The management of Conavirus (discussion)

[ceecee]

Special Report: Former Labradoodle breeder tapped to lead U.S. pandemic task force - Reuters

Shortly after his televised comments, Azar tapped a trusted aide with minimal public health experience to lead the agency’s day-to-day response to COVID-19. The aide, Brian Harrison, had joined the department after running a dog-breeding business for six years. Five sources say some officials in the White House derisively called him “the dog breeder.”

This is a kakistocracy.

 

[Z Buck McFate]

There are a lot of links I've been meaning to post here, and haven't gotten around to it because it's difficult to do on my phone. Like the stories about federal aid going predominantly to red states, or the federal government actually grabbing PPE bought by states. I've also been putting it off because I wanted to look further into it. But I think I'll just start dumping links anyway before checking on them - maybe verifying can be a group effort anyway.

Phunware, a data firm for Trump campaign, got millions in coronavirus small business help

working for President Donald Trump's re-election campaign received millions from the federal coronavirus relief fund for small businesses.

The company, Phunware, which now has about 60 employees, was eligible for the low-interest loan through the Paycheck Protection Program, which is aimed at businesses with less than 500 workers. There is no allegation of illegality associated with its loan.

But the size of the loan — $2.85 million — is nearly 14 times the current PPP average of $206,000. Meantime, hundreds of thousands of smaller businesses got nothing, because the nearly $350 billion loan program ran out of money in just two weeks.
​

 

[Z Buck McFate]

What’s Up with the Feds Seizing PPE Shipments to States and Hospitals?

The New England Journal of Medicine: In Pursuit of PPE

NPR: A 'War' For Medical Supplies: States Say FEMA Wins By Poaching Orders

San Francisco mayor says city's PPE orders have been diverted, confiscated: It 'blows my mind'

 

[Z Buck McFate]

President’s intelligence briefing book repeatedly cited virus threat

U.S. intelligence agencies issued warnings about the novel coronavirus in more than a dozen classified briefings prepared for President Trump in January and February, months during which he continued to play down the threat, according to current and former U.S. officials.

The repeated warnings were conveyed in issues of the President’s Daily Brief, a sensitive report that is produced before dawn each day and designed to call the president’s attention to the most significant global developments and security threats.

For weeks, the PDB — as the report is known — traced the virus’s spread around the globe, made clear that China was suppressing information about the contagion’s transmissibility and lethal toll, and raised the prospect of dire political and economic consequences.

But the alarms appear to have failed to register with the president, who routinely skips reading the PDB and has at times shown little patience for even the oral summary he takes two or three times per week, according to the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss classified material.

The advisories being relayed by U.S. spy agencies were part of a broader collection of worrisome signals that came during a period now regarded by many public health officials and other experts as a squandered opportunity to contain the outbreak.

As of Monday, more than 55,000 people in the United States had died of covid-19.

[...]

The frequency with which the coronavirus was mentioned in the PDB has not been previously reported, and U.S. officials said it reflected a level of attention comparable to periods when analysts have been tracking active terrorism threats, overseas conflicts or other rapidly developing security issues.

[...]

[David] Priess, author of a book on intelligence briefings for presidents, said that Trump’s predecessors have been varied in their approaches to consuming intelligence. President Barack Obama was considered an avid reader of “the book,” which was prepared for him on a specially equipped computer tablet. President George W. Bush reviewed the highlights of the PDB and often discussed its contents at length with his briefer. President Richard M. Nixon likely didn’t read the PDB, Priess said, but was extensively briefed by his national security adviser, Henry Kissinger.
​

Just for added perspective, I think 48k U.S. soldiers died in Vietnam, but also currently 45k U.S. citizens die by suicide every year.

It's worth noting that the part I bolded above has been previously reported about Trump several times, long before the pandemic issue.

 

[Virtual ghost]

As of Monday, more than 55,000 people in the United States had died of covid-19.
Just for added perspective, I think 48k U.S. soldiers died in Vietnam, but also currently 45k U.S. citizens die by suicide every year.

That is mild and incomplete perspective. Vietnam lasted for years, suicides are defined on yearly basis and Corona crisis lasts for something like month and a half at this point. Not to mention 800 000+ active known cases that can still go either way. (and economy isn't even open)

 

[Virtual ghost]

How robots contribute to easing coronovirus fallout


Kinda obvious when you think about it.

 

[Z Buck McFate]

That is mild and incomplete perspective. Vietnam lasted for years, suicides are defined on yearly basis and Corona crisis lasts for something like month and a half at this point. Not to mention 800 000+ active known cases that can still go either way. (and economy isn't even open)

This is a good point to take into account.

 

[Virtual ghost]

This is a good point to take into account.

Well, Corona is in the league of problem that is visibly higher from what US generally faces at home. Therefore the usual debates, discourse and principles generally will not work here. Fixing this will simply require some survivalist no BS logic, even if you just want to grasp the whole problem.


Perhaps the best perspective would be one 9/11 every 36-48 hours at current lock-down rate.

 

[Vendrah]

That is mild and incomplete perspective. Vietnam lasted for years, suicides are defined on yearly basis and Corona crisis lasts for something like month and a half at this point. Not to mention 800 000+ active known cases that can still go either way. (and economy isn't even open)

Actually, your observation just make his point stronger.
Corona rises exponentially if uncontrolled, but supposing that the US does a reasonable control (but not way much), we could speculate 200,000 dead people in the end of the year.
In the case of Vietnam wars, US population was 67% of what it is today, so we do have a 1.5x factor, combined that the war endured a little bit more than 15 years (but I will count as 15 years, or as 1/15x factor). These factors, combined, gives a 1/10x factor for yearly death in Vietnam.
So, in the end its 200,000 people dead for Corona, 45,000 in the suicide and 5,000 in the Vietnam war. All in an approximated yearly scale and considering the extra US population after Vietnam war.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Actually, your observation just make his point stronger.
Corona rises exponentially if uncontrolled, but supposing that the US does a reasonable control (but not way much), we could speculate 200,000 dead people in the end of the year.
In the case of Vietnam wars, US population was 67% of what it is today, so we do have a 1.5x factor, combined that the war endured a little bit more than 15 years (but I will count as 15 years, or as 1/15x factor). These factors, combined, gives a 1/10x factor for yearly death in Vietnam.
So, in the end its 200,000 people dead for Corona, 45,000 in the suicide and 5,000 in the Vietnam war. All in an approximated yearly scale and considering the extra US population after Vietnam war.

Of course it makes the point stronger, that is exactly why I said "this is mild". Because the point can be kicked much more strongly into your face. (just for the record: it is her point, not his point)



However I question your math to be honest.
In the case that US population was somewhat different that doesn't mean that more or less people would die in that war. After all in the case that it wanted the army could have sent even more people there but it didn't. Don't complicate this with population sizes, there is no need.



On the other hand corona killed 55 000 Americans in about a month and a half (mostly just in the last month). Therefore I am not sure how did you get that 200 000. Since we still have 8 months left in the year what is about 5.5 that month and a half. Therefore with 55 000 we already have that should be 357 000 by the end of the year (and there is no way this lock down will last for 8 months and the healthcare system will probably only get more and more "tired, overwhelmed and underfunded"). Therefore this will probably get much worse than 200 000 if the cure isn't found soon. The strategic screw up is serious.



I know I am bad at comforting people.

 

[Vendrah]

Of course it makes the point stronger, that is exactly why I said "this is mild". Because the point can be kicked much more strongly into your face. (just for the record: it is her point, not his point)



However I question your math to be honest.
In the case that US population was somewhat different that doesn't mean that more or less people would die in that war. After all in the case that it wanted the army could have sent even more people there but it didn't. Don't complicate this with population sizes, there is no need.



On the other hand corona killed 55 000 Americans in about a month and a half (mostly just in the last month). Therefore I am not sure how did you get that 200 000. Since we still have 8 months left in the year what is about 5.5 that month and a half. Therefore with 55 000 we already have that should be 357 000 by the end of the year (and there is no way this lock down will last for 8 months and the healthcare system will probably only get more and more "tired, overwhelmed and underfunded"). Therefore this will probably get much worse than 200 000 if the cure isn't found soon. The strategic screw up is serious.



I know I am bad at comforting people.

I didnt paid attention to the first part of your other post lol and missed the "mild" part.
I had considered 3 months of Coronavirus, which would be a start in the end of January. 1.5 month would be as Corona had started in the US in mid-March, it started way before.

My math-projection is super simple and it is linear.
If it gets a good control, it will keep linear.
If it gets a bad control, it will grow into higher values, even higher than those you mention.
But actually I should had carried the suicide and Vietnam numbers to a 3 months scale instead, it would be more proper. Im a little bit lazy to do it now lol.

About him/her, well this website could have a male/female symbol close to the avatar. This was already suggested, but it seems the MODs didnt wanted to.

About the US war, well, Im not over-complicating. 1.5x more population means a simple expectation of 1.5x more soldiers to be sent. Of course, it will depend on a lot of things (such as resources).

 

[Virtual ghost]

I didnt paid attention to the first part of your other post lol and missed the "mild" part.
I had considered 3 months of Coronavirus, which would be a start in the end of January. 1.5 month would be as Corona had started in the US in mid-March, it started way before.

My math-projection is super simple and it is linear.
If it gets a good control, it will keep linear.
If it gets a bad control, it will grow into higher values, even higher than those you mention.
But actually I should had carried the suicide and Vietnam numbers to a 3 months scale instead, it would be more proper. Im a little bit lazy to do it now lol.

About him/her, well this website could have a male/female symbol close to the avatar. This was already suggested, but it seems the MODs didnt wanted to.

About the US war, well, Im not over-complicating. 1.5x more population means a simple expectation of 1.5x more soldiers to be sent. Of course, it will depend on a lot of things (such as resources).

Yes, but in my opinion that is the wrong way to think about this. In other words we should start counting only when the pandemic really took off. This is because the rest of the year should be much more like the last month and a half than those month and a half before it. US will never again start from zero in this pandemic or at least in the current wave of it. That is why the last month and a half is a much better reference unit for looking at the future.

 

[Virtual ghost]

In other words is it possible that US will have much lower number of deaths than what my math predicts, absolutely. However I have my doubts about that since I don't see the structure or public support that would make that happen.


To put my cards on the table: I am actually glad that my government/country objectively outperformed in the expectations. This was mostly since the structure managed to trigger our collective defense mindset that is deeply in our culture, while making a few moves that are directly on the money. In other words not only that we have flatten the curve of active cases but the curve is currently falling by something like 60 degree angle. What is possible since the new daily active cases at this point are in single digits, the peak of active known cases was only around 1200 for the whole country (so the healthcare system everywhere could have processed this). While all dead can fit into a single bus (almost all of them were very chronically ill or 80+).



So what was the formula?


We closed all of our borders and implemented very very strong lockdown for everything but the most basic things (like food or healthcare) as soon as we got to something like first 70 cases.
Very soon after that on country level even the traveling around the counties was blocked by road police, what prevented virus spreading around the country side. Therefore we have parts of the country where we supposedly don't have a single active case. What is possible simply due to travel ban, because the virus physically can't get into some parts of the country. This measure really provided what no modern medicine can, virus immunity in a certain sense. Plus not needing to treat people leaves the money for other things.


From what I saw the bailout was generally around providing minimum wage for workers and keeping them from being fired (so people stayed home, especially due to 0$ needed to pay out of pocked for treatments). Those that fired people on impulse at the start were supposedly allowed simple undo. Various payments we postponed to keep people in homes. Public transport was reserved only for that that have to work and those had a specialized pass. While in smaller places public transport was probably abolished altogether.



Partisanship basically died out, since the country is on the line and politicians knew that everyone will punish those that rise drama over this. Because here when the shit really hits you are a traitor if you rise drama. While the team that is leading daily press conferences about the pandemic is made out of 2 top doctors, minister of health and minister of interior affairs (police, fire department, prison system, search and rescue ...). What makes the discourse both more believable and serious. All TV channels have constantly the mark "stay at home" at the corner of the screen. Plus the church supported the government, what is again good for low drama and social distancing.



Therefore when you take a look at what is going on around the world I really can't be unsatisfied with how this is being handled. This is how sane handling of the pandemic should look like.

 

[Virtual ghost]

I was driving around the city after a while, if we ignore gloves, masks and all that jazz the atmosphere look pretty "average". Since the pandemic is under control with only something like 650 active known cases remaining. What means that the opening of economy (and politics as usual) has started. There just isn't much point in waiting if we consider the numbers. The new normal is here.

 

[Z Buck McFate]

Frum articulated this better than I could, about Pence not wearing a mask during his visit to the Mayo Clinic. I think it also applies to the unwillingness of both of them to wear a mask.

 

[ceecee]

Coronavirus live updates: White House to wind down task force

NBC News confirms Trump's coronavius taskforce is in the early stages of winding down, according to two people familiar with the matter. The meetings in the Situation Room have been shorter and they no longer meet every day.

 

[ceecee]

How Profit and Incompetence Delayed N95 Masks While… — ProPublica

The author also has a wild assed Twitter thread, just breathtaking incompetence, profiteering and graft.

 

[rav3n]

Georgia aggressively reopened. Shockingly (not), hospitals are being over-run in the northeast, never mind existing hotspots in the south. All this was easily foreseeable and preventable. You don't need iNtuition to figure this out.

Kemp Warns Of Growing Outbreak Stressing Northeast Georgia | 90.1 FM WABE

Gov. Brian Kemp warned on Tuesday that a growing coronavirus outbreak is stressing resources in northeast Georgia.

Kemp has moved aggressively to allow businesses to reopen even though infections are on the rise in some areas of the state. He made his remarks about northeast Georgia while touring a temporary medical pod in the southwestern city of Albany, one of the state’s earliest and worst hot spots for COVID-19.

The state Department of Public health reports that nearly 30,000 Georgians have had coronavirus infections confirmed by a test. About 1,300 in the state of 10.6 million people have died.

Gainesville, a city about 50 miles northeast of Atlanta that is synonymous with Georgia’s large poultry industry, is quickly becoming one of the state’s most affected areas.

Per-capita infection rates in Gainesville’s Hall County and in nearby Habersham County are now in the top 10% of counties statewide, a list that otherwise remains mostly dominated by counties in south and southwest Georgia.

“They’re being stressed pretty hard up there at the moment,” Kemp said Tuesday while touring a temporary medical pod in southwest Georgia, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The Republican governor said contract medical workers have been sent to the Gainesville area to help fight the outbreak. A temporary medical pod is planned there as well.

 

[Z Buck McFate]

^
NYT: How Kushner’s Volunteer Force Led a Fumbling Hunt for Medical Supplies

Washington Post: Kushner coronavirus effort said to be hampered by inexperienced volunteers

 

[ceecee]

^
NYT: How Kushner’s Volunteer Force Led a Fumbling Hunt for Medical Supplies

Washington Post: Kushner coronavirus effort said to be hampered by inexperienced volunteers

Kakistocracy.