Trump vs. Biden

[Virtual ghost]

2020 General Election Early Vote Statistics

The states above 40% of their full 2016 vote


Texas: 90.8%
Hawaii: 86.8%
Montana: 80.7%
North Carolina: 76.1%
Georgia: 76.8%
Washington 76.1%
New Mexico: 74.4%
Florida: 72.2%
Arizona: 68.3%
Oregon: 66.7%
Vermont: 67.4%
Colorado: 67.3%
New Jersey: 66.6%
Nevada: 66.1%
Tennessee: 65%
Virginia: 54.8%
Massachusetts 54.2%
California: 54.2%
North Dakota 53.5%
Wisconsin: 51.9%
Kentucky 51.7%
Iowa: 49.5%
Arkansas: 49.2%
Maine: 47.9%
Louisiana: 47%
Michigan: 46.3%
South Carolina 46%
Nebraska: 45.9%
Utah: 45.4%
Illinois: 43.6%
Ohio 41.5%
South Dakota: 40.2%
Minnesota: 40%



The whole country is on 53% toward the site.
But I don't understand what happened to Pennsylvania that is only at 32.1%

 

[Jonny]

Why 14 Critics of “Social Justice” Think You Shouldn’t Vote Trump

People will always disagree on who to vote for. People may have all kinds of reasons for choosing a particular candidate—but they almost never deliberately choose badly because they are evil, hateful or want to make the world a worse place. Most people want a fairer society and better outcomes for themselves and their fellow humans. They just differ on how to achieve this. Much of this difference seems to have to do with their moral foundations, which are largely innate, although they may change slightly with age. An individual’s basic moral intuitions—whether they are more conservative or more liberal—are unlikely to be very malleable or open to change. Nevertheless, we know that people do change their minds about which political parties best fit their moral intuitions and practical goals because right-wing and left-wing parties have been elected by the same citizenry at different times.

We are currently living in very strange times. Some influential belief systems on the left do not sit at all well with typically liberal values, while some dominant currents on the right are anathema to traditional conservatives. The worldview known as (Critical) Social Justice or wokeism seems clearly illiberal to many traditional liberals who value tolerance, universalism, individualism and freedom of belief and speech. Similarly, the post-truth populism epitomised by Donald Trump is a travesty to many traditional conservatives who value consistency and conscientiousness and seek a leader worthy of their respect.

This collection of statements from vocal critics of Critical Social Justice who believe that a vote for Donald Trump is a mistake is not intended to convince die-hard Trumpists. It is an appeal to reluctant Trump voters and to those who remain undecided. It is specifically addressed to people who value science, reason, tolerance and individual liberty but fear Critical Social Justice’s assaults on these so much that they see Trump as the only solution. These are people who fear that a vote for the Democrats will enable a cultural revolution that will harm all Americans—people who want to make America a better place for everyone and believe that voting Trump will at least prevent it from becoming a worse one.

The contributors below think this position is misguided. We come from all over the political spectrum and disagree with each other on many things. However, we are united in believing that a vote for Trump will not make America great.
​

 

[anticlimatic]

I don't mean this to sound argumentative or "go team" but I still don't see Biden winning this thing on a gut level. So just for the sake of your collective mental health, regardless of what the polls are telling you, keep your expectations tempered. Let your enthusiasm go nuts and go vote and all that, I'm not trying to be discouraging. It just seemed really rough on everyone that didn't like Trump in 2016, and I'd hate to see this year be even harder on people.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Speaking of the chances for the candidates.
True, I don't know how can anyone think that Trump can't win. Or where they got to the idea that he has only about 10% chance.
Since Trump is gaining in many swing states and the only problem with this argument which left on the table is that plenty of people already voted.



Averages from 538:


Alaska: Trump +6.7
Arizona: Biden +3.0
Colorado: Biden +13.6
Florida: Biden +1.4
Georgia: Biden +1.4
Iowa: Biden +1.5
Maine 2nd: Biden 2.7
Michigan: Biden +8.0
Minnesota: Biden +9.3
Missouri: Trump +6.8
Montana: Trump +5.4
Nebraska 2nd: Biden +6.2
Nevada: Biden +5.6
New Hampshire: Biden +11.3
New Mexico: Biden +11.3
North Carolina: Biden +2.1
Ohio: Trump +1.8
Pennsylvania: Biden +5.1
South Carolina: Trump +7.9
Texas: Trump +1.9
Virginia: Biden +11.8
Wisconsin: Biden +8.4


What is basically this map.

Therefore I don't know how they on 538 got to the idea that Trump has only 12% (some other sources have even smaller percentage). I mean the main problem are margins, Biden could have a landslide but with plenty of very narrowly won states. Therefore if margins move 2 points into the red because of polling error or whatever this will quickly become toss up election. Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa. All minor difference and all of that can be gone quickly. So the real barrier is Pennsylvania, where early voting isn't the best and Trump is gaining in polling average. Therefore in the case that there is no pretty blue Michigan and Wisconsin there should be a severe cause for concern. But this way some of the closest states will hopefully go to Biden and that will spill the glass for him. However Democrats are indeed kinda too comfortable if we judge by the numbers. Especially since national lead isn't how this game works.



But that are polls and with so much early voting the polls have kinda lost the importance. Polling a few hundred or perhaps thousands in a state where million already voted is kinda questionable methodology. Especially since polling generally targets likely voters, while the numbers indicated that none likely voters are showing up in mass in a number of important places. Therefore the only real question left is how those people actually voted, since election day will almost surely push things into the red.

 

[Jonny]

I don't mean this to sound argumentative or "go team" but I still don't see Biden winning this thing on a gut level. So just for the sake of your collective mental health, regardless of what the polls are telling you, keep your expectations tempered. Let your enthusiasm go nuts and go vote and all that, I'm not trying to be discouraging. It just seemed really rough on everyone that didn't like Trump in 2016, and I'd hate to see this year be even harder on people.

It can be really hard to tell anything about the electorate on a gut level, especially because we're talking about a small % of people in the middle. Clinton won the popular vote by 2%, and Biden is polling at 8%. But whether 49 out of 100 people are Trump supporters or 46 out of 100 people are Trump supporters would be really hard to tell from casual observation. Especially as our experience of the world becomes more distorted.

I think if someone consumes conservative media, they would undoubtedly have a gut sense that Trump would win. I go on /r/conservative, see what Fox News/Breitbart/NY Post/etc. are posting, and have a mother who is all-in on Trump. To them, Biden is both senile and corrupt and a puppet for the radical left. The choice is between anarchy/woke mob and sanity. I don't see how any reasonable person could experience those things and believe Trump won't win. He seems like the only sane choice in this reality. Also, much of this seems like 2016 2.0 with all the punditry and Biden leading in the polls. So what evidence to they have that things will be different this time?

Similarly, other media sources paint a rather bleak picture for Trump. To those who consume these, it seems much more likely Biden will win comfortably...except for that itching 2016 2.0 feeling. People are always fighting the last war when it comes to political punditry, and Trump's win was unexpected to be sure. Still, if one chooses to look at the available data, it does appear to be materially different than in 2016.

I think people are much better prepared for the possibility of a Trump victory. You can see this in the sorts of discussions they're having, and in the betting markets. And yet, though I can't speak for others, personally I find the prospect of a Trump victory to be worse than in 2016. At that time, he was more of an unknown, and I had hope that he would be a good president despite his campaign rhetoric and bluster. Yet he turned out to be much worse than I could have imagined.

I'm ready for this election to be over, whatever comes.

 

[Red Memories]

Why 14 Critics of “Social Justice” Think You Shouldn’t Vote Trump

People will always disagree on who to vote for. People may have all kinds of reasons for choosing a particular candidate—but they almost never deliberately choose badly because they are evil, hateful or want to make the world a worse place. Most people want a fairer society and better outcomes for themselves and their fellow humans. They just differ on how to achieve this. Much of this difference seems to have to do with their moral foundations, which are largely innate, although they may change slightly with age. An individual’s basic moral intuitions—whether they are more conservative or more liberal—are unlikely to be very malleable or open to change. Nevertheless, we know that people do change their minds about which political parties best fit their moral intuitions and practical goals because right-wing and left-wing parties have been elected by the same citizenry at different times.

We are currently living in very strange times. Some influential belief systems on the left do not sit at all well with typically liberal values, while some dominant currents on the right are anathema to traditional conservatives. The worldview known as (Critical) Social Justice or wokeism seems clearly illiberal to many traditional liberals who value tolerance, universalism, individualism and freedom of belief and speech. Similarly, the post-truth populism epitomised by Donald Trump is a travesty to many traditional conservatives who value consistency and conscientiousness and seek a leader worthy of their respect.

This collection of statements from vocal critics of Critical Social Justice who believe that a vote for Donald Trump is a mistake is not intended to convince die-hard Trumpists. It is an appeal to reluctant Trump voters and to those who remain undecided. It is specifically addressed to people who value science, reason, tolerance and individual liberty but fear Critical Social Justice’s assaults on these so much that they see Trump as the only solution. These are people who fear that a vote for the Democrats will enable a cultural revolution that will harm all Americans—people who want to make America a better place for everyone and believe that voting Trump will at least prevent it from becoming a worse one.

The contributors below think this position is misguided. We come from all over the political spectrum and disagree with each other on many things. However, we are united in believing that a vote for Trump will not make America great.
​

I very strongly resonate with everything here...including not ending up voting Trump...

but I wonder who will actually do something about this problem rather than enable it.

 

[Siúil a Rúin]

I think withholding any more stimulus help to the general population will cause Trump to lose votes. When we got those first checks and that personalized letter from Trump, it occurred to me that it was an effective strategy for getting votes. I assumed we would not see the next check until the weeks preceding the election, but there's nothing. All of those small business owners and working class families that are angry about the lockdowns now have a reason to be angry at Republicans and Trump directly. It probably looks like meaningless chump change to them, but to the working class, it is a lot of money. The anecdotes I read about the more reasonable Trump supporters is that they tend to be very myopic and look only at the price at the gas pump or how their 401K is doing and simply don't care about anything else. The stimulus money falls into that category of myopic self-centered concerns. It will absolutely cost Trump at least some votes. Hopefully enough to lose.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Just something that Youtube has thrown at me.

 

[Totenkindly]

The only thing about the stock market that I give some credibility is retirement funds. Depending on what someone is invested in, their 401K savings could go down -- although the older people are, the less volatile stocks they should be investing in. But for people living out of a retirement account, watching your value drop can be hard when you're wondering about your future and living on a fixed budget. So this can be impacting average people who normally don't have stocks outside of their 401K.

But I haven't looked at the details of what kinds of stocks have been bottoming out or whether they are the typical ones that people have their retirement funds invested in.

 

[Tellenbach]

No idea who's going to win.

Factors that favor Trump:
1) Riots, looting, defunding the police
2) voter enthusiasm
3) people who are sick of the Covid lock-downs, especially small business owners and their families
4) it's the economy, stupid (all the terrific economic metrics should favor the incumbent)

Factors that hurt Trump:
1) mail-in ballots, since Dems are far superior cheaters
2) negative, biased media covering for Biden and ignoring his scandals
3) seniors might be afraid to vote in person because of Covid
4) the Amish aren't very politically active and Trump really needs Pennsylvania
5) all the polls favor Biden

 

[Doctor Cringelord]

He’s just going to steal it again. That’s why I don’t trust any polls. He doesn’t need a majority of popular votes.

 

[Jaguar]

PredictIt
Which party will win the Electoral College?

 

[Totenkindly]

He’s just going to steal it again. That’s why I don’t trust any polls. He doesn’t need a majority of popular votes.

 

[Merced]

I voted already but I don't think that it's going to matter. Electoralism is starting seem more and more like a scam... Yeah, we should all vote but how does one vote a fascist out of office? And now I'm seeing all of these "Back to normal" memes... like no dude, normal wasn't good either. Obama sucked. If Biden winning means more Obama, then we might as well go through with the revolution, no? I felt like an asshole for being so staunchly Bernie or Bust because that meant I was impeding the progress of the democratic party, but fuck the democratic party. They don't give a shit about me the same way they don't give a shit about the kids in cages (that THEY put in there in the first place).

This is not at all to say I am suddenly supporting Trump or that I want Trump to win. God, no. What I am saying is that this election is instilling in me a dread that not even the 2016 election had me go through. I mean... I guess in 2016 I was 16 years old and I was a staunch capitalist because of course my world view comprehension skills were garbage, but yeah...

Maybe the sphere of LeftTube that I follow is just the downer zone, but I am feeling very sad for our nation.

 

[Jaguar]

What a bunch of Debbie Downers.

 

[anticlimatic]

https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1320909635692285953

Best ad ever.

 

[Stigmata]

https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1320909635692285953

Best ad ever.

If there's one thing Republicans are exceptional at it's effective messaging. I hope the Democrats take some notes going forward from their temporary allies at The Lincoln Project. They probably won't, though.

 

[Jaguar]

.

 

[Stigmata]

They don't give a shit about me the same way they don't give a shit about the kids in cages (that THEY put in there in the first place).

I'm gonna nitpick this because ultimately I have nothing better to do. The whole "who built the cages?" talking point just seems really weak -- there's a big difference between building cages and utilizing cages to separate children from their families, giving forced hysterectomies to illegal aliens, and having alien children die while in the custody of ICE. If those initiatives became precedent under Obama and have merely escalated while on the trajectory the previous administration had set forth, that could be a legitament argument, yet what we're seeing now clearly started with the current administration's inhumane hardline approach to deterring illegal aliens from attempting to sneak in.

But I'm not here to sing the praises of the Democratic party -- they're just as much beholden to corporations, donors, and special interests as much as the Republicans, yet are at least more willing to provide lip service to more progressive policies whilst not actually doing anything about it.

 

[Merced]

I'm gonna nitpick this because ultimately I have nothing better to do. The whole "who built the cages?" talking point just seems really weak -- there's a big difference between building cages and utilizing cages to separate children from their families, giving forced hysterectomies to illegal aliens, and having alien children die while in the custody of ICE. If those initiatives became precedent under Obama and have merely escalated while on the trajectory the previous administration had set forth, that could be a legitament argument, yet what we're seeing now clearly started with the current administration's inhumane hardline approach to deterring illegal aliens from attempting to sneak in.

But I'm not here to sing the praises of the Democratic party -- they're just as much beholden to corporations, donors, and special interests as much as the Republicans, yet are at least more willing to provide lip service to more progressive policies whilst not actually doing anything about it.

There's definitely nuance here that my hyperbole overlooked, you're right. I'm just not confident that Biden will de-escalate the crime against humanity that the situation has become. But you are right, there's a difference between starting something and bringing it to a dystopian level.