World after Corona Virus

[The Cat]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Some members have seemingly lost confidence in EU.
Like Serbia President Alexandar Vucic

and some Italians

It might be even worse if EU doesn't response well. EU might even lose more member after Brexit that happened just the beginning of the year because of confidence issue. In addition, Hungary politics is opinionated to have killed democracy.The EU Watches as Hungary Kills Democracy - The Atlantic

I sense that in the worst case EU could even expel Hungary
Hungary's emergency law 'incompatible with being in EU', say MEPs group | Hungary | The Guardian

First of all Serbia isn't in the EU, it is only a candidate country that has lower and lower chances of joining as the time goes by. Plus what their president is doing for years is Putin style dictatorship. However since corona situation for the whole country is slowly getting out of hand that might activate the groups that already tried to take out his entire establishment with marches and storming of government institutions. China and Russia as the main sponsors of "the regime" will surely try to save it but that might not be enough if things get out of hand in not too developed country. Most Serbs live pretty "minimalistic" at this point.


Second, indeed many in Italy are miserable due to general economic situation in the mix with corrupt and incompetent local politicians that created large public debt. Italy leaving EU isn't too likely since that would basically surely bankrupt the country. However leaving Eurozone and some similar structures is relatively possible. The most nationalistic party they have is actually slowly losing support.


Third, Hungary is questionable. The ruling party lost some regions in last local elections and if other EU countries make a real pressure Orban will find himself in serious economic problems in the middle of the pandemic. My bet is he will undo this once the pandemic is over to avoid pressure, especially if Trump loses in November or if most of the neighboring countries start to go crazy over this. But how and when his rule will end is generally unknown. Also EU politics is too pragmatic to expel a member since that only creates a rogue state with which you will have to deal anyway and with decreased leverage, so they will search for more subtle solution.

 

[Lark]

I honestly hope that it will result in the following:-

- People will realize the value of health and social services and properly fund them. No ifs or ands or buts.

- That never, ever again will anyone believe any nonsense about charities, volunteers, philanthropists and businesses being able to or willing to fill the gaps in health or social services.

- That while civil society (liberals), free association (socialists), spontaneous order (conservatives) are great in theory (descriptors for the same thing) none of these things amount to anything other than "trusting to luck", "trusting to chance", "trusting to good nature" and are no substitute for having a plan, actioning the plan, having decisive governance.

- I hope once and for all that its the nail in the coffin of "personal responsibility will fix this" thinking, once and for all, as personal responsibility hasnt, wouldnt and couldnt fix anything like this, no matter how "I'm alright, Jack" you may be, your neighbours misfortune will be yours as virus' could give a F**k what you think. Also this is the rule and not the exception to the rule.

- Slow, unresponsive, neglectful, inert and impotent politicians will be shown the door and some system of recall resulting in their much more rapid removal from office and substitution of a much more able candidate instead will follow shortly.

- That it will be the absolute nail in the coffin for populism, that ball bags who think they could turn their hand to politics by flattering a lot of small minded idiocy will be sufficiently scared now of having the deal with real problems that they will clear off out of it and stick to selling some other variety of snake oil.

That said I'm skeptical that any of that will really follow from all this as I've already seen the trojans and hacks at work on social media trying very hard to rehabilitate their masters and their woeful records in office. They are pulling every stunt and trick you can imagine in terms of emotional strings and a lot of the public are buying it all. As per usual.

What I do think it will establish beyond doubt:-

- If a sinister element wants to kill off entire populations of vulnerable persons they can pretty much do it by spreading disease. Governments may spend big on some stupid big sea faring vessel but they wont spend on stopping the spread of disease (neither will they defend against flood water, for the same reasons, but that may be another matter).

- The limits (or lack there of) of public acceptability of deaths within parts of the population by avoidable, preventable infection spread.

- The public acceptance (or lack there of) of death/casualties by disease versus terrorist attack, natural disaster, firestorm etc.

I do worry that with this information present or future political administrations of similar temperament will decide to reduce their tax bills simply by tolerating deaths/casualties among those who deemed by them to be "useless eaters" and the voting public will be fine with it.

All in all, and there are examples of it afoot even now, it is yet another triumph for those who do very, very poorly in public office, for a very, very handsome reward in tax payers money, with little or no accountability to the average exploited taxpayer, while a shrinking group of insanely wealthy individuals grow more and more powerful and more and more remote from the actual lived existence of everyone else, with little or no care about it.

I really dont like this, as a progressive and a socialist, this kind of build up of class war antagonism only ever results in completely destructive out breaks of violence like pretty much every revolution since the French one. In terms of actual progress amount to one step forward and about a dozen backwards. Very much so in the case of Russia and every since one after that. With all the bad precedents it set to be followed to the letter by the next bunch of morons.

 

[The Cat]

 

[typologyenthusiast]

[MENTION=4347]Virtual ghost[/MENTION]
I would predict that Orban and Hungary Parliament would be undoing it after pandemic is over, if Hungary parliament had stated Orban was rightful to rule by decree only for temporary. But, Journalists say it is indefinite or with unclear time limit.

Hungary's parliament has voted to allow Prime Minister Viktor Orban to rule by decree indefinitely,

source

Hungary’s parliament has passed a new set of coronavirus measures that includes jail terms for spreading misinformation and gives no clear time limit to a state of emergency that allows the nationalist prime minister, Viktor Orbán, to rule by decree.

source

IMO Some opportunist politicians may want to take this situation as an opportunity for maneuvering although Their maneuver may sometimes not be welcomed by their supporters, other opposing political parties. The threatening pressure Amend or Expel Hungary has been campaigned by former Italy PM, Matteo Renzi.

The new order is likely to lead to another confrontation with the bloc, with several European politicians -- including former Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi -- calling for a robust response.
"I have been dreaming of a 'United States of Europe' for years. Precisely for this reason, I have the right, and the duty, to say that after what Orban has done today, the European Union MUST act and make him change his mind. Or, simply expel Hungary from the Union," Renzi wrote on Twitter.

source
Let's see whether it will be gaining support by other member of EU and How Orban and Hungarian people will response accordingly.

 

[Virtual ghost]

[MENTION=4347]Virtual ghost[/MENTION]
I would predict that Orban and Hungary Parliament would be undoing it after pandemic is over, if Hungary parliament had stated Orban was rightful to rule by decree only for temporary. But, Journalists say it is indefinite or with unclear time limit.

source


source

IMO Some opportunist politicians may want to take this situation as an opportunity for maneuvering although Their maneuver may sometimes not be welcome by their supporters, other opposing political parties. The threatening pressure either Amend or Expel Hungary has been promoted by former italy PM, Matteo Renzi.
source
Let's see whether it will be gaining support by other member of EU and How Orban and Hungarian people will response.

Yes there is no time limit, that wasn't the argument. (probably since the time-table of the crisis is unknown)
But I have explained to you why turning Hungary into a permanent dictatorship is almost surely unsustainable at this point (unless the whole world order collapses). Also currently there is no major political mess in Hungary that I can see, since the locals generally see this as a way of handling the crisis (this is their culture). In this part of the world this is kinda natural reaction to something like this. As I explained before here "OMG the constitution and liberty" argument doesn't really exist. While once the pandemic is over Orban will no longer have the argument in front of his people are international pressures will grow. Plus here overthrowing the government is nothing unheard of, in a way it is the part of the "law of the land". Therefore it is too early for a complete freak out. Btw at this point Renzi is basically a marginal character in the story (most of his own people can't sand him). European politicians are saying all kind s of things, that isn't a real measurement.



Also I was reading one article lately that says that from purely legal perspective in my own country the Health authorities have basically created a coup over the pandemic (but all of our corona dead can fit into a single bus at this point). Therefore as warzone child I will tell you that when shit truly hits "the liberty has to wait". Otherwise you risk ending the country (and that is realistic option for US at the moment). The Hungary is basically in open wars and political struggles for something like 500 years straight at this point and therefore this is kinda natural response to a crisis. It isn't great but it is understandable. In this part of the world people are much less comfortable with scenario of a complete mess that is currently in US than with what is the Orban is doing (less then 2000 registered cases and less than 200 dead so far). Therefore if you are going to apply strong pressure now most people will take it as an attempt to undermine corona response of the country. So for now it is best not to make too much drama that can boost local propaganda that the country will have to defend itself from foreign powers once the pandemic is over. What is possible trap that Orban made. Therefore only if this order stays like this longer than the pandemic we have a real and defined problem.

 

[typologyenthusiast]

[MENTION=4347]Virtual ghost[/MENTION]
To set indefinite time could be really the reason speculation that Hungary is turning into dictatorship leadership style permanently is in the air, which I agree with, since Hungary politicians i.e the parliament and PM themselves don't commit that they will eventually end rule by decree by Hungary PM after the Pandemic is overcome, when they passed the law. If Hungarian people are like what you said have the culture of authoritarian leadership, then that might become a further support for the Hungary government to resume it even after the pandemic is over. It is possible that EU economically sanction Hungary during the pandemic that could make them having big trouble and some analyst sound to agree with you The EU needs to stop funding Viktor Orban’s emergency rule ǀ View | Euronews

But How is actually EU responding to it is my next question to raise. Do they actually take the action ?
The latest news I have read is below.

EU declines to criticise Hungary over move to rule by decree
Viktor Orban’s government accused of making power grab under cover of coronavirus crisis

Viktor Orban in parliament in Budapest on Monday. The Hungarian government has insisted that its shift to prime ministerial decree is necessary to stop the spread of coronavirus © AP
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Michael Peel and Sam Fleming in Brussels and Valerie Hopkins in Budapest APRIL 1 2020 Print this page43
Brussels has stopped short of criticising Hungary’s imposition of indefinite rule by prime ministerial decree, even as Viktor Orban’s autocratic government faces mounting accusations of making a power grab under cover of the coronavirus crisis.

Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission president, warned on Tuesday that emergency pandemic measures enforced by EU governments should be “strictly proportionate”, but did not mention Hungary by name.

The EU executive said only that it would “analyse” the new Hungarian law and “closely monitor” its application. The muted response is a sign of how the 27-member bloc’s faltering efforts to tackle autocratic creep raise the risk that governments could exploit the Covid-19 outbreak to squeeze civil liberties.

EU commissioners are due to hold talks at their regular meeting on Wednesday on the pandemic emergency powers taken on by Hungary and other governments. Ms von der Leyen said it was of “utmost importance” that health crisis measures did not breach fundamental EU principles and values. “They must not last indefinitely,” she said. “Moreover, governments must make sure that such measures are subject to regular scrutiny.”

Her moderate tone contrasted with criticism elsewhere of the powers awarded to Mr Orban by Hungary’s parliament this week. The new law extends a state of emergency imposed in March, criminalises obstruction of official efforts to deal with the disease, and threatens up to five years in jail for intentionally spreading false information about it.

It has added to fears over the direction of Mr Orban’s rule, which has eroded judicial independence and increased control over much of the media since he took power in 2010.

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Norbert Röttgen, head of the German parliament’s influential foreign affairs committee, said it “effectively eliminates opposition” in Hungary and was “a breach of basic principles that the 🇪🇺 cannot accept”.

“The EU Commission has to act immediately,” he tweeted. “The EU26, including Germany, have to demonstrate that they will not tolerate this abuse of the corona-crisis.”

Alexander Stubb, a leading figure in the European People’s party, the EU’s main centre-right grouping, said that if ever the time had come to expel Mr Orban’s Fidesz party from the EPP, “that moment is now”.

“When you start encroaching on the basic principles of what we stand for the punishment needs to be as severe as possible,” said Mr Stubb, a former prime minister of Finland. “This is in many ways a test of leadership for the whole EU and the EPP as well.”

Hungary’s shift to prime ministerial decree also sparked attacks from US politicians. Bernie Sanders, the independent US senator campaigning for the Democratic nomination in November’s presidential elections, said Mr Orban’s move was an example of how “authoritarian leaders have used moments of crisis to seize unchecked power”.

Michael McCaul, a Republican member of the House of Representatives, said it was “shameful that PM Viktor Orban is exploiting the coronavirus pandemic to seize dictatorial powers”.

Editor’s note

The Financial Times is making key coronavirus coverage free to read to help everyone stay informed. Find the latest here.

The Hungarian government insists the measures are necessary to stop the spread of the virus. Zoltan Kovacs, a government spokesperson, defended the new law by pointing to extraordinary virus measures in other countries, including Belgium and Sweden.

The sweeping powers taken on by many other EU governments are one potential obstacle to stronger commission action against Hungary. There are also theoretical safeguards to Mr Orban’s new powers, including that they can be withdrawn by parliament.

Critics says this is meaningless as Fidesz enjoys a two-thirds supermajority in parliament. The Constitutional Court’s supervision of prime ministerial decrees will also be ineffective as it is packed with ruling party loyalists.

A further problem for Brussels is the unwieldiness of the EU’s so-called Article 7 disciplinary action launched more than 18 months ago over previous Hungarian alleged breaches of bloc rules and values. The potential sanctions including suspension of EU voting rights require unanimity, but Hungary and Poland — which is also being targeted by Article 7 — have said they would block action against the other.

Additional reporting by Guy Chazan in Berlin

EU declines to criticise Hungary over move to rule by decree

 

[Virtual ghost]

[MENTION=4347]Virtual ghost[/MENTION]
To set indefinite time could be really the reason speculation that Hungary is turning into dictatorship leadership style permanently is in the air, which I agree with, since Hungary politicians i.e the parliament and PM themselves don't commit that they will eventually end rule by decree by Hungary PM after the Pandemic is overcome, when they passed the law. If Hungarian people are like what you said have the culture of authoritarian leadership, then that might become a further support for the Hungary government to resume it even after the pandemic is over. It is possible that EU economically sanction Hungary during the pandemic that could make them having big trouble and some analyst sound to agree with you The EU needs to stop funding Viktor Orban’s emergency rule ǀ View | Euronews

But How is actually EU responding to it is my next question to raise. Do they actually take the action ?
The latest news I have read is below.

EU declines to criticise Hungary over move to rule by decree

Well, it is a tricky situation and I am not a Orban fan, as I said before.
However direct assault is very likely to be a wrong strategy. If it a measure against the virus then the local people will buy it, therefore it is perhaps better to attack then the virus argument isn't so much in focus. While EU sitting and thinking is basically exactly why I said that they will try to find more subtle situation. EU almost never goes directly for the kill, even when that needs to be done.


Plus to complicate things further Orban and his allies were supporters of the current EU commission (top EU administration) when it was formed and commission didn't get too many supporters from the minimum required (if I remember correctly). I am not sure how all of this works since all of this is unprecedented but by the logic of a typical parliament in Europe the Commission can be crashed in a parliamentary vote of confidence. However if Orban tries that some other parties in the EU parliament will surely jump to the rescue.



You started your first post with "EU is in problems" since some members don't like it. However the biggest problem of the EU is that the whole union could see a disintegration into countries and blocks of countries. In my book that is currently more likely than just losing a single member here and there. In a way this is self destruction on EUs part I was talking about a number of times, more developed countries took more educated and liberal people from less developed countries through a single market. What means that at home you now have domination of those that are more nationalistic and traditional. Plus they are pissed since they are in many ways less competitive, because the competent people are out and the whole story simply snowballed. Long before you came to the forum I started to talk about this and this is basically key element of why Orban and those that are even more nationalistic than he is have together 80% of the Hungary's parliament.



Structure of Hungarian parliament



He already had a clear domination even before this. This huge support is exactly why I claim that it is perhaps wrong time for a frontal attack. Since people are standing behind him even if a typical western person will watch all of this in horror. Or if you want it in reverse someone should have pulled the plug long before we even got to this situation.

 

[Vendrah]

Opinion | She Predicted the Coronavirus. What Does She Foresee Next? - The New York Times

 

[Norexan]

"What is capitalism?

It is a belief based on if state open its borders for investors in return they will repay you and invest own money in people because they are so philanthropic. "


Stupidity of humanity is reached the cloud. I am glad Italy know its enemy, now.



I expect division of humanity into two parts: Technocrats and Naturalists. If not immediately then in 20 years after so far.