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Thread: Global Turmoil

  1. #1
    Digital ambition Virtual ghost's Avatar
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    Default Global Turmoil

    I had threads like this one here before and I think we need this here, especially since I am getting impression that we are missing the elephant in the room. However if I would bring this up in other threads I would just be nuking the threads. So this should just be a general thread for the topic of global expansion of totalitarianism, wars, mass human right abuses and similar topics.



    To be honest I find the whole debate in the primaries and generally in the west to be short sighted since in my book they don't really grasp what is really going on in various parts. In my book global situation is far worse for the English speaking world than you can conclude from the general discourse. Here are some examples that are no more than a few weeks old. This is plenty to share so I will add short comments next to the links.




    US removes Turkey from F-35 program after S-400 fiasco
    This is really big one since the Turkey passed the line openly despite warnings, plus since they are getting so close to the Russians it is obvious that they have given them some NATO data. Also they are building oil pipelines in order to shift towards Russian energy.


    Turkey Marks Failed Coup’s Third Anniversary Across Balkans
    Cheap propaganda but it will do what it was meant to do.





    Hungary defends decision to allow transit of Russian military shipment
    Another nato country doing Russia favors. Not to mention they are hiding escaped pro Russian Macedonian ex PM.


    Hungary and Poland Tighten Grip on ‘National Narratives’
    Also there is pretty clear move towards big government.


    Just 37 percent of Germans see UK as trustworthy partner, poll says
    What is even more brutal is that towards this only 19% have such opinion about USA.





    Kosovo Politicians Voice Sympathy After ‘War Crimes Suspect’ PM Resigns
    Kosovo’s ambassador to Washington, Vlora Citaku, expressed outrage that Haradinaj would be questioned as a suspect.

    This was a shock indeed for the country and something totally unexpected, however now 20 years later someone got the idea and this going through. This will have consequences and since the Kosovo's main telecom is in serious problems it should be monitored what will Russia and China do. If they get the telecom from the government that marks clear shifts.


    Albania MPs Propose Ban on Studying WWII Communist Crimes
    Meanwhile in mainland Albania ....





    Pranked North Macedonia PM Defends His Gullibility
    This is the guy that should carry Macedonia through thorns and bushes to EU but Russians made him look like an idiot.


    Dodik Urges Bosnian Serbs to Block Croatia Lawsuit
    This is pure theater of absurd. The head of Bosnian Serbs is saving the Croatia from international lawsuits. However the catch is simple: China is building the mentioned bridge and it obviously told him to block "this circus".


    Alleged Bulgaria Tax Data Hacker Says He’ll Never Be Caught
    Maybe he is showing off but maybe he is indeed Russian.


    Croatia to Transform Tito’s Iconic Yacht into Museum
    This looks like a nice story about history but the fact is that Yugo-nostalgia is all over the country. Plus this is being done by Yugo-nostalgic political forces. Soon the county may even elect a person that starts rallies with "Hello Comrades" and even did some subtle attacks on the Euro on TV. While the two main daughters of the communist party have pushed third parties to the edge of relevance. However that is also hardly a tragedy, since at this point those are mostly just opportunists and populists.

    Or how that looks in numbers
    Poll


    Macron Dampens Serbia’s Hopes of Rapid EU Membership
    What opens the question why should Serbia that is Putinist style dictatorship make any changes to what they are doing. Since people at the top have to hunt their own ilk to boost democracy and transparency and now they have no reason to do anything. Especially since Russia and China are providing plenty of benefits.

    Montenegro Supreme Court Accused of Undermining Judiciary
    But let's be real, the same guy leads the show/country for decades and he started career in the past system. What else to expect?

    UK’s Shrinking Role in Balkans Will Vanish Under Johnson
    Logical consequence of everything that is going on.

    Italy probes ties between Salvini's Lega party and Russia
    Interesting but not shocking if we consider his threats to EU from business meeting in Russia.

    Dodon's Ally Becomes Moldova’s New Anti-Graft Chief
    Let's just say that the person's name is "Ruslan".

    Ukraine's anti-corruption campaign targets Klitschko and Poroshenko
    This is fishy to the core. Newly elected president that was a TV comedian is now going after the most anti-russian politicians in Ukraine.







    Meanwhile on the other side of the globe:


    China warns Hong Kong protesters of severe repercussions
    I don't know how many of you are watching this drama but it seem that China is getting bored with autonomy of the Hong Kong and wants to fully assimilate it.


    North Korea launches two 'projectiles' into the sea
    They are launching continuously at this point and it seems they aren't going to stop. This is far from over as a story.


    Cambodia buys more arms from China
    Over the last few years China managed to completely remake dictatorship in Cambodia. It is indeed good place for a military base.





    So it is more than obvious that the West has serious problem in the field about which not much is being said. Plus there is plenty of what I didn't even touch.
    In other words it is obvious that Russia and China are on the offensive and the west has no real game going.

  2. #2
    werewolf of london Julius_Van_Der_Beak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Virtual ghost View Post
    So it is more than obvious that the West has serious problem in the field about which not much is being said. Plus there is plenty of what I didn't even touch.
    In other words it is obvious that Russia and China are on the offensive and the west has no real game going.
    America don't need game. We're the freedomest country ever. That's enough.

    A path is made by walking on it.

    -Zhuangzi



  3. #3
    Digital ambition Virtual ghost's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Julius_Van_Der_Beak View Post
    America don't need game. We're the freedomest country ever. That's enough.


    I agree, at the end of the day you can only laugh at this. For me to see how things are going I just have to go to the super market: here the big Coca-Cola costs something like 2$ and Russian owned counterpart that has the same quality and quality is something like 1.15$ (and these are pure prices without any sales or anything). Also I went to European owned furniture shop and most of the stuff there is "Made in China".


    So I made my peace with this since it is becoming crystally clear how all of this is going to end (at least in my part of the world)
    There are even days when I wonder would I be a villain if I simply accept or embrace things for what they are.

  4. #4
    Senior Member tinker683's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Virtual ghost View Post
    So it is more than obvious that the West has serious problem in the field about which not much is being said. Plus there is plenty of what I didn't even touch.
    In other words it is obvious that Russia and China are on the offensive and the west has no real game going.
    Sure we do! Our President has repeatedly told us that Russia that he's best buds with Putin and Kim Jong Un! He told me on Twitter and everything!

    As a more serious response: Thank you for putting this thread together, it's very informative.
    "The man who is swimming against the stream knows the strength of it."
    ― Woodrow Wilson
    Likes Luminous liked this post

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    Senior Member raskol's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Virtual ghost View Post
    In my book global situation is far worse for the English speaking world than you can conclude from the general discourse.
    It's an impressive list of grievances, but I have a few criticisms to share. Greece and Turkey have always been basket cases in the Western alliance, suffering from either communist or sectarian insurgencies threatening either military's stronghold--not to mention fighting each other and still dividing Cyprus between them. Greece also betrayed NATO during the Yugoslav wars, when it assisted Russia and Serbia to maintain the ongoing genocide of Bosnians. The Clinton administration successfully blocked the flow of information at the time, and now we act as though it never happened.

    Then again, the reason we can see this kind of nonsense go on in Europe--whether it is the tinfoil in Hungary, Poland, or Macedonia--is because it ultimately doesn't matter. The supply chain remains intact and the Visegrad group is acting jointly to counter Russian power projection in the Intermarium.

    The core problem, however, is that America's cost to uphold its global trade imperium is becoming unsustainable, especially as global economic growth is plateauing while technologically advanced hardware requires increased funding. Not only is the U.S. military overseeing the safety of goods transported across the oceans and in airspace, but simultaneously every tracking device and GPS satellite is funded by the American taxpayer. The rest of the world consists of free-riders leaching off of the structure America built during the Cold War, and there will come a time when responsibilities are either shared or the trade imperium collapses.

    Put differently, America needs to downsize its global presence so as not to collapse under its own weight, but I don't believe it is possible to present this approach in a debate format. By contrast, the democratic process--which is now nothing more than a populist free-for-all--is likely to present a path toward unsustainable spending in a future of zero growth, making the collapse inevitable.

  6. #6
    Digital ambition Virtual ghost's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by raskol View Post
    It's an impressive list of grievances, but I have a few criticisms to share. Greece and Turkey have always been basket cases in the Western alliance, suffering from either communist or sectarian insurgencies threatening either military's stronghold--not to mention fighting each other and still dividing Cyprus between them. Greece also betrayed NATO during the Yugoslav wars, when it assisted Russia and Serbia to maintain the ongoing genocide of Bosnians. The Clinton administration successfully blocked the flow of information at the time, and now we act as though it never happened.
    True, but as you see Turkey is gone and Greece is selling out to China. Just as the rest of the Balkans.


    Then again, the reason we can see this kind of nonsense go on in Europe--whether it is the tinfoil in Hungary, Poland, or Macedonia--is because it ultimately doesn't matter. The supply chain remains intact and the Visegrad group is acting jointly to counter Russian power projection in the Intermarium.

    Yeah I see how they hold, they are passing Russian military shipment and giving exile to pro Russian politicians.


    US angered by Hungary's decision to extradite arms dealers to Russia

    Macedonian ex-PM escapes jail term, flees to Hungary

    Gruevski was pure authoritarian and they gave him asylum. Even today his VMRO-DPMNE blocks and slows Macedonian path towards EU and NATO since he is pro-russian politician. While this scary government that is after him is led by the already mentioned pranked PM from the first post. Russians pranked him exactly since they are going after their man.


    Russia's proposed TurkStream 2 pipeline sparks Bulgaria, EU energy worries

    Chinese Seal Major Romanian Energy Acquisition




    Not to mention that China established a new trading block that is heating up with all ex communist countries in ex Eastern block, do some research on that. Or who is building new nuclear power plants in the region.




    If the wall is safe why Russians took over a number of big companies in my country or why we have Russian magazines at kiosks (which are also Russian at this point)
    Etc. etc. I made endless post on the topic since I am from this part of the world and the point of my post is exactly that you no longer have a solid wall at the eastern border of NATO. It is time to update the map.



    The core problem, however, is that America's cost to uphold its global trade imperium is becoming unsustainable, especially as global economic growth is plateauing while technologically advanced hardware requires increased funding. Not only is the U.S. military overseeing the safety of goods transported across the oceans and in airspace, but simultaneously every tracking device and GPS satellite is funded by the American taxpayer. The rest of the world consists of free-riders leaching off of the structure America built during the Cold War, and there will come a time when responsibilities are either shared or the trade imperium collapses.
    Well, EU recently pushed it's own Galileo system as an alternative to GPS. Russians have their own system as well, as well as someone else perhaps.


    Put differently, America needs to downsize its global presence so as not to collapse under its own weight, but I don't believe it is possible to present this approach in a debate format. By contrast, the democratic process--which is now nothing more than a populist free-for-all--is likely to present a path toward unsustainable spending in a future of zero growth, making the collapse inevitable.
    Is this the only thing America knows as genuine problem solving ? Isolationism ?

    If you do that US is toast for sure. Since you will collapse under you own debts, since you will have debts of a superpower without such powers and all the vacuum you leave Russia and China will very quickly fill. The problem isn't in American influence and it's size, the problem is the quality of that influence. Illegal wars, climate change denial, bad healthcare and toxic food just don't impress people. Your only hope is to fully embrace your allies and influences and try to make a plan how to dig yourself out of this with them. What will surely requite rethinking in both manufacture policy and paradigms as well as education. Since if you just trade with goods other made you are basically just a middle man that no one needs in the end.

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    Digital ambition Virtual ghost's Avatar
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    PM’s Dual Role as Speaker Draws Criticism in Bosnia

    Because ... why not ?


    Asian Workers Change Urban Face of Romania

    This is also "interesting" concept, corrupt ex-communist country that is mostly ruled by ex or covered up communists is importing cheap workforce from communist country, so that they repair communist era infrastructure.


    These trends are just going and going and there is no end in sight. The most bizarre element is that all of this is mostly going through globalization and international trade, without that there is no way Russia and China would be able to pile up so much influence, which they use as leverage or disruption in the end.

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    werewolf of london Julius_Van_Der_Beak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Virtual ghost View Post
    PM’s Dual Role as Speaker Draws Criticism in Bosnia

    Because ... why not ?


    Asian Workers Change Urban Face of Romania

    This is also "interesting" concept, corrupt ex-communist country that is mostly ruled by ex or covered up communists is importing cheap workforce from communist country, so that they repair communist era infrastructure.


    These trends are just going and going and there is no end in sight. The most bizarre element is that all of this is mostly going through globalization and international trade, without that there is no way Russia and China would be able to pile up so much influence, which they use as leverage or disruption in the end.
    free market good because america freedom so freedom benefit america
    A path is made by walking on it.

    -Zhuangzi



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    werewolf of london Julius_Van_Der_Beak's Avatar
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    I joke but this is really the kind of discord we have. I hear adults, some of them supposedly well-educated, express exactly these sentiments if in less moronic language all the time.

    Oh, and the funniest thing is that these are the people thought of as the "sensible" hard-nosed pragmatists.
    A path is made by walking on it.

    -Zhuangzi



  10. #10
    Digital ambition Virtual ghost's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Julius_Van_Der_Beak View Post
    I joke but this is really the kind of discord we have. I hear adults, some of them supposedly well-educated, express exactly these sentiments if in less moronic language all the time.

    Oh, and the funniest thing is that these are the people thought of as the "sensible" hard-nosed pragmatists.

    I am aware of the stereotype/joke. The problem is that basic premise was that Communism and similar ideologies are dead and now we can all lift all borders and we can all trade with each other however we want. So west privatized and divided it's economy into smaller systems that are generally independent from one another. However East used the opportunities for a rebound and now the biggest integrated systems in the world are undemocratic governments that are just sucking in everything they can find.


    For example state owned company that is part of big government can have very easy time taking all the market. Private company in order to live needs profit, however public company can get temporary government support to such degree that they can lower the prices into nothing and instantly kill the competition. Therefore when all of that dies off you take over the whole market and then quickly refill all the money that government provided and technological complexity makes sure that some new competition can't emerge over night. Plus now you have the resources to repeat the cycle somewhere else. Also in the case you have enough tanks and nukes you can bend trading rules if someone asks some questions.



    Actually when this goes through government it is easy to make more complex deals. Usually if private company is doing business they can only provide what is their core business, while with the government that owns business this can get more complex very easily. For example: if you start buying out software we will give you 25% discount on all food purchases, also we will convince xy country to open the market for your furniture and oil and if all that goes well we will reinvest money we got from the deal with them into your tourism industry. While the private company will probably struggle with this kind of trade since it just can't provide so many offers and combinations. Especially since government and business combo allows you to be both a business person and a lawmaker at the same time, what opens a million ways how to destroy competition. From industrial standards to hiring or forgiving taxes to your companies ... etc. Plus you can justify monopoly with pure nationalism or even redistribute profits through some welfare system to the people, as some sort of dividend for effort and support.


    With this you can even cheat what is considered "economic certainty": It is well known that free minded people don't like taxes but most of them like stuff gambling. Therefore if you open state owned gambling or lottery the people will play but instead to the individuals the money will go to the government for the healthcare, education, infrastructure or tax cuts, since on average house always wins.



    However this isn't really the economics you learn in typical western business schools.

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