonize other bodies. Especially since colonies on other bodies wouldn't be fully self sufficient for generations (from today's point of view). The problem is simply too complex that you can jump over phases and that the whole thing will work fore sure in the end.
You are probably correct. I don't think we really have our shit together as a species. Even in Star Trek it took things like the Bell Riots and another World War to do that. I do think that it's fun to think about.
 
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I think the ability to create a self-sustaining circular ecosystem and economy here on Earth (of any reasonable size) would be a good first goal before colonization of other bodies.

We can alternatively have controlled exports and imports with simulated delays.

A lot of things can be done in parallel. Ultimately, the parallel approach, with different people is more robust for a large population.
What do you mean by parallel in this instance? I can think of parallel wiring and parallel processing, but I cannot see how it would apply here.
 

ygolo

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What do you mean by parallel in this instance? I can think of parallel wiring and parallel processing, but I cannot see how it would apply here.
It's working on things in parallel. You can think of it as analog parallel processing.

In this case, it's more robust if different people follow different paths of research.

For instance, sustainable/circular ecosystems and economies will be needed to live anywhere.

Smaller scale experiments terraforming or containing atmospheres on the moon will be easier than trying it on Mars.

But building rockets capable of getting us to Mars in the first place requires a scale that getting to the moon(which we can already do) will not teach us alone.

Progress on any of these fronts can be made in parallel.

Different people can work on different things.
 
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It's working on things in parallel. You can think of it as analog parallel processing.

In this case, it's more robust if different people follow different paths of research.

For instance, sustainable/circular ecosystems and economies will be needed to live anywhere.

Smaller scale experiments terraforming or containing atmospheres on the moon will be easier than trying it on Mars.

But building rockets capable of getting us to Mars in the first place requires a scale that getting to the moon(which we can already do) will not teach us alone.

Progress on any of these fronts can be made in parallel.

Different people can work on different things.
Oh, I see. So you have people working on rockets capable of getting us to Mars while we are working at developing lunar colonies. Both goals are being pursued at the same time, in parallel.
 

FemMecha

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I wondered why I hadn’t heard him discuss colonizing the moon. I don’t understand why the moon is a distraction except it can’t be terraformed. It seems the moon could increase resources to get to mars and provide trial runs to minimize deaths.


I appreciate and share his vision, but I would first establish:

1. Sealed trial environment in Antarctica that serves as a template and also an immediate resource to preserve humanity on this planet.

2. Moon base expanding into a city that raises money through high end tourism and does mining operations and machine building to create larger ships and materials to launch from the moon to mars. This would increase our experience and ability to create off-earth civilization allowing for resupply and rescue missions that are more possible for when we err.

3. Colonizing Mars which could be started smaller scale alongside moon developments but focusing more on science missions and terraforming endeavors - finding frozen water sources and establishing large-scale melting, transport and irrigation of the polar caps and wherever water is found. Also we would plant lichens and mosses that grow in the severest cold climates on earth which may also be genetically modified to grow successfully on mars. Ideally these would be edible, but they are to transform the carbon heavy atmosphere into higher oxygen content. We would research the best location for settlements like at the bottom of its massive trenches.

4. After all these steps are in progress then I could see starting to build civilian cities on Mars. I wish much of the early steps were in progress.
 

FemMecha

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I see ygolo made a number of similar observations. Cheers.
 

FemMecha

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This is the first time I heard the idea of nuking the polar caps.


I understand the value of humanity colonizing Mars. I’m finding Musk complex to evaluate, agreeing with his forward thinking but disagreeing with his backwards social thinking (locking people into primary genders and pressuring women to physically give birth vs. morphological freedom and population rebalancing through immigration and technology to assist early delivery of unwanted or unsustainable pregnancies.)
 

The Cat

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The man wants human slaves so bad, it seems to me to be the underpinning foundation of everything he says and does.
 

SensEye

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Musk is full of it. None of what he says regarding Mars would pass even the most basic scientific scrutiny. If he has bought and paid for scientists who are telling him things he wants to hear (in order to continue to receive payment I presume) it just goes to show you the power of money to corrupt people.
 

Lark

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Colonizing and imperialism are bad ideas, yesterday's ideas revived, old sci fi novels like Jem are going to look bang up to date if these stupid ideas ever get the length of being realized.
 
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