Trump vs. Biden

[Jaguar]

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[rav3n]

Quinnipac has an 83% accuracy rating from 538.

Pollster Ratings | FiveThirtyEight

 

[Red Memories]

Quinnipac has an 83% accuracy rating from 538.

Pollster Ratings | FiveThirtyEight

thanks for some data.

But also, do these polls give an option perhaps of who would merely do neither? For instance, if someone right now asked me Trump or Biden, I'd rather not vote for either one. I'm very strongly considering 3rd party/independent voting this time. I did last time as well since I liked neither candidate but I don't feel comfortable with either one of these candidates at this point.

 

[rav3n]

thanks for some data.

But also, do these polls give an option perhaps of who would merely do neither? For instance, if someone right now asked me Trump or Biden, I'd rather not vote for either one. I'm very strongly considering 3rd party/independent voting this time. I did last time as well since I liked neither candidate but I don't feel comfortable with either one of these candidates at this point.

It took me around 30 seconds to google the details of the poll and around a minute to scan the data. You can do this yourself, just as quickly. They asked people distinct questions about Trump and Biden, hence incorporates the input from 'your people' of negativity towards both.

National (US) Poll - May 20, 2020 - Biden Holds 11 Point Lead As T | Quinnipiac University Connecticut

 

[rav3n]

Trump to lose 2020 election in a landslide defeat, model predicts | The Independent

A national election model has predicted that Donald Trump will suffer a “historic defeat” in November’s election due to the coronavirus economic recession.

The model by Oxford Economics uses unemployment, disposable income and inflation to forecast election results to predict the elections outcome.

According to the model, Mr Trump will lose in a landslide, capturing just 35 per cent of the popular vote, according to a report by CNN.

The model has predicted the winner of the popular vote in 16 of the past 18 elections and is a complete reversal of what the model was predicting before the coronavirus outbreak hit the US.

Before the public health crisis, Oxford Economics predicted that Mr Trump would win about 55 per cent of the vote, CNN reported.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

I've come to the conclusion that while models are useful, they're only useful relatively close to the election. Like, a week or two before at most.

Models said that after Nevada, Sanders was going to win the nomination. Then South Carolina happened (a week before Super Tuesday), which caused the models to shift, followed by all the people dropping out and endorsing Biden,. This shifted the models. Likewise, in 2016, Hilalry had favorable odds, until a week or two before when Comey made his bumbling announcement. That shifted models to be more favorable towards Trump.

Keep in mind that no Presidential elections in modern times have been held under the conditions of a pandemic.

The predictive power of these forecasts doesn't seem to be very much at this point.

 

[anticlimatic]

Business has exploded since yesterday, the day before official lock-down ended in my area. Traffic seems to be up to pre-covid levels. Most of the businesses that had been closed for months are suddenly open, like a light switch. Fingers crossed, but (at least in my area) the economy seems to have survived the epidemic. Most people are still wearing masks when they go indoors anywhere public, and following general safe protocols NOT like they were doing before the lock-down, but the attitude of the community seems very upbeat for the first time since this started. I think Trump is going to catch the rebound and run with it.

 

[Jaguar]

Trump will lose in a landslide because of the economy, new election model predicts - CNN

The economy has gone from President Donald Trump's greatest political asset to perhaps his biggest weakness. Unemployment is spiking at an unprecedented rate. Consumer spending is vanishing. And GDP is collapsing. History shows that dreadful economic trends like these spell doom for sitting presidents seeking reelection. The coronavirus recession will cause Trump to suffer a "historic defeat" in November, a national election model released Wednesday by Oxford Economics predicted.

The model, which uses unemployment, disposable income and inflation to forecast election results, predicts that Trump will lose in a landslide, capturing just 35% of the popular vote. That's a sharp reversal from the model's pre-crisis prediction that Trump would win about 55% of the vote. And it would be the worst performance for an incumbent in a century.

"It would take nothing short of an economic miracle for pocketbooks to favor Trump," Oxford Economics wrote in the report, adding that the economy will be a "nearly insurmountable obstacle for Trump come November."

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Business has exploded since yesterday, the day before official lock-down ended in my area. Traffic seems to be up to pre-covid levels. Most of the businesses that had been closed for months are suddenly open, like a light switch. Fingers crossed, but (at least in my area) the economy seems to have survived the epidemic. Most people are still wearing masks when they go indoors anywhere public, and following general safe protocols NOT like they were doing before the lock-down, but the attitude of the community seems very upbeat for the first time since this started. I think Trump is going to catch the rebound and run with it.

For it to truly be a rebound, unemployment would have to go way down very quickly. I'm not saying that could never happen, but I find that unlikely. I could imagine employers being skittish about hiring people back on for a while. I don't think they would hire people if they thought they were going to have to let them go again if another wave of the virus hits.

While the media may feel that a booming stock market indicates a recovery, it's not one of the things that actually matters to people. One of the things that does matter to people is unemployment.

 

[anticlimatic]

For it to truly be a rebound, unemployment would have to go way down very quickly. I'm not saying that could never happen, but I find that unlikely. I could imagine employers being skittish about hiring people back on for a while. I don't think they would hire people if they thought they were going to have to let them go again if another wave of the virus hits.

While the media may feel that a booming stock market indicates a recovery, it's not one of the things that actually matters to people. One of the things that does matter to people is unemployment.

It will definitely take a permanent hit. I know a lot of people still laid off because of restrictions, but eventually I think they will be able to get back to work. I think the virus will have a similar effect on businesses as people- killing off the weak ones who were close to folding anyhow. Still, I think there will be a large jump in employment the next time we get a jobs report, though it might be a lagging indicator that takes a little while. A lot seem to be holding out for signs of an impending return to normalcy, which we are beginning to see on the horizon.

 

[Jonny]

K



I understand how odds work. No need for the presumption that I don't.

I'd take Trump at -125 to -135. What are your odds for Joe?

Ok, so you’d give Trump maybe a 55-60% shot then. I’d take those odds, because at this point I’m closer to 50/50...too much can change between now and the election so I’m not sure of anything. And some fundamental aspects of the 2020 election are still in play, like vote-by-Mail.

But I think if the election were held today Trump would lose...I’d put his chances at maybe 20%. Recent polling in Florida and Arizona, for instance, don’t paint a rosey picture for him. As much as people like to shit on the 2016 polls, they weren’t that far off the mark.

Do you still like Mitt Romney? Would you prefer him to Trump?

 

[DiscoBiscuit]

Ok, so you’d give Trump maybe a 55-60% shot then. I’d take those odds, because at this point I’m closer to 50/50...too much can change between now and the election so I’m not sure of anything. And some fundamental aspects of the 2020 election are still in play, like vote-by-Mail.

But I think if the election were held today Trump would lose...I’d put his chances at maybe 20%. Recent polling in Florida and Arizona, for instance, don’t paint a rosey picture for him. As much as people like to shit on the 2016 polls, they weren’t that far off the mark.

Do you still like Mitt Romney? Would you prefer him to Trump?

Mitt Romney can get fucked.

 

[Jonny]

Mitt Romney can get fucked.

Haha. Whatever you say CK.

 

[Jaguar]

Odd. I thought he liked Romney.

I went to the Duval RPOF headquarters and phone banked for Romney for a couple of hours, and got asked to go to the State wide Young Republicans Convention in West Palm this weekend.

I guess the love affair ended . . .

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

It will definitely take a permanent hit. I know a lot of people still laid off because of restrictions, but eventually I think they will be able to get back to work. I think the virus will have a similar effect on businesses as people- killing off the weak ones who were close to folding anyhow. Still, I think there will be a large jump in employment the next time we get a jobs report, though it might be a lagging indicator that takes a little while. A lot seem to be holding out for signs of an impending return to normalcy, which we are beginning to see on the horizon.

I wouldn't expect a return to normalcy. This is basically going to be the new 9/11. Things will be different after this.

 

[Stigmata]

Mitt Romney can get fucked.

Sheesh. You guys take that whole dissention from the party consensus thingy pretty seriously.

 

[Maou]

You can't blame the current bad economy and unemployment on Trump lol. The entire nation did that willingly to combat Covid. Its gonna bounce back up real fucking fast once lockdowns are over in places like California. That will happen before November. Right now I am waiting the the next "story" that will overshadow Covid in terms of money for the media. Thats when things will begin to go back to normal.

 

[Maou]

Ok, so you’d give Trump maybe a 55-60% shot then. I’d take those odds, because at this point I’m closer to 50/50...too much can change between now and the election so I’m not sure of anything. And some fundamental aspects of the 2020 election are still in play, like vote-by-Mail.

But I think if the election were held today Trump would lose...I’d put his chances at maybe 20%. Recent polling in Florida and Arizona, for instance, don’t paint a rosey picture for him. As much as people like to shit on the 2016 polls, they weren’t that far off the mark.



Do you still like Mitt Romney? Would you prefer him to Trump?

Trump had a 3% chance of winning against Clinton in 2016. 538 is full of shit, and you know it. They sample like ass, and manipulate the numbers to give the impression their side is winning. Rueters is much more fair.

Also no one liked Romney, and only voted for him because he got the nomination.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Trump had a 3% chance of winning against Clinton in 2016. 538 is full of shit, and you know it. They sample like ass, and manipulate the numbers to give the impression their side is winning. Rueters is much more fair.
.

He didn't have a 3% chance of winning the eve of the election. It was more like 33% (which aren't bad odds at all). This is in line with what I'm saying about the models being useful, but only relatively close to the election. I'm thinking within two weeks at the most.

 

[Jonny]

Trump had a 3% chance of winning against Clinton in 2016. 538 is full of shit, and you know it. They sample like ass, and manipulate the numbers to give the impression their side is winning. Rueters is much more fair.

Also no one liked Romney, and only voted for him because he got the nomination.

No, I don’t know it. In fact, I think they’re one of the most reputable poll aggregators out there.

Nate Silver got a lot of shit in 2016 for giving Trump such a high chance of winning. I think your bias and ignorance prevents you from seeing that.

I’ll give you a few examples, but I could give more...

Nate Silver's model gives Trump an unusually high chance of winning. Could he be right? - Vox

Nate Silver Is Unskewing Polls -- All Of Them -- In Trump's Direction | HuffPost