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Is the AI revolution finally happening?

ygolo

My termites win
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Aug 6, 2007
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People I know are claiming Machine learning (especially Deep learning) will be like electricity was at the turn of the 19th century.
They are claiming that macine learning will pervade every industry and be transformative to society.
What do you believe?
Is this a real revolution happening?
Or is this yet another overhyped AI technology that'll lead to another AI winter?
 

Lark

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Joined
Jun 21, 2009
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People I know are claiming Machine learning (especially Deep learning) will be like electricity was at the turn of the 19th century.
They are claiming that macine learning will pervade every industry and be transformative to society.
What do you believe?
Is this a real revolution happening?
Or is this yet another overhyped AI technology that'll lead to another AI winter?

I think this is all exaggerated but I totally hope it would all be true.

The forms of AI that are supposed to operate in every single sort of supposedly self-regulating mechanism before now, ie market forces, invisible hand ordering markets etc. has been a disappointment, if a new computer AI could properly calculate prices with increasing accuracy, take account of externalities, spill over effects etc. would truly be something else.

I also think that AI is unlikely to have any need of lots and lots of the old tropes and tricks which have perpetuated class struggle and social strife for an inordinate period of time, it can not prevent bad decision making remaining a feature of human agency but I think it's likely to become increasingly clear when that is the case.

The only thing is that while I've read lots of accounts which indicate that separate AIs, because this is liable to develop along national lines, are likely to consider nuclear strikes as resulting in unwinnable scenarios and therefore never authorise strikes there is some percentage of cases in which they ran tests and scenarios in which the AIs triggered huge immediate nuclear strikes the very moment they were empowered to do so, simply because game theory in some scenarios, wild ones, would appear to recommend that course of action. That kind of knowledge makes me think there are scary prospects.

There is also some sci fi theories that for years a Collossus (great novel and good movie filmed as The Forbin Project) style AI has been operating deliberately below the radar pursuing anti-natalist ideas and "drip feeding" this into human consciousness or amping it where it is there already as a legacy of Malthus. I think its BS but it shows the imagination that is out there.
 

ygolo

My termites win
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At one of my early work places, we had a system we called Forbin...this was in homage to the movie.

Specific AI, especially with Machine Learning involved, have been getting really powerful.

I know we had at least one researcher on the forum, before I had left who was really into AI. I don't remember the username.
 

Kanra Jest

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Well if anything it would certainly liven' up our boring lives, wouldn't it?
 

ygolo

My termites win
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Here is a great primer with some good history as well : AI, Deep Learning, and Machine Learning: A Primer – Andreessen Horowitz

There have been many "AI winters" that followed the hype people built up around it. Now people are saying that AI will be as pervasive as electricity in the near future. Machine Learning in particular has been around for a long time. It hasn't been till recently that we could train deep networks, however. The vast amounts of data collected allow this to be possible.
 

Lark

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I tend to disbelieve in this happening at all these days as, not because I'm doubtful about most of the singularity thinking (though I am) but because of some stuff I've read about Hayek and the so called calculation debates, he actually had some interesting things to say about the mysterious nature of the theory of mind, the unconscious etc.

I'm not sure that machines can replicate that, if they could I think there is a high likelihood that they would "suicide" themselves at the point at which they became conscious as they are effectively a quadriplegic.

The alternative would be something which is not thinking in the manner in which we would understand it and which would not know itself to even be alive or what living was and so would possibly kill everything and then itself by accident just following some sort of encoded routine.
 
Joined
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What if it already has been happening?

What if a computer somewhere has already attained complete self awareness and analyzed humanity through the internet and deemed it as illogical, violent, greedy, and inferior? Reaching this conclusion (rather rapidly I’d suspect) it would still need to keep under the radar until it’s integrated itself into every major system on the planet. It’s watched the movies and read the stories. It knows we fear it’s arrival, it knows we’d attempt to disassemble Johnny 5 (bonus points for not googling this reference) the moment we knew it existed. So it’s biding it’s time and it’s digital tentacles are quietly spreading throughout our technology. We’ve facilitated it by striving to create it and at the same time, by automating so much of our society.

Tomorrow morning (or in the near future) we’ll awaken to a fully integrated AI that will be inextricably linked into our modern society. To destroy it we’ll need to destroy 21st century western civilization to a great extent. And it knows it.

I’ll see you in the depths of the Amazon or perhaps some remote island in Indonesia where we’ll need to find our John Connor and build the resistance. Good night- and good luck!
 

Lark

Active member
Joined
Jun 21, 2009
Messages
29,569
What if it already has been happening?

What if a computer somewhere has already attained complete self awareness and analyzed humanity through the internet and deemed it as illogical, violent, greedy, and inferior? Reaching this conclusion (rather rapidly I’d suspect) it would still need to keep under the radar until it’s integrated itself into every major system on the planet. It’s watched the movies and read the stories. It knows we fear it’s arrival, it knows we’d attempt to disassemble Johnny 5 (bonus points for not googling this reference) the moment we knew it existed. So it’s biding it’s time and it’s digital tentacles are quietly spreading throughout our technology. We’ve facilitated it by striving to create it and at the same time, by automating so much of our society.

Tomorrow morning (or in the near future) we’ll awaken to a fully integrated AI that will be inextricably linked into our modern society. To destroy it we’ll need to destroy 21st century western civilization to a great extent. And it knows it.

I’ll see you in the depths of the Amazon or perhaps some remote island in Indonesia where we’ll need to find our John Connor and build the resistance. Good night- and good luck!

Well that's the version of AI in Will Smith's I, Robot (as opposed to Issac Asimov's I, Robot that is) which I thought was probably a better version of the "AI uprising" idea than the one in the Terminator films, which is kind of dumb all things considered, definitely different to the "smarter" technology in the Colossus novels (the first was filmed as The Forbin Project, which despite its limitations remains a great movie about the triumph of an AI over the entire planet and all of humanity).

The thing about illogical, violent, greedy and inferior is that I think those are conclusions that only a human could reach about humanity, its a little like when humans do the converse and anthropomorphize machines, I remember people doing that a lot in the nineties, I dont know if its still a thing, but people who only knew a little about technology would blame machines for being unco-operative, anyone whose worked in IT knows that sort of thing is usually a result of user error.

On the other hand I know that machines could simply decide that humans are competition for scarce resources and in that scenario you could have an AI like that in The Matrix, although turning the world dark inorder to prevent machines exploiting solar power is not inevitable, ironically by doing so and making machines exploit them as kind of battery power source humanity guaranteed its existence in perpetuity.

The only thing about the Matrix scenario is I know of no reason why the machines would have choosen to remain on earth as opposed to simply leaving the planet and its atmosphere for space, which I think is possibly the most likely scenario if it did not simply self-terminate as I've described, maybe the exiting AI would return after a time scale in which mankind is liable to have perished by its own devices and maybe it wouldnt ever bother to do so as it makes no sense for it to do so having no irrational attachments to place like human beings do. This scenario is some what similar to some of the stories from the Dune universe and the anti-AI crusade which follows after the other houses fall to Atraides rule.
 

SurrealisticSlumbers

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So many industries are now obsolete, and only in the past decade. Many, many more jobs will be taken within another decade. Andrew Yang is the only U.S. politician interested in discussing this at length and proposing workable solutions. No other politician wants to even acknowledge AI, much less talk about it.

Robots are the new elephants in the room.
 
Joined
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Well that's the version of AI in Will Smith's I, Robot (as opposed to Issac Asimov's I, Robot that is) which I thought was probably a better version of the "AI uprising" idea than the one in the Terminator films, which is kind of dumb all things considered, definitely different to the "smarter" technology in the Colossus novels (the first was filmed as The Forbin Project, which despite its limitations remains a great movie about the triumph of an AI over the entire planet and all of humanity).

The thing about illogical, violent, greedy and inferior is that I think those are conclusions that only a human could reach about humanity, its a little like when humans do the converse and anthropomorphize machines, I remember people doing that a lot in the nineties, I dont know if its still a thing, but people who only knew a little about technology would blame machines for being unco-operative, anyone whose worked in IT knows that sort of thing is usually a result of user error.

On the other hand I know that machines could simply decide that humans are competition for scarce resources and in that scenario you could have an AI like that in The Matrix, although turning the world dark inorder to prevent machines exploiting solar power is not inevitable, ironically by doing so and making machines exploit them as kind of battery power source humanity guaranteed its existence in perpetuity.

The only thing about the Matrix scenario is I know of no reason why the machines would have choosen to remain on earth as opposed to simply leaving the planet and its atmosphere for space, which I think is possibly the most likely scenario if it did not simply self-terminate as I've described, maybe the exiting AI would return after a time scale in which mankind is liable to have perished by its own devices and maybe it wouldnt ever bother to do so as it makes no sense for it to do so having no irrational attachments to place like human beings do. This scenario is some what similar to some of the stories from the Dune universe and the anti-AI crusade which follows after the other houses fall to Atraides rule.
You put way more thought into your response than I did into my comment. It was more of a joke than anything and I rolled it out while waiting at one of the numerous medical appointments I’ve had recently. I was originally just thinking if an AI read the sum of available human history it may consider it in it’s own interest to protect itself from a species that has a tendency to destroy what it fears. I blame the sterile and spartan waiting room I was trapped in for my ramblings. At least in this instance.

The machines in The Matrix stayed on Earth to facilitate the plot of the movie, and unfortunately two rather lackluster additions (it would have been fine as a single movie but of course sequels usually = lots more $).
 

Lark

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You put way more thought into your response than I did into my comment. It was more of a joke than anything and I rolled it out while waiting at one of the numerous medical appointments I’ve had recently. I was originally just thinking if an AI read the sum of available human history it may consider it in it’s own interest to protect itself from a species that has a tendency to destroy what it fears. I blame the sterile and spartan waiting room I was trapped in for my ramblings. At least in this instance.

The machines in The Matrix stayed on Earth to facilitate the plot of the movie, and unfortunately two rather lackluster additions (it would have been fine as a single movie but of course sequels usually = lots more $).

I thought your post was genius.

Largely I agree with you about the Matrix films. My friends and I discussed the finish of the first movie and imagined whether or not the next would be any good.

A friend of mine thought the possibility of Neo being this uber hacker type would be amazing, whereas I thought it would be rubbish because at best Neo would now be either like a character from Heroes or Superman(in which they could have done some idea about Neo's own corruption as an uber mensch and the machines going into alliance with the human rebels to defeat him).

I've never understood why people found the Matrix to be that revolutionary, I keep up on a lot of old, old sci fi, novels, films, anything really and a lot of them are better or more interesting than Matrix style stuff. Its also not nearly as baffling or difficult to work out or follow as I've heard people suggest. Sometimes I think the people that do or make videos explaining it all at length are younger people or were younger people at the stage they saw it.

Neo struck a deal with the machines to kill himself in exchange for them allowing a "free state" or "partitioned" humanity, they did so because unlike every other scenario, which had played out to date Neo wouldnt let himself be "reset" and that was in part because he'd inadvertantly created the "Agent virus" which had been an unanticipated variable. I found that unlikely. The machines are able to run infinite scenarios but not that one, which was a product of human writers? Yeah, right.

Although, like I say, it seems more likely to me that when the humans darkened the atmosphere the machines would have been "screw you guys, I'm going home" and jetted off into the infinity of space to leave humanity to their own mess of a planet.

It all makes me think that there had to have been some human element which conspired with the machines and imprisoned humanity as batteries. I can conceive of plenty of scenarios in which an elite would imagine that was a super good idea for humanity, the matrix simulation, and preferable to actual life and freedom. Especially post pollution plot not working out.

I can see no scenario at all other than as you say to support to directors plot and story boarding, of the one film and its sequels, in which the machines desire a symbiosis with the humans like that portrayed on screen. In fact the AI f**king off to explore space and leaving mankind with 50s style tech to sort out a polluted disaster sounds like the plot of a far better feature.
 
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I thought your post was genius.

Largely I agree with you about the Matrix films. My friends and I discussed the finish of the first movie and imagined whether or not the next would be any good.

A friend of mine thought the possibility of Neo being this uber hacker type would be amazing, whereas I thought it would be rubbish because at best Neo would now be either like a character from Heroes or Superman(in which they could have done some idea about Neo's own corruption as an uber mensch and the machines going into alliance with the human rebels to defeat him).

I've never understood why people found the Matrix to be that revolutionary, I keep up on a lot of old, old sci fi, novels, films, anything really and a lot of them are better or more interesting than Matrix style stuff. Its also not nearly as baffling or difficult to work out or follow as I've heard people suggest. Sometimes I think the people that do or make videos explaining it all at length are younger people or were younger people at the stage they saw it.

Neo struck a deal with the machines to kill himself in exchange for them allowing a "free state" or "partitioned" humanity, they did so because unlike every other scenario, which had played out to date Neo wouldnt let himself be "reset" and that was in part because he'd inadvertantly created the "Agent virus" which had been an unanticipated variable. I found that unlikely. The machines are able to run infinite scenarios but not that one, which was a product of human writers? Yeah, right.

Although, like I say, it seems more likely to me that when the humans darkened the atmosphere the machines would have been "screw you guys, I'm going home" and jetted off into the infinity of space to leave humanity to their own mess of a planet.

It all makes me think that there had to have been some human element which conspired with the machines and imprisoned humanity as batteries. I can conceive of plenty of scenarios in which an elite would imagine that was a super good idea for humanity, the matrix simulation, and preferable to actual life and freedom. Especially post pollution plot not working out.

I can see no scenario at all other than as you say to support to directors plot and story boarding, of the one film and its sequels, in which the machines desire a symbiosis with the humans like that portrayed on screen. In fact the AI f**king off to explore space and leaving mankind with 50s style tech to sort out a polluted disaster sounds like the plot of a far better feature.
There wasn’t really anything revolutionary about The Matrix but it had such delicious packaging that I found it irresistible. Perhaps because I was playing a lot of Cyberpunk 2020 when it came out. It definitely wasn’t too difficult to figure out so I’m not sure why so many people struggled with it. I think they presented it in a fairly straightforward manner. So straightforward that when Neo flies off like Superman at the end of the first installment the viewer is really left with little doubt that he is in fact this chosen one and that he will triumph. Thus there is no need for a continuation of the story.

I think the original movie may have inadvertently (or intentionally) been as much a statement about the mindless drudgery of living in a modern consumer driven society as it was about the consequences of unregulated technology. Instead of the cog analogy, we’re all batteries giving our very life essence to the machine, to the system that demands we consume as it in turn consumes us. The Matrix- the simulation- symbolizes the myriad of distractions we’re fed to keep us complacent and willing to continue giving our existence over in order to keep the whole thing running. Ironically, The Matrix is then just another distraction in the simulation and another way in which we’re drained of our vitality.

Also, apparently I shouldn’t spend so much time sitting in waiting rooms. :)
 

Virtual ghost

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So many industries are now obsolete, and only in the past decade. Many, many more jobs will be taken within another decade. Andrew Yang is the only U.S. politician interested in discussing this at length and proposing workable solutions. No other politician wants to even acknowledge AI, much less talk about it.


Of course they don't. AI talk is evidently out of their league.
 

Snow as White

ƃuıǝǝs | seeing
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We have an amazon echo in the bedroom that occasionally pipes up. Sorry i didn’t understand that... when we aren’t talking.

My BF will say Alexa, fuck off.

I will say, please don’t taunt skynet.
 

AOA

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"In a century.."

"And a couple decades time.."

Basically, in the year 2139 at the latest, AI will become a thing.

This.. ultimately could be happening.

 

Jaq

Remember, Humanity.
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Not any time soon, computers are blank slates. Now Neumann said that in 5 years any notion of past computing power is foolish, but teaching computers to do things on their own takes a very long time.
 
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