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Thread: Global Turmoil

  1. #741
    Complex paradigm Virtual ghost's Avatar
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    China slams UK ‘interference,’ pledges retaliation over Hong Kong citizenship offer

    Putin wins right to extend his rule until 2036 in landslide vote


    Hardly a surprise.




    Lukashenko’s coronavirus election

    But the problems for this regime are actually welcome. If even Russia is more democratic then your country you evidently have a problem. Although it remains open if after the end of strongman the Russia will not simply annex them.

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    Complex paradigm Virtual ghost's Avatar
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    Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus



    If we consider he is 65 this is likely to change a few things.

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    Typology Innovator Vendrah's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Virtual ghost View Post
    Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus



    If we consider he is 65 this is likely to change a few things.
    People are commenting that its fake.

    Know there is a small fail in my english language, but I will give a try into explain. He has been called to "report" into some dirty stuff he might have some involvement, and people are saying he is claiming quickly he has corona to evade that report. And, also, some people onto other powers are asking the clarification for stuff related to the chloroloquine, and he is already saying that he is improving due to chloroquine to give emphasis on the argument as chloroquine as the cure.

    Its this shitty here.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Vendrah View Post
    People are commenting that its fake.

    Know there is a small fail in my english language, but I will give a try into explain. He has been called to "report" into some dirty stuff he might have some involvement, and people are saying he is claiming quickly he has corona to evade that report. And, also, some people onto other powers are asking the clarification for stuff related to the chloroloquine, and he is already saying that he is improving due to chloroquine to give emphasis on the argument as chloroquine as the cure.

    Its this shitty here.

    Well, if he is 65 and truly infected we should pretty soon see what is going on. He went into the crowds and everywhere else during the pandemic, so it is realistic that he is infected.


    Any ideas on what happens in Brazil when the head of the state can't do his job ?

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    @Red Herring


    What is your take on this ? (if I can ask)

    Merkel looks east as ties fray between Germany and US


    I am getting impression that as the time goes by we as a continent are getting too close and interconnected with China. The mistake US did and that obviously didn't end well for them. Especially since Russia with the help of China is evidently eroding the democratic standards in eastern EU. Not to mention that at this point China is often directly pushing individual EU countries around for favors. However my local EPP isn't that much different in this regard. Is this really worth of potential extra profit on the long run ?

  6. #746
    The human tl;dr Tactical Turtleneck's Avatar
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    So how far do you think we are from a Mad Max I scenario? I'm referring solely to the first film, which is actually set right before the apocalypse, where there's still some vague semblance of law and order left hanging by a thread, but the reality is lawlessness and a bunch of small cartel-like marauder tribes led by charismatic psychopaths. Second, what would lead to this scenario? Would it be mass food and oil shortages as described in those films? Or something else? How many years might we be from this?

    What would happen if all oil reserves on the planet ran dry in 10 years? Which nations would be better equipped to survive on other energy sources, and which would descend into chaos?

    The one good outcome I can think of would be the almost immediate lessening of our carbon footprint.

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    Typology Innovator Vendrah's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Virtual ghost View Post
    Well, if he is 65 and truly infected we should pretty soon see what is going on. He went into the crowds and everywhere else during the pandemic, so it is realistic that he is infected.


    Any ideas on what happens in Brazil when the head of the state can't do his job ?
    Well, nothing much negative, because his job has been more like his "job".
    The vice is more or less the same, perhaps slightly better.
    And he actually got in the way against preventive measures about COVID: Quarantine and even masks. So, if he stops doing his "job" to get in the way, it would be better. I dont know if perhaps its too late now, since things are spread and nobody cares (I had predicted this and got angry about it in may... now I just accepted it).

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    Complex paradigm Virtual ghost's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer Ed Powell View Post
    So how far do you think we are from a Mad Max I scenario? I'm referring solely to the first film, which is actually set right before the apocalypse, where there's still some vague semblance of law and order left hanging by a thread, but the reality is lawlessness and a bunch of small cartel-like marauder tribes led by charismatic psychopaths. Second, what would lead to this scenario? Would it be mass food and oil shortages as described in those films? Or something else? How many years might we be from this?

    What would happen if all oil reserves on the planet ran dry in 10 years? Which nations would be better equipped to survive on other energy sources, and which would descend into chaos?

    The one good outcome I can think of would be the almost immediate lessening of our carbon footprint.

    Are you sure that you are in the right thread ? Ok, I will give you an answer, that you will perhaps not like.



    For me Mad Max and similar stories are made on American and generally colonialistic ideas of "unexplored lands". However not all parts of the world are like that and therefore when the crisis hits they are unlikely to fundamentally dissolve into every man for himself. Since that simply isn't the local law of the land. Plus if some countries/territories fall into chaos they will be easy target for those that preserve order. Take the obvious cases: both in Africa and US there is mostly chaos at this point. Who is profiting the most out of this and expanding the most ? China. Since in the end that kind of structure is black hole that can suck in and transform every mess it encounters on the long run. Without the same structure on the opposite side any conflict will end pretty quickly because there is no opposing structure or someone that will supply "the resistance". Without structure there is no high tech logistics and the general game plan. In these parts as soon as there was chaos somewhere someone very quickly filled in the power vacuum. Therefore the paradigms of colonial era are basically anomaly since big but fairly isolated part of the land suddenly got "opened". However that wouldn't happen again without space exploration, the world is what it is at this point. In other words since we all live in a global village no one is really isolated anymore. Therefore if there is no real counter force someone will walk in pretty quickly.



    Regarding oil, my metropolitan area has very well developed public transportation system that runs on electricity and to some degree natural gas. Therefore the city would be running if there is no oil suddenly. After all to some corners of the city you can't go with the car since it is forbidden and in some others parking is deliberately very expensive, so that people don't go there with a car. Local authorities are even setting up mass infrastructure for bicycles in order to phase out the cars. Plus there is a nuclear plant not that far from the city. Therefore we can live with mass reductions in oil supply if we have to. Although Russia as the main supplier of energy wouldn't run out of it anytime soon. Nether the local distributors or providers are privately owned companies so I doubt that anything can really shake this fundamentally. In general countries with oil or countries that have close ties with countries that have oil are more resistant to oil related problems.



    Therefore if the world is going towards Mad Max landscape it is unlikely that this will happen everywhere and stay like this. Since the more places collapse the faster we will move towards some kind of a global government. Which wouldn't have real opposition. What typical American doesn't understand is that there is no end of the world going on right now, with exceptions of some environmental issues. What they are seeing around them is for the most part just the collapse of the country's global game plan. When I was hiding from the airstrikes as a kid, while the constitution and economy collapsed that looked as the end of the world. While at the time you were probably going to school and doing homework. Therefore today you have a mess at home and think that it is surely the end of the world, while in practice it isn't. Here we have seen much much darker days than today. Therefore the only real difference here is that your mess will change global order much more than mine did. However that returns us to the talk about "the more countries crash the faster we will get to political singularity". For me Mad Max was never a realistic option, especially on long run. As I said here we had 6 constitutions over the last few generations and neither crash resulted with mad max. Since we lack the culture to be like that. But in US that is realistic possibility not so far down the road, since the people don't have collective memory of collapse and how to handle it. However your countrymen are probably more qualified to go into details about how this could play out in practice than me.

  9. #749
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    Quote Originally Posted by Virtual ghost View Post
    @Red Herring


    What is your take on this ? (if I can ask)

    Merkel looks east as ties fray between Germany and US


    I am getting impression that as the time goes by we as a continent are getting too close and interconnected with China. The mistake US did and that obviously didn't end well for them. Especially since Russia with the help of China is evidently eroding the democratic standards in eastern EU. Not to mention that at this point China is often directly pushing individual EU countries around for favors. However my local EPP isn't that much different in this regard. Is this really worth of potential extra profit on the long run ?
    Germany's China policy is often summarized as "panda cuddling". The reasons are pretty clear. 1. Germany sees itself as a midsized power or regional power that relies on trade and cooperation to achieve peace, stability and security. 2. Germany is an export country and needs good relations to survive economically. 3. While the USA are culturally and politically closer than China or Russia, Germany is usually trying to be on good terms with everybody for the above named reasons. We try to avoid trade wars and tend to believe in "change through rapprochement" (Brandt) and "change through trade" (Schröder) rather than open conflict. Not because we are good people but because we are medium sized and export dependent (well, that and there really is no interest in conflict in the population).

    Regarding Russia Germany often takes the position of mediator (or sees itself as such). Regarding China we do see the problems bzt mostly feel that there are few alternatives.

    Not being a superpower (and with the EU still not willing to fulfill its potential) we also see China more as a problematic large partner rather than a competitor.

    I myself share the criticism of the human rights conditions, Hongkong policy, etc but think China's interest in power and prosperity is understandable and just as legitimate as that of any other nation. I blame them for their human rights issues, not for their ambition (which is often vilified in the West. German media often says things like "Beware of China - they want influence!" Well, doh, who wouldn't? It smacks of colonialism to assume that power and wealth will forever remain in the same hands.

    You could say that it's naive to believe that you can have a positive influence on someone bigger through rapprovh. However open conflict is not an option and the USA is an ever increasingly unstable, hostile and unreliable partner.

    Tl/dr: I think Merkel is doing the right thing.
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    Addendum: The solution, in my view would be the same solution I usually proposes to many other political problems : a stronger, more closely coordinated EU. We need to work together or tge superpowers will eat US for breakfast.
    The good life is one inspired by love and guided by knowledge. Neither love without knowledge, nor knowledge without love can produce a good life. - Bertrand Russell
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