Trump vs. Biden

[Maou]

No, I don’t know it. In fact, I think they’re one of the most reputable poll aggregators out there.

Nate Silver got a lot of shit in 2016 for giving Trump such a high chance of winning. I think your bias and ignorance prevents you from seeing that.

I’ll give you one example, but I could give more...

Nate Silver's model gives Trump an unusually high chance of winning. Could he be right? - Vox

I was not debating the chances he put out, just the sampling sucked. They even rrleased an article talking about what went wrong with Trump polling.

The Real Story Of 2016 | FiveThirtyEight

All I remember is Trump having an extremly low chance of winning in November a few days before the election(iirc) on 538. I also remember people gloating saying he had zero chance, to my face. I don't remember the exact %, I said 3. I was being hyperbolic.

Anyways, statistics are not my thing. Take it what you will, but I feel 538 does a poor job.

 

[Jonny]

I was not debating the chances he put out, just the sampling sucked. They even rrleased an article talking about what went wrong with Trump polling.

The Real Story Of 2016 | FiveThirtyEight

All I remember is Trump having an extremly low chance of winning in November a few days before the election(iirc) on 538. I also remember people gloating saying he had zero chance, to my face. I don't remember the exact %, I said 3. I was being hyperbolic.

Anyways, statistics are not my thing. Take it what you will, but I feel 538 does a poor job.

From your own linked article:

Another myth is that Trump’s victory represented some sort of catastrophic failure for the polls. Trump outperformed his national polls by only 1 to 2 percentage points in losing the popular vote to Clinton, making them slightly closer to the mark than they were in 2012. Meanwhile, he beat his polls by only 2 to 3 percentage points in the average swing state. Certainly, there were individual pollsters that had some explaining to do, especially in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where Trump beat his polls by a larger amount. But the result was not some sort of massive outlier; on the contrary, the polls were pretty much as accurate as they’d been, on average, since 1968.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

If I was running for office and I knew for a fact (in some hypothetical world where that was possible) I had a 1-in-3 chance of winning, I'd feel very optimistic.

 

[Jonny]

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1187829299207954437?s=20

 

[Red Memories]

I saw an ad today discussing Tara Reade's sexual assault allegations while showing footage of "creepy Joe."

I'm planning to just write in...neither one of these people are really better than the other. The absolute best case scenario is something happens to remove Biden...

 

[Virtual ghost]

I saw an ad today discussing Tara Reade's sexual assault allegations while showing footage of "creepy Joe."

I'm planning to just write in...neither one of these people are really better than the other. The absolute best case scenario is something happens to remove Biden...

Well, objectively speaking: they are both quite old people that have to campaign country wide in the middle of the pandemic. :captain obvious:

 

[Stigmata]

I saw an ad today discussing Tara Reade's sexual assault allegations while showing footage of "creepy Joe."

I'm planning to just write in...neither one of these people are really better than the other. The absolute best case scenario is something happens to remove Biden...

It's interesting to note how all of a sudden things such as character and whether or not someone displays enough presidential ettique becomes relevant talking points again after we just spent the last 3 years putting all that on pause for a guy who was recorded as suggesting to "grab her by the pussy" and who paid off a pornstar he had an extramarital affair.

After this current administration, the right has forfeited all rights to ever bring such things up as valid criticism of a candidate seems laughable -- apparently that's all cool but Obama wearing a tan suit teeters on treasonous.

 

[anticlimatic]

The general election scenario that Democrats are dreading - POLITICO

Two mediocre stakes for democrats- lose your job, but gain a joe biden- or lose a joe biden but keep your job.
Extreme stakes for republicans- lose your job and lose a D Trump, or keep your job and keep your D Trump.

Odds go to the right, based just on this.

 

[rav3n]

It's interesting to note how all of a sudden things such as character and whether or not someone displays enough presidential ettique becomes relevant talking points again after we just spent the last 3 years putting all that on pause for a guy who was recorded as suggesting to "grab her by the pussy" and who paid off a pornstar he had an extramarital affair.

After this current administration, the right has forfeited all rights to ever bring such things up as valid criticism of a candidate seems laughable -- apparently that's all cool but Obama wearing a tan suit teeters on treasonous.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...628-false-or-misleading-claims-over-298-days/

President Trump has made 1,628 false or misleading claims over 298 days


The 25 women who have accused Trump of sexual misconduct - Business Insider

 

[Virtual ghost]

The youtube has thrown this at me. It is decent video about the map.

 

[Virtual ghost]

And now there is reverse version.

 

[Red Memories]

It's interesting to note how all of a sudden things such as character and whether or not someone displays enough presidential ettique becomes relevant talking points again after we just spent the last 3 years putting all that on pause for a guy who was recorded as suggesting to "grab her by the pussy" and who paid off a pornstar he had an extramarital affair.

After this current administration, the right has forfeited all rights to ever bring such things up as valid criticism of a candidate seems laughable -- apparently that's all cool but Obama wearing a tan suit teeters on treasonous.

Oh I agree they gave that up. But what about someone like me, who is technically a dem, who has to choose that? Part of the reason I did NOT vote for Trump is because of those things - it felt wrong on many levels considering I've experienced emotional abuse myself and if a man spoke like that of me I'd be hurt and humiliated among other things. I don't like the feel of creepy Joe either. I hate this is my options.

 

[The Cat]

Oh I agree they gave that up. But what about someone like me, who is technically a dem, who has to choose that? Part of the reason I did NOT vote for Trump is because of those things - it felt wrong on many levels considering I've experienced emotional abuse myself and if a man spoke like that of me I'd be hurt and humiliated among other things. I don't like the feel of creepy Joe either. I hate this is my options.

 

[Virtual ghost]

In the sane world not really.
In the sane world voters and none voters would just get out in November with calm heads due to ignoring the campaign and vote in mass for the third party.

 

[The Cat]

In the sane world not really.
In the sane world voters and none voters would just get out in November with calm heads due to ignoring the campaign and vote in mass for the third party.



And I say this as systemic third party voter, however due to this mindset a third of our parliament are "third" parties. By American standards this is "revolutionary" thinking but it is voting just like any other voting (at least it should be).

Ah Should land. I hear it's nice in the fall.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Ah Should land. I hear it's nice in the fall.

Yes, but you need to start form somewhere. (if you fundamentally don't agree with the current system)
Especially if you are in the so called "safe state". Someone has to put the first brick in the deliberate fashion and the bricks will quickly pile up.


I know I am making philosophy out of this but original poster is from safe state.

 

[Jonny]

If conservatives got their way:

 

[Jaguar]

If conservatives got their way:

It doesn't read: A well meaning math teacher finds herself trumped by a conservative America.
It reads: A well meaning math teacher finds herself trumped by a post-fact America.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

It doesn't read: A well meaning math teacher finds herself trumped by a conservative America.
It reads: A well meaning math teacher finds herself trumped by a post-fact America.

 

[Jonny]

It doesn't read: A well meaning math teacher finds herself trumped by a conservative America.
It reads: A well meaning math teacher finds herself trumped by a post-fact America.

No it doesn’t. How dare you attempt to correct my interpretation. You’re just like that godawful woman in the video.