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Thread: Global Turmoil

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    Quote Originally Posted by Virtual ghost View Post
    Why post-Merkel Germany will change its tune on China


    What is your take on this ? Is this trend real ?
    Especially the part that the Greens are the biggest anti-China hawks in the country?
    Let's do this step by step:
    1. I was about to post here anyway because I recently saw a part of the traditional "summer interview" with Markus Söder, the current governor of Bavaria, and while a year is a long time in politics and much can change I would be willing to bet money that the next chancelor will be Söder. I would never vote for him but while he started his career as a young ambitious populist he has sort of taken a u-turn a while ago and now tries to be all statesmanlike. Bavaria is and always has been governed by the CSU (which is socially conservative and pro-business but also pro-big-government and tries to present themselves as the "Bavaria party" that had a little bit for everyone like Mexico's PRI if that means something to American readers). When the AfD was spreading fear about a supposed islamization of Europe, Söder declared that all official government buildings were to have a crucifix at the entry (Bavaria, to my knowledge, is also the only state with cruicifixes in schools).When climate change became the number one topic last year Söder grasped the opportunuty and presented himself as a doer and tough and proactive on climate change. When the pandemic hit he again presented himself as a doer and tough on fighting the virs spread. So while he is a conservative he is above all a man with an instinct for what is popular or necessary at the time. He can also do dignified, statesmanlike and reasonable if that is what the situation calls for. He currently has little political competition, so as I said I would bet my money on him becoming the next chancelor, likely in a coalition wth the Greens.

    2. While I am a supporter of the Greens I had to google their position on China, so it's not like this is a very important topic to them that they are vocal about. in fact I couldn't find any current public statements. What I did find was a 4 year old declaration saying that China is our partner and global problems can only be solved WITH China. And a post from last year about the prosecution of the Uighurs calling on the government to force German businesses to be tougher on human rights abuses in their factories in China. None of that sounds very hawkinsh to me. The Greens generally aren't very hawkish on anything. They tend to be in favor of international cooperation on basically all issues. Human rights are a cornerstone of their political identity but they have become quite pragmatic over the years. My state, Baden-Württemberg, has a Green governor. Since the automotive industry is a mayor industry here with a lot of jobs in the balance, especially if you include all the suppliers, he is known as pretty pro-automotive even though that isn't the party line.

    3. A government of CDU/CSU and Greens under a chancelor Söder seems very likely to me. The Greens having enough influence to change the country's position on China, not so much. It is too much of a complex multifaceted issue.

    4. If the EU should get its sh*t together and work on a common foreign and defense policy worthy of its name I could see a more confrontational approach to China in the mid-to-long run.
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    Complex paradigm Virtual ghost's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Red Herring View Post
    Let's do this step by step:
    1. I was about to post here anyway because I recently saw a part of the traditional "summer interview" with Markus Söder, the current governor of Bavaria, and while a year is a long time in politics and much can change I would be willing to bet money that the next chancelor will be Söder. I would never vote for him but while he started his career as a young ambitious populist he has sort of taken a u-turn a while ago and now tries to be all statesmanlike. Bavaria is and always has been governed by the CSU (which is socially conservative and pro-business but also pro-big-government and tries to present themselves as the "Bavaria party" that had a little bit for everyone like Mexico's PRI if that means something to American readers). When the AfD was spreading fear about a supposed islamization of Europe, Söder declared that all official government buildings were to have a crucifix at the entry (Bavaria, to my knowledge, is also the only state with cruicifixes in schools).When climate change became the number one topic last year Söder grasped the opportunuty and presented himself as a doer and tough and proactive on climate change. When the pandemic hit he again presented himself as a doer and tough on fighting the virs spread. So while he is a conservative he is above all a man with an instinct for what is popular or necessary at the time. He can also do dignified, statesmanlike and reasonable if that is what the situation calls for. He currently has little political competition, so as I said I would bet my money on him becoming the next chancelor, likely in a coalition wth the Greens.

    2. While I am a supporter of the Greens I had to google their position on China, so it's not like this is a very important topic to them that they are vocal about. in fact I couldn't find any current public statements. What I did find was a 4 year old declaration saying that China is our partner and global problems can only be solved WITH China. And a post from last year about the prosecution of the Uighurs calling on the government to force German businesses to be tougher on human rights abuses in their factories in China. None of that sounds very hawkinsh to me. The Greens generally aren't very hawkish on anything. They tend to be in favor of international cooperation on basically all issues. Human rights are a cornerstone of their political identity but they have become quite pragmatic over the years. My state, Baden-Württemberg, has a Green governor. Since the automotive industry is a mayor industry here with a lot of jobs in the balance, especially if you include all the suppliers, he is known as pretty pro-automotive even though that isn't the party line.

    3. A government of CDU/CSU and Greens under a chancelor Söder seems very likely to me. The Greens having enough influence to change the country's position on China, not so much. It is too much of a complex multifaceted issue.

    4. If the EU should get its sh*t together and work on a common foreign and defense policy worthy of its name I could see a more confrontational approach to China in the mid-to-long run.


    Well, what someone was saying 4 years ago is almost irrelevant since the world has fundamentally changed in those 4 years. Plus my link on the article has a link in itself to the article that seems be be on German.

    The part, which is around 3/4 of the text in the article and goes:

    But after more than a decade of a “grand coalition” in power in Berlin, it does seem likely elections will yield a new political constellation that includes the Greens, who have emerged in recent years as the most hawkish party in Germany on China.

    To be fully open it is getting more and more likely that we will get Green Mayor here for the first time.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Virtual ghost View Post
    Well, what someone was saying 4 years ago is almost irrelevant since the world has fundamentally changed in those 4 years. Plus my link on the article has a link in itself to the article that seems be be on German.

    The part, which is around 3/4 of the text in the article and goes:




    To be fully open it is getting more and more likely that we will get Green Mayor here for the first time.
    Well, that's hy i said I couldn't find anything current.

    The link within your link is an interview with Robert Habeck, one of the two chairs of the Greens with Handelsblatt, a business magazine. When asked about China he says that individual persons (military generals, politicians) who violate human rights should be sanctioned - not a word about sancitons against the country! - and that the EU should become more independent in its infrastructure and not let in Huawei as a trojan horse for potential spaying and sabotage - his phrasing makes it clear he is shifting at least part of the duty to act towards the EU. He is also phrasing this as his personal position and doesn't mention his arty when talking about China.

    Nothing too controversial and for the most part not very specific. We'll see...
    The good life is one inspired by love and guided by knowledge. Neither love without knowledge, nor knowledge without love can produce a good life. - Bertrand Russell
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    Quote Originally Posted by Red Herring View Post
    Well, that's hy i said I couldn't find anything current.

    The link within your link is an interview with Robert Habeck, one of the two chairs of the Greens with Handelsblatt, a business magazine. When asked about China he says that individual persons (military generals, politicians) who violate human rights should be sanctioned - not a word about sancitons against the country! - and that the EU should become more independent in its infrastructure and not let in Huawei as a trojan horse for potential spaying and sabotage - his phrasing makes it clear he is shifting at least part of the duty to act towards the EU. He is also phrasing this as his personal position and doesn't mention his arty when talking about China.

    Nothing too controversial and for the most part not very specific. We'll see...

    Ok, that is good enough for me.



    Actually the reason why I became anti-china is because here they seem to directly favor various radicals in hope that the region will never truly stabilize. What then makes it vulnerable to their influence in political and economic sense. Especially since the west at this point just wouldn't have the resources to pick up all the pieces if things go down hill. What in other words means that China is getting an enclave in Europe and it is obvious why they would want that. Plus as the Hungary is getting closer to Russia that basically cuts off quite a number of countries further south east. While China's economic colonialism is pretty obvious, if someone from the other part of the world one day starts to buy your ports, airports and other infrastructure you should be skeptical by default. Plus their practices in workers rights and environment tend to be pretty bad. They are probably the main reason why workers rights imploded around the world, since they placed the bar very low and they have volume that provides impact.






    But here is something fresh.

    Albania Courts Seize TV Stations Owned by Govt Critic

    In other words there are decent chances that this is their doing. Especially since Albania was basically their closest ally in Europe during the cold war. While current PM and his party are direct continuation of that political "era".

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    Here is another example, you don't have to even read the details. The headlines make the point quite obvious.


    Serbia’s Right-Wing Shift Risks Fuelling Extremism

    Chinese and Serbian Ruling Parties Pledge ‘All-Time’ Friendship

    Serbia Imposes State of Emergency, Pleads for China’s Help

    On China’s Digital Silk Road, Serbia Has Special Place

    Bosnian Serb Commander Accused of War Crimes Becomes Serbian MP

    Etc.




    PM: We Are Sending a New Message about Relations between Croats, Serb Minority

    While our EPP has decided to play cards on smothering the relations, at least locally. The move to invite local Serb representatives to celebration of 25th anniversary of the end of the war is very bold, but generally fairly well accepted. The only locals who have a problem with this is our far right, which evidently have certain Russian influences. Therefore in the bottom line it is really love vs. hate and China is on the side of hate. Therefore here they are evidently what is known as "bad faith actor.", together with their Russian friends.



    Today it is exactly 25 years since the end of the war and therefore that is the only topic in the air. Hopefully this is will start the new era, since the most are actually fed up with narratives that are living in the past. The war belongs to history books and today could really be the turning point of historical significance.

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    Here in Germany the most important destabilizing foreign power seems to be Russia. They pretty openly support the AfD and spread loads of agit prop with the aim of weakening both Germany and the EU as a whole. They do it much more openly and aggressively than anything China does over here (China mainly buys businesses to accumulate intellectual property in the engineering sector and tries to put pressure on the government when it comes to public statements). Basically: China wants wealth and a submissive partner. Russia wants us to corrode and kill each other.
    The good life is one inspired by love and guided by knowledge. Neither love without knowledge, nor knowledge without love can produce a good life. - Bertrand Russell
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    Quote Originally Posted by Red Herring View Post
    Here in Germany the most important destabilizing foreign power seems to be Russia. They pretty openly support the AfD and spread loads of agit prop with the aim of weakening both Germany and the EU as a whole. They do it much more openly and aggressively than anything China does over here (China mainly buys businesses to accumulate intellectual property in the engineering sector and tries to put pressure on the government when it comes to public statements). Basically: China wants wealth and a submissive partner. Russia wants us to corrode and kill each other.


    As I said to Lark a while ago: this is just at the face value and one simply plays a bad cop and the other somewhat decent and ambitious cop.

    But the at the end of the day this is the same team/patrol.






    I just don't see why western people have so much of a problem in seeing this as a partnership (which is formal and signed in paper). Which is also the most natural partnership in the terms of resources, goals, political paradigms etc. Two dictators simply realized that they have enough to blow up the democratic world order and therefore they are doing it. Actually the good amount of stuff that you are buying from China is in the end made from ore and oil that are from Russia. Plus they are creating the network of allies across the world, what they are doing mostly through stabilizing dictatorships or making new ones. North Korea, the whole central Asia, Cambodia, Laos, Egypt, Hungary, Serbia, Iran, Albania, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba, Pakistan, Syria, Belarus, large chunks of Africa, to some degree Turkey and India ... etc. Wherever they have genuine and strong influence there is a dictatorship. What can't be a coincidence and therefore this circle of people can't be good trading partners (if you are serious about protecting democracy).

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    Beirut, the new Hiroshima ?






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    I've seen many people theorize this explosion was intentional. This is also very similar to the Tianjin explosion.

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