Cold war 2.0

[Vendrah]

At this point I think we need this thread. Since we are evidently beyond daily politics and random instabilities around the world. Because what is happening is evidently an open beginning of new era for the world. Which kinda has similarities to the cold war but this time the situation in much more complex. Since there are multiple players and the world is much more interconnected than a few decades ago. However in the bottom line just as the last time the world can be divided into two blocks and countries that are in between the blocks or kinda neutral (usually since they are too poor and void of resources that anyone cares about them). Plus there will be plenty of events that may not look to be directly linked to this struggle but they will evidently have an impact or interconnection with it (mostly internal politics of various countries) .



The Western block:

USA - the global superpower that evidently lost it's course and got lost in the maze of problems. However despite this it is still one of the most powerful countries in the world that has huge impact on what is going on. If western bloc will win that will by a large part have something to do with how USA will arrange it's priorities.


EU - the ever closer block of countries that is trying to establish itself as a relevant player in global events. What is both kinda offensive and defensive strategy of the countries that are too small to play in the top league. Vision, regulation and human friendly rules are the strength of the block when compared to many other players in the struggle. The bock has a few satellites of their own, as well as a few political bad apples.


CANZUK - Canada, Australia, New Zealand and UK: thus far very lose group of countries that is fairly similar to the US but with some differences. The block is scattered around the world and it has low population and quite low population density for the most part. But it has observable impact on the world.


Indo-pacific allies - also a fairly lose block with links to the USA. The main countries here are Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and increasingly India. Which is finding itself isolated by hostile or autocratic neighbors. Plus there are some smaller countries that lean or could be considered to be the part of the block.


Gulf states - a number of fairly autocratic countries in the Middle East which sides with the west on most issues. Countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait ... etc. The region is very rich in energy supplies. Israel is kinda becoming a part of this story. Since the story is "pro-western parts of the Middle East".




The Eastern block:

China - the most populous country in the world that is trying to become the leading nation in the world. What it is trying to achieve through mass production of goods, autocratic but focused government, as well as huge population size. Without China this entire struggle probably would not be happening since the country is trying to remake the world order to it's image.


Russia: evident loser of the first cold war that also wants to regain some of it's lost glory and territory. Their leadership is advanced in mind games and country is rich in natural resources. What allows strength or influence above it's population size.


East leaning autocracies around the world - not really a block but a pretty large group of undemocratic countries where leadership sees their survival in following China and Russia. Which are their main suppliers of goods, security, resources or technology. Many countries can fit into the group but the most observable ones are: Belarus, Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, Pakistan, Iran, various countries in Africa, whole of central Asia, Myanmar ... etc.






Countries that still lack a clear pick in side: very large parts of the world still don't have a clear side in this political conflict and many don't even want it. However since the world is so interconnected this is the position that can be hard to manage. However despite that this is the position of some of the largest countries in the world as well as the whole parts of some continents. The most obvious countries here are Brazil, Indonesia, Philippines, Argentina, Turkey, Egypt, large chunks of Africa, .... etc.


So with this defined the only real question left is where all of this will lead and how long it is going to last. Since this can be over within a year or two or like the last time it can drag for decades. What in the end basically defines how exactly will the 21th century unfold. But ether way this will cause plenty of socio-economic turbulence abound the world since the world order isn't defined in current situation. Plus there are wildcards such as COVID19 and climate change, which can easily twist how things are playing out. Therefore this will indeed be a genuine game of thrones.

I think after 3 years "your" cold war is finally warming up.

 

[Virtual ghost]

I think after 3 years "your" cold war is finally warming up.

It is pretty warm for quite some time, now it is getting hot.
In a sense it can be argued that this isn't really cold war 2.0, this is more like slow motion WW3 at this point. But after today even that definition could get outdated.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Germany’s Merz says ‘no reason to criticize’ bombing of nuclear sites in Iran

Canada signs defense pact with EU

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[SensEye]

Looks like Iran is looking for an off-ramp. At least from the US.

Their retaliation was largely symbolic and for domestic consumption as it appears they gave the American's (and Qatari's) plenty of warning to insure no significant damage or casualties would occur.

Trump seems content for the time being and is talking negotiations once again. We'll have to see if the Israeli's are satisfied. Probably depends on further assessment as to the level of damage done to Iran's nuclear program. I see Trump is posting about a ceasefire, so we will see if that is true and if it holds.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Czech election favorite Babiš in jeopardy as court overturns fraud acquittal

Georgia sentences 4 politicians in widening opposition crackdown

Tesla accused of deceptive marketing by French government

French government to face no-confidence vote after pension talks collapse

ECOWAS gets a new leader at pivotal time for West Africa

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

NATO clinches defense spending deal in big win for Trump

Macron urges Trump to end trade war after NATO deal to boost defense spending

 

[Virtual ghost]

Von der Leyen will survive a no-confidence vote, but it won’t be painless

I wouldn't be too quick to reject the possibility of surprises in this situation.




Prepare for tough love on migration as Denmark takes over EU presidency

Germany defends end to funding Mediterranean migrant rescues

Britain considers joining European customs pact

European prosecutors crack down on fraudulent Chinese imports

Ukraine calls for special court to try Russian war leaders

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[SensEye]

Prepare for tough love on migration as Denmark takes over EU presidency

Hope this is true. It is so beneficial to get borders under control. Open borders are probably the #1 issue that leads to the rise of far right parties (as it seems only the far right is prepared to deal with them). If centrist parties could steal their thunder on this issue by enacting their own reasonably strict policies, they would poll much better. And the far left, who will stick to their open borders idealism, would probably continue to flounder (a good thing IMO).

 

[Virtual ghost]

Hope this is true. It is so beneficial to get borders under control. Open borders are probably the #1 issue that leads to the rise of far right parties (as it seems only the far right is prepared to deal with them). If centrist parties could steal their thunder on this issue by enacting their own reasonably strict policies, they would poll much better. And the far left, who will stick to their open borders idealism, would probably continue to flounder (a good thing IMO).

Danish PM is from labor party. However she took pretty strong position of protecting Denmark's borders.
On the other hand progressive left is second in the polls for quite some time.

Denmark is fundamentally quite left leaning country.

 

[Red Herring]

Pride Parade in Budapest. Between 180,000 and 200,000 people showing up (attendance can lead to arrest and a fee of up to 500 Euros - the organizers could spend up to a year in prison).

This is the strongest attendence ever in Hungary and it is probably safe to assume that this is not just in solidarity with LGBTQ folks but at least as much against Orban's oppressive government).

 

[The Cat]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Orbán vs. von der Leyen: Budapest Pride takes center stage in Europe’s culture war
Yeah, all of the above is evidently open "fuck you" to Orban more than anything else.


Serbia: Protesters demand early vote with ultimatum to Vucic
Meanwhile his neighbor and buddy is also under heavy siege for some time now.


Objectively speaking: all of this are attempts to throw out Russian influence out of mainland Europe.

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Russian threat sees Eastern Europe bring back land mines

Ukraine updates: Kyiv set to quit anti-landmine treaty

 

[Virtual ghost]

EU ambassador to Azerbaijan condemns inhuman treatment of Azeris in Russia

Azerbaijan police raid Russia's Sputnik media offices


One more old time Russian ally that is slowly falling out of the loop.