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Random Politics Thread

Kephalos

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McGinnis, John O., and Michael B. Rappaport. "The Judicial Filibuster, the Median Senator, and the Countermajoritarian Difficulty." The Supreme Court Review 2005, no. 1 (2005): 257-305.
Abstract: In this essay, we explore the effects of the application of the filibuster to judicial confirmations. We conclude that the judicial filibuster has fundamental implications for both the composition of the courts and nature of constitutional law. If employed, the filibuster will change the kind of judges who are confirmed and so over time reshape the Supreme Court itself. We argue that the filibuster will lead to more moderate judges. With the help of spatial models from the political science literature, we contend that supermajority confirmation rules, of which the filibuster rule is an example, will tend to make justices more moderate, where moderate means having a jurisprudential view closer to the view held by the median Senator. We thus identify an apparent paradox that a supermajority rule for judicial confirmation actually furthers the views of the legislative majority. We also analyze the Filibuster Deal, an agreement of 14 moderate Senators designed to preserve the filibuster. We contend that the deal furthered the political self-interest of this group, because the filibuster generates the appointment of the moderate judges that these Senators support. We also make predictions about how the key terms in the deal will be interpreted. Our argument that the filibuster rule generates more moderate judicial appointments also suggests that the rule will temper the countermajoritarian difficulty - the problem created by an unelected judiciary invalidating the decisions of the popularly elected branches. We maintain that a supermajority confirmation rule that generates appointments that accord with the median senator's view is also more likely to produce judges who act based on a majority of the public's view of judicial review. In this way, judicial review would be more likely to impose the limitations on popular government that a majority of the people desire. In developing this argument, we unpack the countermajoritarian difficulty into three components - jurisprudential, temporal, and confirmational. Finally, we use our framework to explicate other important features of the confirmation process. We show that the presence of a filibuster rule will lead the President to select more stealth nominees, but that such nominees will still tend to be more moderate than those nominated under majority confirmation rules. We also show that whether a filibuster occurs will depend on a variety of factors; that nominees for the court of appeals are more likely to be filibustered than the Supreme Court nominees; that filibusters are more likely toward the end of the President's term; and that the decision whether to filibuster a nominee will depend on expectations about future nominees and the type of reputation the Senate minority wants to develop.
"I really do believe that I have set the Senate so when I leave, we’re going to be able to get judges done with a majority. It takes only a simple majority anymore (sic). And, it’s clear to me that if the Republicans try to filibuster another circuit court judge, but especially a Supreme Court justice, I’ve told ’em how and I’ve done it, not just talking about it. I did it in changing the rules of the Senate." Harry M. Reid (1939-2021), former Senate Majority Leader (109th-114th Congresses).
 

Kephalos

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Donald Trump’s shadow looms over Republican debate he plans to skip (Financial Times): Former US leader and his legal problems set to upstage primetime GOP event.
Trump’s absence from the first Republican primary debate sets the stage for a two-hour brawl on Wednesday night between the remaining candidates — one that political operatives say could strengthen the hand of the former president, as the alternatives turn on each other rather than attack the frontrunner. It also tees up a possible split-screen scenario, where Republican hopefuls tiptoe around criticising the former president while he attacks them in a separate broadcast interview or public appearance.
 

SensEye

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Someone is really pushing hard the Vivek guy. This scale of attention doesn't happen on it's own.
I've heard him described as Trump 2.0.

He strikes me as a real psycho (as in - zero moral compass whatsoever). In this sense, wealthy corporate backers would find him appealing. He'd lower taxes on the rich, turf environmental laws, turf labor protection regulations, etc. etc. He has already said he would end all support to Ukraine if elected. Although I could see him reversing course here if his backers are from the military industrial complex. Big money in the war business. He's a religious wacko too, so the fundamentalist crowd might also be backing him.

I find it somewhat amusing, in a tragic way, that the two leading alternatives to Trump are the worst of the worst, DeSantis and Ramaswamy.

Between this Republican clown show and the hapless Biden/Harris ticket, on wonders where has everyone's common sense gone?
 

Virtual ghost

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I've heard him described as Trump 2.0.

He strikes me as a real psycho (as in - zero moral compass whatsoever). In this sense, wealthy corporate backers would find him appealing. He'd lower taxes on the rich, turf environmental laws, turf labor protection regulations, etc. etc. He has already said he would end all support to Ukraine if elected. Although I could see him reversing course here if his backers are from the military industrial complex. Big money in the war business. He's a religious wacko too, so the fundamentalist crowd might also be backing him.

I find it somewhat amusing, in a tragic way, that the two leading alternatives to Trump are the worst of the worst, DeSantis and Ramaswamy.

Between this Republican clown show and the hapless Biden/Harris ticket, on wonders where has everyone's common sense gone?

The truth seems to be that in US mentally ill strategies are totally legit (and often legal). Therefore if the public doesn't know for anything better they will play this game. Plus they don't have multi-party system that provides various options. The media are offering you "this guy" or "that guy" and that is basically it. So you either play the game or you just stay home.
 

DiscoBiscuit

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1692850588986.png
 

Virtual ghost

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BRICS group invites 6 new members to join next year

To me it is kinda fascinating that this summit is going basically "unnoticed" in most of US media. I mean this is kinda the talk of new world order (although not the one that conspiracy theorists had in mind). I mean if it really happens that Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran and Egypt join BRICS on next January 1th that basically means that China took over the Middle east. Therefore when the ties deepen enough the Petrodollar can be torpedoed. What would basically be the end of US global dominance. Not to mention that in Ethiopia's capital is the HQ of the African union where all countries of the continent have seat at the table. Plus Argentina is coming in. What in combination with Brazil that is already in the block and countries like Venezuela basically means that there will be a domination in South America. It is just 6 countries joining but 6 ones that really matter. Plus the list of countries that want to join is long and consists of dozens of countries. However they can't take all of that at once. So at this point they only took 6 more important ones. But with time they will probably bring in more of them.


So as I said in this thread a few days ago: you guys just don't have the time for petty partisan politics anymore. So ether you will manage to patch the country and fight or this is basically going to be all she wrote. Since loss of influence basically means collapsing under the debts that aren't small. Especially since all of this means that the good old money printing will not be effective option. In a way the whole drama around Trump is convenient smoke screen, so that you don't have to talk about real problems that are evidently starting to knock at the door.
 

Totenkindly

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The Cat

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No plan for the environment. Nothing but flash in the pan talking points and culture war bullshit. Talk about DOA.
 

ceecee

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No plan for the environment. Nothing but flash in the pan talking points and culture war bullshit. Talk about DOA.
This is what happens when politics is treated as entertainment rather than the life and death issue that it is.
 

SensEye

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Ramaswamy sure lived up to his Trump 2.0 billing. I can see him as a very likely candidate for Trump's running mate assuming Trump delays his legal problems long enough to go into the general (which I think is likely). Also assuming racism doesn't factor in a negative way (which it might under the covers). Imagine those two in the oval office. Yikes!

I'll have to put my wishful thinking eggs into the Nikki Haley basket as best alternative to Trump. The two nobodies on the edges seemed decent and might have some potential as reasonable leaders, but I figure they won't be around much longer.
 
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