Coronavirus

[Virtual ghost]

Worldometer

We are gating close to the record day globally.

 

[JAVO]

Michigan governor Whitmer's own Chief Operating Officer Trish Foster doesn't follow Whitmer's COVID travel guidelines, ignores masking and social distancing.

Michigan Whitmer's Aide Ignores Own Travel Ban Warnings for Florida Spring Break


Do as I say, not as I do.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro blasts COVID probe

 

[Virtual ghost]

COVID pandemic is 'a long way' from over, WHO says

 

[Virtual ghost]

India: +184 600

I don't even want to think what would be in the case that testing is on the level.

 

[Mole]

It's amazing, all these school children traveling all over the country for Spring Break, spreading the virus.

 

[JAVO]

Wait, was it two weeks to slow the spread, or two years?

 

[Red Herring]

Wait, was it two weeks to slow the spread, or two years?

Two weeks is the duration between the introduction of any change in behavior and the effects of that change becoming visible in the official infection numbers. So, in a perfect world, where everybody on the planet isolates completely and absolutely follows all the recommendations, where all work, all economic activity, even essentials were dropped, two weeks.

In a world where many act as if this doesn't apply to them, where there are regions where masks and distancing aren't even compulsory, who knows?

Things seem to go well in places that vaccinate a lot. Other places that still don't take this seriously have had considerable excess deaths (+18% deaths in the USA, IIRC and places like Brazil are a desaster) and likely will draw this out for the entire planet.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Two weeks is the duration between the introduction of any change in behavior and the effects of that change becoming visible in the official infection numbers. So, in a perfect world, where everybody on the planet isolates completely and absolutely follows all the recommendations, where all work, all economic activity, even essentials were dropped, two weeks.

In a world where many act as if this doesn't apply to them, where there are regions where masks and distancing aren't even compulsory, who knows?

Things seem to go well in places that vaccinate a lot. Other places that still don't take this seriously have had considerable excess deaths (+18% deaths in the USA, IIRC and places like Brazil are a desaster) and likely will draw this out for the entire planet.

Actually it is even more complicated than this. There are countries that vaccinated a lot but they simply stopped, at one point. What is probably mostly because the remaining part of the population doesn't want to get a vaccine. When you watch on google vaccinations data Israel quickly came to something like 55% of the population and stopped. What means that there will be no end in sight. Since 55% just isn't enough to end this whole show. You need at least 75%, good weather and masks/distancing to truly brake the chain of infection to zero. Since half or third of none vaccinated people is more than enough to keep this pandemic running for years. Especially since natural immunity starts to fade with time (same as vaccine effect). Plus the longer this all lasts the higher are chances that we get variants that are resistant to vaccines and then the game will be in reset.



Plus the virus is doing all kinds of things: from blood cloths, severe and permanent lung damage, damage to various organs ... etc. Therefore if you don't take the vaccine that is far far away from playing it safe. Especially since there is enough sick people that you can encounter the virus just about everywhere. While in the big picture if the vaccine effort fails globally the global economy will collapse under 280 Trillion $ debt that should be the sum of all debt in world. The number is just too great that you can have easy fix that is equal across the world. I mean if just one part of the world falls apart completely that will cause serious chain reactions and create domino effect. Therefore if vaccination effort fails you can say goodbye to the life as you knew, since the whole system will go off the cliff (especially since most countries can't do a proper lockdown due to infrastructure, money, culture or whatever). However you can't have the system on life support for a decade. While letting the virus run rampant also visibly depresses consumer spending and crashes the healthcare system. What also results in things going off the cliff in hysteria. Therefore there is no real way out but vaccines in combination with other counter-measures.


This isn't pretty but that is how this works.

 

[Virtual ghost]

EU, India seek closer ties to fight coronavirus pandemic

Delhi sought the EU's support on Tuesday for a short-term waiver of an intellectual property rights agreement to facilitate accessibility to COVID-related products.

The Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights Agreement (TRIPS) was drafted by the World Trade Organization (WTO) to regulate licensing of COVID-related components.

Amid a surge in new coronavirus variants, India and South Africa have recently pushed for the waiver, but wealthy countries have resisted the idea.

Delhi and Johannesburg have said the waiver could allow drugmakers in developing countries to start producing effective vaccines sooner.

This is basically why thus far we have vaccinated only 6% of the world with first dose and 2.5% with second dose. What means that this has to speed up or the show will last for years and create various mutations in the process (that will quickly spread around). In other words I doubt that the system globally can hold that long this level of mess.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Worldometer


Look as another bad day globally.

 

[JAVO]

Two weeks is the duration between the introduction of any change in behavior and the effects of that change becoming visible in the official infection numbers. So, in a perfect world, where everybody on the planet isolates completely and absolutely follows all the recommendations, where all work, all economic activity, even essentials were dropped, two weeks.

In a world where many act as if this doesn't apply to them, where there are regions where masks and distancing aren't even compulsory, who knows?

So the politicians and public health leaders were naive enough to think that we live in a perfect world? Or maybe they told us something different than what was actually planned to avoid inciting resistance?

They were and still are extreme measures for something they probably knew would become endemic just based on the fact that it's a highly contagious (and aerosol-spreading), mutating coronavirus.

Doctors: Covid will become endemic and people need to deal with it

Things seem to go well in places that vaccinate a lot. Other places that still don't take this seriously have had considerable excess deaths (+18% deaths in the USA, IIRC and places like Brazil are a desaster) and likely will draw this out for the entire planet.

I'm not sure about that. I only did a quick search, but I didn't see any data comparing vaccination rates and death rates. I did see that the current US vaccination rate is around 40%, which is higher than many countries.

 

[JAVO]

Plus the virus is doing all kinds of things: from blood cloths, severe and permanent lung damage, damage to various organs ... etc. Therefore if you don't take the vaccine that is far far away from playing it safe. Especially since there is enough sick people that you can encounter the virus just about everywhere. While in the big picture if the vaccine effort fails globally the global economy will collapse under 280 Trillion $ debt that should be the sum of all debt in world. The number is just too great that you can have easy fix that is equal across the world. I mean if just one part of the world falls apart completely that will cause serious chain reactions and create domino effect. Therefore if vaccination effort fails you can say goodbye to the life as you knew, since the whole system will go off the cliff (especially since most countries can't do a proper lockdown due to infrastructure, money, culture or whatever). However you can't have the system on life support for a decade. While letting the virus run rampant also visibly depresses consumer spending and crashes the healthcare system. What also results in things going off the cliff in hysteria. Therefore there is no real way out but vaccines in combination with other counter-measures.


This isn't pretty but that is how this works.

This is overstated. Most people range from asymptomatic to an annoying cold or flu. That economic doomsday scenario, if it were to happen, would be caused mostly be government (over)reaction.

What is your definition of vaccine effort failure?

 

[Virtual ghost]

This is overstated. Most people range from asymptomatic to an annoying cold or flu. That economic doomsday scenario, if it were to happen, would be caused mostly be government (over)reaction.

What is your definition of vaccine effort failure?

First, here we are talking about governments (about 200 of them), not the government. Where I live the government is providing people in jeopardized sectors with stimulus every month. Plus no one lost it's heath insurance since it is a human right for generations. What means that the lockdown was done properly and people stayed at home since their needs were met. What in the end killed of the pandemic completely last year. However quite a number of countries mishandled the problem and therefore the pandemic resumed it's course globally (and again it came in just as the last time, even if we solved the problem for the moment). Therefore I just don't agree that the government is the fundamental problem here. As I said a number of times before: for me what US has doesn't really qualify as the government.



Plus you are taking oversimplistic view here. First, the pandemic didn't kill huge parts of elderly population because they were protected and isolated for the most part. However as they aren't going out from the house much and spending money normally that is huge economic problem that can't be "the new normal". Not to mention that living indoors isn't much of a life. Plus many businesses like bars, restaurants, fun parks, hotels, airlines and similar to that will be lowered bellow their profitable levels if the pandemic remains permanent. What is huge problem in a number of countries and it could easily push overdebt global economy over the edge in the domino effect (just for the record: the US stands on the top of global economy and therefore if that crashes ....). Another problem and the wildcard are mutations: which are getting more and more likely as the more people is infected. However they can quickly turn all of this into even deadlier disease. While even now the death rate is about 10% to 15% if the healthcare gets completely overloaded or it is out of reach. What surely happens if the economy works properly and in sustainable way, after all it can't stay on life support forever. Therefore the only way out are vaccines, since in most countries there is no money or general conditions for proper lockdown.



Vaccine failure:

The world isn't generally vaccinated by late 2022
Constant or strong mutations completely brake the global vaccination effort
Less than 70% of the people aren't vaccinated in clear majority of the countries

 

[Virtual ghost]

Here are some examples of countries where vaccination is quite strong:


Worldometer UK

Worldometer Israel



I mean you can also do this with proper lockdown but the virus will again quickly come from abroad just as it did the first time. Since lockdown solution would require that every country does the same at the same time, what isn't realistic. Although the first lockdown had to be done in order to set up a mass mask production, since the demand skyrocketed (the same goes for other COVID related products).

What in the end leaves you with the vaccines as the only way out of this (and this madness has to end, the world can't live or function like this). In other words vaccines have the effect that is much more permanent than the lockdown. However you have to make global vaccination as fast as possible, since mutations can quickly reset the game if you are not careful (allowing a mass of people to get in contact with the virus is included since that rises the odds of mutations).






Worldometer India

On the other hand India is in problems. Plus with this lousy testing it is possible that they are getting over million infections per day at this point. This is exactly why they are pushing for removal of "copyright" on vaccines. Since at this rate they wouldn't vaccinate their population of 1 380 million people in years (plus by that time the vaccine effect will probably fade). While on the other hand if the country of this size starts to socially crack the whole world will feel it heavily.


Brazil's Supreme Court greenlights probe into Bolsonaro's COVID-19 response

While in Brazil there is also drama. What is one more huge country that could socially brake if the pandemic isn't solved soon. I mean death rate of COVID is 1.5% only if you have first world healthcare that is available and decent infrastructure. While if you don't the death rate can quickly rise above that level. Not to mention that 10-20% of infected has permanent consequences, that will probably have huge economic and social costs on the long run.

 

[Virtual ghost]

World +812 000.


At this rate the global daily record will fall next week. Mutations are getting ugly and only 6% of the world got the first doze thus far.
While national reserves are drained all over the world map.

 

[Virtual ghost]

April 15th: World +845 200


What is just 200 people less than the all time daily record in early January.
Plus as the fast spreading mutations are spreading across the third world in reality we are currently almost surely in the new record zone. Just if it isn't detected that doesn't mean that it is not there.

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

India: +260 000


At current rate they will even overtake the daily record among all countries: which is held by US (309 000 in a day).
Although with this weak testing they are probably already far over that line.

 

[Mole]

I was vaccinated a couple of days ago.

The purpose of the vaccination is to awaken our immune response to the virus.

The vaccination awoke my immune response to such a degree I was in distress for a couple of hours. However my immune system has settled down, and although I can tell something has changed, I am no longer in distress, and feel OK.

And it is good to see the vaccination doing its job with my immune response. This is not a trivial vaccination.