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Trump vs. Biden

Jonny

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Might as well create one of these too, since it looks like the moderates have consolidated behind Biden. It remains to be seen whether voters will reassess their support once the spotlight is back on him, but for now Biden's the most likely nominee.


Here's a graph of the 2016 national polls with the 2020 national polls, for comparison. The dotted lines are the one-year averages for Trump and Clinton, and the stars are the final actual results:


D9QWDov.png



And here is the final FiveThirtyEight forecast, from right before the 2016 election. Trump ended up winning with 304 electoral votes, and based on the model he would have performed that well or better in about 10% of cases (winning around 30% of the time).


bzfgh5nwfgwx.png
 

á´…eparted

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Biden would almost certainly win the popular vote.

The question is more how will Trump and the GOP cheat to retain power if Biden also gets enough delegates. I suspect the only way trump will leave office is by gunpoint.
 

Maou

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Goddamnit, Maou. Why do you have to be the way that you are? I read all posts in the politics subforum and always think back to Star Wars.



Not sure what you mean, but the darkside has cookies. So I am staying. You can keep the traps.
 

Virtual ghost

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I really think that Supreme court argument could save Biden.


In other words the "Bernie Bros" will really have to rethink is it worth staying at home on GE day. Since with that the GOP should be able to take over the supreme court completely. Actually Bernie is probably using lines like "my friend Joe" exactly because he knows what could be at stake if too many bridges are burned.
 

Doctor Cringelord

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Not sure what you mean, but the darkside has cookies. So I am staying. You can keep the traps.

totally off topic, but when Kenobi says to Anakin, "only a sith deals in absolutes", it's funny that he himself is using an absolute.
 

Doctor Cringelord

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I really think that Supreme court argument could save Biden.


In other words the "Bernie Bros" will really have to rethink is it worth staying at home on GE day. Since with that the GOP should be able to take over the supreme court completely. Actually Bernie is probably using lines like "my friend Joe" exactly because he knows what could be at stake if too many bridges are burned.

The supreme court argument is the one they always hold over people's heads whenever we're stuck with an unpopular democrat running. I've been hearing that same argument since 2000. Another way of fear mongering so voters stick to voting for the duopoly.
 

á´…eparted

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The supreme court argument is the one they always hold over people's heads whenever we're stuck with an unpopular democrat running. I've been hearing that same argument since 2000. Another way of fear mongering so voters stick to voting for the duopoly.

Well, it's actually a thing though that really matters? We wouldn't have had Citizens United most likely if it weren't for Bush. One of many examples.
 

Virtual ghost

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The supreme court argument is the one they always hold over people's heads whenever we're stuck with an unpopular democrat running. I've been hearing that same argument since 2000. Another way of fear mongering so voters stick to voting for the duopoly.


I never said this is morally correct. I simply said that in this climate this could possibly work for Biden.


As I said I from the country where textbook globalist neoliberals are around 2% of the vote, what makes them similar to green party in USA when it comes to approval and votes. Therefore I am not really thrilled where all of this is going. I don't give the guy too big chances in November but the greatest question really is what he will do as president. Beating Trump is only the way of getting into the office. But what after that ?
 

Tomb1

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In contrast to his VP debates, Biden is a shell of his former self....call it early onset of dementia or something else but that face-lift ain't made his brain any younger.
 

Merced

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I want to die. I can't believe we are getting two terms of fascism.
 

Nicodemus

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Bernie endorsed Hillary in 2016, I suspect he will endorse Biden in 2020 if his path to the nomination ends up looking similarly improbable. It really is one of only two ways US democracy will stay somewhat intact, the other being that Bloomberg floods the country with ads to defeat Trump in Biden's name. Otherwise I have little doubt Trump will make himself de-facto king, and his canine supporters will love him for it.
 

Deprecator

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It's kinda funny when you think about it -- for all the talk here about how "dangerous" Donald Trump is (which, last I checked people in that thread were literally so desperate to come up with content that they were harping on typos from Trump's twitter feed), the best alternative that Democrats came up with was either sleepy Joe or crazy Bernie. Which to be fair, I do feel that of all the front runners Biden was the safest bet in terms of saving face -- any of the others and it would have been a clean sweep across the board.

Those most vocal with their opposition to Trump (i.e. Hollywood, wall street, pretentious foreigners, academics and media elites) generally do not understand how desperate and disgusted almost half of all Americans are at the most inept twenty year streak of presidential misgovernment in American history that preceded the 2016 election. And yet even despite all the media and Democratic party and never-trump calumny, the bulk of Trump's political program is essentially conventional, moderate, conservative wisdom derived in large part from policy recommendations of thoroughly respectable conservative think tanks. Of course, to the elites unaffected by the decline of America, it was far more convenient to simply overlook positive outcomes directly benefiting Americans like myself and instead harp upon Trump's typos on twitter before advertising their outrage.

Now like I've said repeatedly, I do genuinely feel that a large sum of anti-Trump activity is singularly devoted to the propagation of falsehoods (i.e. claiming that Trump had called neo-nazi's "very fine people" or has otherwise denied climate change), which were then justified by the selective and often intentional misinterpretation of Trump's ambiguous or out of context comments. Distaste for Trump's straight-shooting and often vulgar style caused otherwise intelligent people to withhold any benefit of the doubt, thus resulting in the pathological interpretation of virtually anything he said or did in the worst possible light and then paving the way for the famed diagnosis of Trump Derangement Syndrome. It doesn't matter what he says or does -- he could single-handedly invent the catch-all cure for the upcoming Dos Equis virus, and the never-Trump bandwagon would still lash out and criticize.

The Democrats have had no policy for years now except to denigrate their opponents, play identity politics and then commit all their energy to proving their assumed self-evident proposition that Trump could not win, and then that his victory could be undone with an endless stream investigations, indictments, and charges of obstruction that were so obscure that they could not convince a single congressional Republican of its merit. Despite these fits and tantrums, here we are now in election year and Trump still boasts unprecedented popularity within his party -- he has reduced most people's tax burden, alleviated fear that recession or unemployment were just around the corner and all while fulfilling a myriad of campaign promises. And like I've been saying for years now on this forum, Americans will judge his 4 years a tremendous success and he very easily wins his bid for this upcoming election.
 
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