Cold war 2.0

[The Cat]

 

[ceecee]

Gotta be wondering, how they managed to flip the arms dealer, and if you aren't wondering how he's now an asset, I'll bet you are now. If you're the arms dealer, you're certainly wondering whether or not your tyrant in chief is wondering that. All morbid kidding aside, I wonder whether or not that other fellow who's been held by russia has been negotiated for?​

Well, Paul Whelan is an espionage case. He's also served most of his sentence at this point. I do love how many people on Twitter (and elsewhere) are now hostage experts with geopolitical expertise. What I do know is that the Biden admin likely took a deal that would get her home, instead of a deal that got no one home and Paul Whelan's own family says this as well.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Strategic analysis.

 

[The Cat]

 

[JAVO]

A few notable and a bit alarming observations by ISW:

An unnamed US defense source told The Times that the Pentagon is no longer insisting that Ukraine should not strike military targets within Russia.[1] The source noted that the Pentagon has changed its perspective on this matter following the recent intensification of Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure over the last few months and that the Pentagon has become less concerned regarding the risk of escalation, including nuclear escalation, with Russia.[2] The Times suggested that this development is a “green light” for Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian territory.

The increased pace of Russian attacks using Iranian-made drones follows a December 9 NBC News report that senior US officials stated that Russia is providing an unprecedented level of military and technical support to Iran in exchange for Iranian-made weapons systems...

Russian authorities plan to launch programs in Russia and occupied Ukrainian territories to prepare children for military service.

I'm sure those children will turn into highly motivated soldiers... with an innate desire to sabotage their own Russian forces.

Institute for the Study of War

An unnamed US defense source told The Times that the Pentagon is no longer insisting that Ukraine should not strike military targets within Russia. The source noted that the Pentagon has changed its perspective on this matter following the recent

www.understandingwar.org

 

[JAVO]

The former commander of the US Army in Europe thinks Ukraine has achieved "irreversible momentum," and that they'll likely liberate Crimea by the end of next summer.

@5:30

 

[Virtual ghost]

The former commander of the US Army in Europe thinks Ukraine has achieved "irreversible momentum," and that they'll likely liberate Crimea by the end of next summer.

Yeah, but let's be honest here

Russian GDP: 1.64 Trillion $
NATO and close friends GDP: 57.7 Trillion $

Therefore when the alliance decided to step in that was kinda automatic "irreversible momentum" when it comes to conventional war. Literally the closest Russia was to victory was in week 1.

 

[The Cat]

Yeah, but let's be honest here

Russian GDP: 1.64 Trillion $
NATO and close friends GDP: 57.7 Trillion $

Therefore when the alliance decided to step in that was kinda automatic "irreversible momentum" when it comes to conventional war. Literally the closest Russia was to victory was in week 1.

The only way to win is not to play.

 

[JAVO]

Yeah, but let's be honest here

Russian GDP: 1.64 Trillion $
NATO and close friends GDP: 57.7 Trillion $

Therefore when the alliance decided to step in that was kinda automatic "irreversible momentum" when it comes to conventional war. Literally the closest Russia was to victory was in week 1.

Many more factors involved than just economics though. And Russia held and annexed large regions of Ukraine after NATO started the war toy fund.

 

[Virtual ghost]

It is true that there are more factors here than just pure economics. However all of them in the end more or less stand on economics (and the desire to mobilize it).


After all now it is quite clear that my local analysts were correct from the start. Russia in the beginning had to use the troops in Belarus, but it should have used them to take areas in the most westward Ukraine (instead of the Capital). Because in that way they would cut the western support that was absolutely vital. While the west in first moment shock surely wouldn't risk direct conflict. In other words in this case you would have line Belarus, western Ukraine, Russian separatists in Moldova and then few mile thin pass next of the coast of Black sea. Which you can easily close from the sea. What means that you basically have complete surrounding of Ukraine and that would almost surely be the end of story regarding conventional war. However Russians failed in closing the gates for western help and now they have to swim up the stream (and it seems that they just lack the strength to do it). So my point was that differences in GDP and many technologies are so large that even with some kind of half help to Ukraine Russians just can't fundamentally hold this on the battlefield (or they do that with heavy losses). This is why I said that fundamentally the closest they were to winning was at the start. So for them things are just getting harder and eventually even counter attacks were possible.

That is exactly why the general from the video is almost surely correct when saying that Ukraine has "irreversible momentum,". Since the gates in the western Ukraine are wide open. Which aren't open to just military stuff but everything else as well. From what I have seen thousands of power generators crossed the border, as well as supplies to fix the power grid. Otherwise at this rate the Ukraine would completely run out of power by now and then they would have to negotiate at best. Therefore I stand by my claim that in the foundation everything here stands on economic grounds.


Plus I managed to find the piece about the generators.

Generators of hope: city-to-city relief for Ukraine

 

[JAVO]

Without military strategy, tactics, and military intelligence, all of those weapons economics supplied would be destroyed by Russian missiles or sit unused in a warehouse. Let's not academically dismiss the reality on the ground.

 

[Virtual ghost]

No one said that is not the case, but economy has huge say how much things you can have at the field. What defines your odds as well as what tactics are actually possible. Especially since economy directly defines logistics. Which has a huge say in what will happen on the long run in open conficts. There is nothing truly academic in that claim. That is a raw practical fact.

Therefore if the GDPs are kinda even then this factor doesn't matter all this much but if the difference is in dozen of times then that simply has to have tactical and strategic consequences (assuming that your high command is worth anything). It is true that low resource resistance is possible and it can work but having economic superiority really makes things much much easier and it makes it easier to absorb some punches. That is all I am saying.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Russo-Ukrainian War detailed map

Btw here is how the situation looks like on the map in detail. All icons are explained in the section bellow the map.

 

[The Cat]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Czech Republic — 2023 presidential election

I presume you aren't paying too much attention to this but there is a presidential election in Czech republic next month. In other words this should be pretty easy win for Pavel. Pro western candidate that should win over Babis (Russia friendly and almost proven corrupt person, that also owns billions and it is quite rich). While Pavle is retired general that was involved in NATO. The thing is that for many years the seat of Czech president even if now too powerful was pretty Russia friendly and generally disruptive. Therefore now it seems that this hole will be solved.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Putin cancels year-end address for first time in a decade

This just came out and this is pretty clear sign that Russia is in problems.
Plus the irony is that the war is almost surely bad for the guy's health. Since this war basically ended his life work and people tend to react badly watching their legacy crumble. While constant fear of rebellion in his own halls isn't helping his condition either.

 

[ceecee]

Putin cancels year-end address for first time in a decade

This just came out and this is pretty clear sign that Russia is in problems.
Plus the irony is that the war is almost surely bad for the guy's health. Since this war basically ended his life work and people tend to react badly watching their legacy crumble. While constant fear of rebellion in his own halls isn't helping his condition either.

Good.

 

[The Cat]

 

[Red Herring]

Good.

I'm just not sure something better is going to come after him. He is also under pressure from the nationalist right that wants him to be even harder. Many probably resent his lack of success far more than his actions (let alone intentions) themselves.

From what I can see there is neither a liberal democratic tradition to build on nor a functioning civil society to work with for a real systemic change. These things take both time and either an external or an internal disruptive force. So there might be another cautious re-approachement on an international level at best, but as far as internal politics is concerned, I'm skeptical.

 

[Red Herring]

Czech Republic — 2023 presidential election

I presume you aren't paying too much attention to this but there is a presidential election in Czech republic next month. In other words this should be pretty easy win for Pavel. Pro western candidate that should win over Babis (Russia friendly and almost proven corrupt person, that also owns billions and it is quite rich). While Pavle is retired general that was involved in NATO. The thing is that for many years the seat of Czech president even if now too powerful was pretty Russia friendly and generally disruptive. Therefore now it seems that this hole will be solved.

The Council of the European Union just announced cuts in financial support for Hungary (remarkably not because of deficits in democratic and state-of-law standards but because of accusations of corruption). There's also elections in Poland next year and it looks like Visegrád is going to be a bit less of a constant pain in the posterior for the rest of the EU. Here's hoping!