[SP] Optimism

[Jeffster]

Basically what wolfy said. I don't believe in luck: the magical quality that creates a greater likelihood that will go my way. Probability exists on the roulette wheel, but I don't think there is a quantity called "luck" that I can posess or lose, or that can "bless" me.

So, if you have an excessively long winning streak - one that probability says is very unlikely, what do you call that?

 

[Colors]

Quantum mechanics .*

<-- total dork

Optimism: "If Brian Greene says I might walk through a wall- I'm gonna do it, dammit!" (Heh, I like that so much I might make it my signature. Quoting yourself has got to be way narcissistic.)

I guess the kind of optimism I use is the optimism of ... zooming out. Like if you zoom out, or approach from another direction a tragic situation can have a humorous/wry bent- or a ridiculous situation has a heavy underpinning. We choose the view that suits our purpose, but a little perspective can help us navigate way better. That is the approach I try to take (but it is not so simple in reality).

*All realities happen, most just happen to cancel each other out./ Nothing is impossible, just highly improbable.

P.S. Very interesting use of the SP Private Forum, Jeffster. (Though I wonder if we might learn more about SP optimism if we compare it to the other temperaments... if they don't drown us out that is.)

 

[FC3S]

I've never gambled a day in my life, and I never intend to. So many factors are involved, it comes down to chance. The only reason I could ever see myself doing it, is for fun - testing the odds. Why throw away money that is better spent on material possessions? Speaking of which...

When it comes to material goods, mechanics, non-living things, and anything non-human - I prepare for the worst. When that is out of the way, I expect the best. In regards to other people, I'm very cynical. They can't be depended on.

Optimist through pessimism, aka realist.

 

[Colors]

I thought about it more, and it seems like luck might be more of social-decided sort of concept? (Kind of American, actually.)

Because I think about other cultures I have also experienced/been influenced by and they definitely reflect a very different worldview which would view "luck" as rather bizarre. One example is very fatalistic cultures, in which something that happens has the force of inevitability behind it- all the past has been inextricably marching towards that fate from the very beginning. This often ties into philosophical ideas about karma & duty very nicely.

I'm not a fatalist, but I've definitely been very influenced by them in my lifetime.

~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~

On another note, optimism is so weird. The most "optimistic" people I've known- the ones who wish the most for their idealized future (and dream the highest) are also some of the most "pessimistic" people I've known- the ones who view reality in the least positive light and view every slightly "lesser" approximation that appears in reality of their ideal as an aberration/abomination.

 

[FC3S]

I thought about it more, and it seems like luck might be more of social-decided sort of concept? (Kind of American, actually.)

Because I think about other cultures I have also experienced/been influenced by and they definitely reflect a very different worldview which would view "luck" as rather bizarre. One example is very fatalistic cultures, in which something that happens has the force of inevitability behind it- all the past has been inextricably marching towards that fate from the very beginning. This often ties into philosophical ideas about karma & duty very nicely.

I'm not a fatalist, but I've definitely been very influenced by them in my lifetime.

You're refering to chemical and chain reactions yes?

 

[Jeffster]

Anybody else wanna chime in here?

rhinosaur? 6sticks? Unique? Monkey_P? Come on, people, I need more input!

 

[wolfy]

Is 6sticks still around? I'd put my money on Grayscale showing up.

 

[me_plus_one]

Rather than perceiving this supreme force as luck, it would be more accurate to look at it as an unsurpassable energy, that can be either favourable or not. Which shouldn't have any connection to optimism. Doesn't it ever happen to you to just know if your bus is going to be late or not?

I have a pretty optimistic approach to life; I do what I desire, mostly don't think too much at it, because it's gonna be great anyway! Yeah, future can be bad, but there's no point in expecting it to be so. And I also live with a deep conviction that if I am really set for something, I will achieve it. Until now, it has worked well.

 

[Unique]

I believe in odds yes

I don't believe in luck though

Whoever wrote that thinks SPs are illogical

Which is insulting, especially to the thinking types

 

[phoenity]

When it comes to taking risks or chances, optimism or pessimism have nothing to do with it. To me, that philosophy implies there is some external force, which some call "luck", that comes into factor. I don't believe there is any such force that affects the outcome of a risk other than what is real and can be objectified enough to use for calculation. I believe that's called realism.

It's about carefully calculating your risks using all the hard data you have available, perhaps intuiting a bit further information, but not too much into the gray area as that affects the validity and accuracy of your calculation, so you can be confident of your next move. Consistent success in that next move may be perceived externally as "luck" but that's because they can't see the internal process.

Say I'm racing my bicycle around a road criterium course and I'd like to try to break away from the pack to try to win the race. There are so many factors that go into making this decision. How strong am I feeling? If I get away, how long do I have to hold this breakaway pace to finish? How strong does everyone else appear to be? Who is bluffing, watching for someone to make the next move so they can go with it? What is the wind direction on each section of the course? What is the condition of the road surface, and how well are my tires sticking to it? So I finally make my decision to sprint away from the pack just before a sharp, off-camber turn that everyone was taking slowly, since we had to take it as a group. I had a three second lead going into the corner. Since I was solo and the turn was wide open for me, I was able to calculate the best line and speed to take the corner, and every corner after that I gained even more time. There were six turns in this particular course, so even though I may not have been the absolute strongest, once I was able to get away on my own and could take turns at the highest speed possible, I essentially maximized my efficiency by maintaining the most consistent speed. But it all came down to that initial break that allowed me to get away on my own. The decision to go at that moment was made in a split second, when I felt like I was fresh enough to maintain a hard pace, when I saw that the riders most capable of covering my attack were not in the position to do so, and my chances of getting away were the highest at that point.

Anything less than that is just gambling. I am not a gambling man because I don't feel comfortable leaving decisions up to chance, especially when I know odds are not in my favor.

I've gambled once in my life in the casino on a cruise ship. I tried it because I had never done it before. I started with the slots. That lasted about 10 pulls until I figured out I had no vantage point to increase my odds of winning. It was always up to chance every time. So that got boring real fast.

Next I hit up the blackjack table. I quickly learned that blackjack gives me much more data to work with in calculating my next move. I won more than I lost, and doubled my money, but ultimately blackjack still has too much random chance involved to feel like I can own the game.

Card counting would be fun to learn



So regarding the quote that says Artisans are gamblers or random chance risk takers, I believe that is a misconception of the type in that the author just doesn't understand the internal process. I'm a calculated risk taker. I calculate my odds, and make my move in the immediate moment those odds are in my favor. Pushing the limit of those odds and "winning" every calculated risk requires total immersion in the immediate moment and leads to much enjoyment

 

[Randomnity]

I think I'm pretty optimistic about life in general but I don't believe in being "lucky"...things in life happen that are random but your preparation and response to them aren't random.

I prefer planning to relying on luck. Really, most of what phoenity/wolfy/colours/etc said applies to me too.

 

[Jeffster]

Haha, I think you guys demonstrate the SP traits just in your responses.
You all want to come up with your own word for what is basically the same as "luck." Whether you call it "probability", "chance", "odds", whatever, the point is that it describes something that isn't actually skill. The gambling example is just one, and not intended to be taken as literally saying all SPs are gamblers.

The general feeling of being able to adapt to any situation, so believing things will turn out alright, that's optimism to me. It may be partially due to skill, but it may be also due to something else that's more chance, and luck seems a pretty common way to describe that other thing.

 

[/DG/]

Am I the only SP pessimist?

 

[Jeffster]

Whoever wrote that thinks SPs are illogical

Which is insulting, especially to the thinking types

"whoever wrote that" I told you who wrote it. And no, it doesn't say anything about being illogical. You're reading something into it that isn't there. Way to act like an N.

 

[Jeffster]

Am I the only SP pessimist?

I still don't believe you ARE a pessimist until you give me some specifics.

 

[/DG/]

That takes too much effort.

*edit* Ehh, then again, it could just be my ENTJ side that shows through.

 

[phoenity]

Luck is the random chance that wins you a coin toss half of the time.

I was referring to situations where random chance is not the only factor.


I would refer to it as confidence in your ability to observe and analyze the situation objectively, and make the best next move. Random chance is that leftover probability, the gray area, that you aren't able to observe and include in your calculation, and as long as you can make that random chance relatively small compared to all other factors, you can be confident, or optimistic, in your decision.

 

[Jeffster]

Luck is the random chance that wins you a coin toss half of the time.

I was referring to situations where random chance is not the only factor.


I would refer to it as confidence in your ability to observe and analyze the situation objectively, and make the best next move. Random chance is that leftover probability, the gray area, that you aren't able to observe and include in your calculation, and as long as you can make that random chance relatively small compared to all other factors, you can be confident, or optimistic, in your decision.

Well said.

 

[wolfy]

OK, I admit it.
I'm an optimist. I see the upside in everything that happens naturally.

 

["?"]

Keirsey did coin this as optimism toward the future, but elaborated with Berens on how Improvisers look toward the future:

While someone expressing Rational may analyse the contingencies in order to avoid failure, and someone expressing Guardian may plan and prepare for the worst, people who express Artisan often trust in luck instead:

The past is water under the bridge, so forget it. The distant future is a long way off, so don’t waste time planning for it. But the next moment? Here [people expressing Artisan] shine with a natural confidence that things are going to turn their way. [They] feel lucky: the next roll of the dice, the next move, shot, or ploy will be a lucky one, never mind that the last few have failed. What comes next is bound to be a break, a windfall, some smile from Lady Luck. And once on a roll or a hot streak, [such people] believe their luck will hold, and they will push it to the limit.

…[Such people may] have an incorrigible belief that they lead a charmed life… which can get them into trouble. [They] are more subject to accidents and downturns than other temperament, injuring themselves through inattention to possible sources of setback, defeat or loss. [They] often live a life of violent ups and downs, winning a fortune one day and gambling it away the next, trusting the fickle goddess Fortune as she spins her wheel. [Keirsey]

(The influence of other temperament patterns can disrupt this trust in luck – Rational scepticism may lead to doubt, or Guardian temperance to pessimism – but even when depressed, someone who expresses Artisan can often find a way to regain their trust in luck under the right circumstances).

If one imagines that this trust in luck represents an extension of the desire for freedom, then the extension of the need for impact is a desire for perfect expression of abilities – what might be considered finesse:

Since [people expressing Artisan] are the ultimate pragmatists, everything, including people, theories, and ideas, can be tools for reaching the exhilaration that comes with the execution of a perfect act, an act full of grace, dexterity, or finesse. [Berens]