Trump vs. Biden

[Jonny]

Might as well create one of these too, since it looks like the moderates have consolidated behind Biden. It remains to be seen whether voters will reassess their support once the spotlight is back on him, but for now Biden's the most likely nominee.


Here's a graph of the 2016 national polls with the 2020 national polls, for comparison. The dotted lines are the one-year averages for Trump and Clinton, and the stars are the final actual results:





And here is the final FiveThirtyEight forecast, from right before the 2016 election. Trump ended up winning with 304 electoral votes, and based on the model he would have performed that well or better in about 10% of cases (winning around 30% of the time).

[ᴅeparted]

Biden would almost certainly win the popular vote.

The question is more how will Trump and the GOP cheat to retain power if Biden also gets enough delegates. I suspect the only way trump will leave office is by gunpoint.

[JocktheMotie]

Biden will lose.

[ceecee]

Biden will lose.

Yup

[JocktheMotie]

4 more years baby.

[Stigmata]

4 more years baby.

[Dareyth]

4 more years baby.

Yeet *dabs*

[Stigmata]

Yeet *dabs*

Goddamnit, Maou. Why do you have to be the way that you are? I read all posts in the politics subforum and always think back to Star Wars.

[Dareyth]

Goddamnit, Maou. Why do you have to be the way that you are? I read all posts in the politics subforum and always think back to Star Wars.

Not sure what you mean, but the darkside has cookies. So I am staying. You can keep the traps.

[Virtual ghost]

I really think that Supreme court argument could save Biden.


In other words the "Bernie Bros" will really have to rethink is it worth staying at home on GE day. Since with that the GOP should be able to take over the supreme court completely. Actually Bernie is probably using lines like "my friend Joe" exactly because he knows what could be at stake if too many bridges are burned.