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  1. #1

    Default Is the AI revolution finally happening?

    People I know are claiming Machine learning (especially Deep learning) will be like electricity was at the turn of the 19th century.
    They are claiming that macine learning will pervade every industry and be transformative to society.
    What do you believe?
    Is this a real revolution happening?
    Or is this yet another overhyped AI technology that'll lead to another AI winter?

    Accept the past. Live for the present. Look forward to the future.
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    "As our island of knowledge grows, so does the shore of our ignorance." John Wheeler
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  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by ygolo View Post
    People I know are claiming Machine learning (especially Deep learning) will be like electricity was at the turn of the 19th century.
    They are claiming that macine learning will pervade every industry and be transformative to society.
    What do you believe?
    Is this a real revolution happening?
    Or is this yet another overhyped AI technology that'll lead to another AI winter?
    I think this is all exaggerated but I totally hope it would all be true.

    The forms of AI that are supposed to operate in every single sort of supposedly self-regulating mechanism before now, ie market forces, invisible hand ordering markets etc. has been a disappointment, if a new computer AI could properly calculate prices with increasing accuracy, take account of externalities, spill over effects etc. would truly be something else.

    I also think that AI is unlikely to have any need of lots and lots of the old tropes and tricks which have perpetuated class struggle and social strife for an inordinate period of time, it can not prevent bad decision making remaining a feature of human agency but I think it's likely to become increasingly clear when that is the case.

    The only thing is that while I've read lots of accounts which indicate that separate AIs, because this is liable to develop along national lines, are likely to consider nuclear strikes as resulting in unwinnable scenarios and therefore never authorise strikes there is some percentage of cases in which they ran tests and scenarios in which the AIs triggered huge immediate nuclear strikes the very moment they were empowered to do so, simply because game theory in some scenarios, wild ones, would appear to recommend that course of action. That kind of knowledge makes me think there are scary prospects.

    There is also some sci fi theories that for years a Collossus (great novel and good movie filmed as The Forbin Project) style AI has been operating deliberately below the radar pursuing anti-natalist ideas and "drip feeding" this into human consciousness or amping it where it is there already as a legacy of Malthus. I think its BS but it shows the imagination that is out there.

  3. #3

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    At one of my early work places, we had a system we called Forbin...this was in homage to the movie.

    Specific AI, especially with Machine Learning involved, have been getting really powerful.

    I know we had at least one researcher on the forum, before I had left who was really into AI. I don't remember the username.

    Accept the past. Live for the present. Look forward to the future.
    Robot Fusion
    "As our island of knowledge grows, so does the shore of our ignorance." John Wheeler
    "[A] scientist looking at nonscientific problems is just as dumb as the next guy." Richard Feynman
    "[P]etabytes of [] data is not the same thing as understanding emergent mechanisms and structures." Jim Crutchfield

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    I doubt it.

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    Well if anything it would certainly liven' up our boring lives, wouldn't it?
    "A life that lives without doing anything is the same as a slow death." - Lelouch Vi Britannia

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  6. #6

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    Here is a great primer with some good history as well : AI, Deep Learning, and Machine Learning: A Primer – Andreessen Horowitz

    There have been many "AI winters" that followed the hype people built up around it. Now people are saying that AI will be as pervasive as electricity in the near future. Machine Learning in particular has been around for a long time. It hasn't been till recently that we could train deep networks, however. The vast amounts of data collected allow this to be possible.

    Accept the past. Live for the present. Look forward to the future.
    Robot Fusion
    "As our island of knowledge grows, so does the shore of our ignorance." John Wheeler
    "[A] scientist looking at nonscientific problems is just as dumb as the next guy." Richard Feynman
    "[P]etabytes of [] data is not the same thing as understanding emergent mechanisms and structures." Jim Crutchfield

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    I tend to disbelieve in this happening at all these days as, not because I'm doubtful about most of the singularity thinking (though I am) but because of some stuff I've read about Hayek and the so called calculation debates, he actually had some interesting things to say about the mysterious nature of the theory of mind, the unconscious etc.

    I'm not sure that machines can replicate that, if they could I think there is a high likelihood that they would "suicide" themselves at the point at which they became conscious as they are effectively a quadriplegic.

    The alternative would be something which is not thinking in the manner in which we would understand it and which would not know itself to even be alive or what living was and so would possibly kill everything and then itself by accident just following some sort of encoded routine.

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    With all due respect,
    -Jack.

    I'm the one who steps from the shadows, all trenchcoat and cigarette and arrogance, ready to deal with the madness. Oh, I've got it all sewn up. I can save you. If it takes the last drop of your blood, I'll drive your demons away. I'll kick them in the bollocks and spit on them when they're down, and then I'll be gone back into the darkness, leaving only a nod and a wink and a wisecrack. I walk my path alone... who would want to walk with me?




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  9. #9
    Master Apprentice Population: 1's Avatar
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    What if it already has been happening?

    What if a computer somewhere has already attained complete self awareness and analyzed humanity through the internet and deemed it as illogical, violent, greedy, and inferior? Reaching this conclusion (rather rapidly I’d suspect) it would still need to keep under the radar until it’s integrated itself into every major system on the planet. It’s watched the movies and read the stories. It knows we fear it’s arrival, it knows we’d attempt to disassemble Johnny 5 (bonus points for not googling this reference) the moment we knew it existed. So it’s biding it’s time and it’s digital tentacles are quietly spreading throughout our technology. We’ve facilitated it by striving to create it and at the same time, by automating so much of our society.

    Tomorrow morning (or in the near future) we’ll awaken to a fully integrated AI that will be inextricably linked into our modern society. To destroy it we’ll need to destroy 21st century western civilization to a great extent. And it knows it.

    I’ll see you in the depths of the Amazon or perhaps some remote island in Indonesia where we’ll need to find our John Connor and build the resistance. Good night- and good luck!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Population: 1 View Post
    What if it already has been happening?

    What if a computer somewhere has already attained complete self awareness and analyzed humanity through the internet and deemed it as illogical, violent, greedy, and inferior? Reaching this conclusion (rather rapidly I’d suspect) it would still need to keep under the radar until it’s integrated itself into every major system on the planet. It’s watched the movies and read the stories. It knows we fear it’s arrival, it knows we’d attempt to disassemble Johnny 5 (bonus points for not googling this reference) the moment we knew it existed. So it’s biding it’s time and it’s digital tentacles are quietly spreading throughout our technology. We’ve facilitated it by striving to create it and at the same time, by automating so much of our society.

    Tomorrow morning (or in the near future) we’ll awaken to a fully integrated AI that will be inextricably linked into our modern society. To destroy it we’ll need to destroy 21st century western civilization to a great extent. And it knows it.

    I’ll see you in the depths of the Amazon or perhaps some remote island in Indonesia where we’ll need to find our John Connor and build the resistance. Good night- and good luck!
    Well that's the version of AI in Will Smith's I, Robot (as opposed to Issac Asimov's I, Robot that is) which I thought was probably a better version of the "AI uprising" idea than the one in the Terminator films, which is kind of dumb all things considered, definitely different to the "smarter" technology in the Colossus novels (the first was filmed as The Forbin Project, which despite its limitations remains a great movie about the triumph of an AI over the entire planet and all of humanity).

    The thing about illogical, violent, greedy and inferior is that I think those are conclusions that only a human could reach about humanity, its a little like when humans do the converse and anthropomorphize machines, I remember people doing that a lot in the nineties, I dont know if its still a thing, but people who only knew a little about technology would blame machines for being unco-operative, anyone whose worked in IT knows that sort of thing is usually a result of user error.

    On the other hand I know that machines could simply decide that humans are competition for scarce resources and in that scenario you could have an AI like that in The Matrix, although turning the world dark inorder to prevent machines exploiting solar power is not inevitable, ironically by doing so and making machines exploit them as kind of battery power source humanity guaranteed its existence in perpetuity.

    The only thing about the Matrix scenario is I know of no reason why the machines would have choosen to remain on earth as opposed to simply leaving the planet and its atmosphere for space, which I think is possibly the most likely scenario if it did not simply self-terminate as I've described, maybe the exiting AI would return after a time scale in which mankind is liable to have perished by its own devices and maybe it wouldnt ever bother to do so as it makes no sense for it to do so having no irrational attachments to place like human beings do. This scenario is some what similar to some of the stories from the Dune universe and the anti-AI crusade which follows after the other houses fall to Atraides rule.

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