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2020 Democratic Party primary thread

Doctor Cringelord

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The caucus is such an outdated process anyway. I realize it’s become “tradition”, but maybe it’s time for Iowa to move from the 19th century into the present

For that matter, I hope DNC has learned from their mistakes. In 2016 there were instances of voting precincts being unable to handle the high primary turnout (conveniently happening in some places with high support for Bernie). Also, that bullshit with Bill Clinton bringing a megaphone to some polls and basically shutting them down for hours despite some people there being on very short breaks from work, then walking around and “persuading” people to pull the lever for Hillary. Let’s not have any of that type of crap
 

Virtual ghost

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To continue:


Polish government is very anti gay and if they have to talk to gay person about the defense from Russia they may decide to change a few positions. If anything just to save their public image that keeps them in power. In Romania ex-communists passed the law that bans gay marriage by constitution. In my place we had a referendum about gay marriage and now it is forbidden by constitution, therefore it is possible to push it only by renaming it. Russia friendly Orban will probably be even more pro-russian after this. Etc. Plus most of the countries in these parts have a decent diaspora in the Midwest, which is problematic region for the democrats.


In geopolitical sense Pete vs. Trump would be a disaster. That is perhaps politically incorrect but the problem seem to be there.





 

Red Herring

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Occam's razor: don't assume malignant intention where incompetence suffices as an explanation!
 

Virtual ghost

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Occam's razor: don't assume malignant intention where incompetence suffices as an explanation!


But that is exactly the problem.
Gerrymandering is proven practice and from that to what supposedly happened isn't that far. It probably was a mistake but when tensions are this high you just can't count on calming the tensions.
 

Doctor Cringelord

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To continue:


Polish government is very anti gay and if they have to talk to gay person about the defense from Russia they may decide to change a few positions. If anything just to save their public image that keeps them in power. In Romania ex-communists passed the law that bans gay marriage by constitution. In my place we had a referendum about gay marriage and now it is forbidden by constitution, therefore it is possible to push it only by renaming it. Russia friendly Orban will probably be even more pro-russian after this. Etc. Plus most of the countries in these parts have a decent diaspora in the Midwest, which is problematic region for the democrats.


In geopolitical sense Pete vs. Trump would be a disaster. That is perhaps politically incorrect but the problem seem to be there.






Party in Maaaaaltaaaa
 

rav3n

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Yep, and it's going to end the same way too
Part of me agrees since it doesn't have any faith in the electorate since 2016. On the other hand, the electorate showed up in 2018 and evidenced their disapproval of the GOP and Trump by sweeping out the garbage from the House.
 

Virtual ghost

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Yes, this is another 2016. Trump is Trump, Bernie is Bernie, so the only question is who will be Hillary. However we will find out this soon.
 

Julius_Van_Der_Beak

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Yes, this is another 2016. Trump is Trump, Bernie is Bernie, so the only question is who will be Hillary. However we will find out this soon.

Buttigieg, I think.

Biden's performance in Iowa was atrocious (and will not change once the last of the results trickles in). Buttigieg can tap into the same voters, with the exception of South Carolina. Biden will probably do well enough there to keep him afloat for a bit. My ideal scenario is that he sticks in there for a long enough time to act as a constant source of competition for Buttigieg, and that Warren drops out fairly quickly.

However, I do think Buttigieg could be a successful general election candidate in the Obama mold, although I haven't seen anything yet to suggest he wouldn't have the same weaknesses in the office as Obama. However, I admit that I have not researched him a great deal and am just articulating my general impression. I'd be happy to entertain evidence to the contrary.

I don't think candidates who fail in both Iowa and Hew Hampshire usually make it for the long haul, although Biden may clean up in a few Southern states that would end up voting for Trump in the general. The fact that Biden is barely competitive in Iowa is not a great sign for his campaign, although probably a good sign for the country.
 

Julius_Van_Der_Beak

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To continue:


Polish government is very anti gay and if they have to talk to gay person about the defense from Russia they may decide to change a few positions. If anything just to save their public image that keeps them in power. In Romania ex-communists passed the law that bans gay marriage by constitution. In my place we had a referendum about gay marriage and now it is forbidden by constitution, therefore it is possible to push it only by renaming it. Russia friendly Orban will probably be even more pro-russian after this. Etc. Plus most of the countries in these parts have a decent diaspora in the Midwest, which is problematic region for the democrats.


In geopolitical sense Pete vs. Trump would be a disaster. That is perhaps politically incorrect but the problem seem to be there.






Interesting to me that Greece has improved but Italy has gotten worse. Perhaps that means that Golden Dawn is dying, since neo-fascism is usually tied up with gender and sexuality issues except for when they want to complain about how Muslim immigrants aren't compatible with Western values.
 

Julius_Van_Der_Beak

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For the first time I've looked at the general election electoral map.
.
Let's start with Bernie winning all the states Clinton won. While there's a dearth of polls, he's polling well in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan (and I definitely understand why). Those states are all he needs to win the electoral college. He doesn't need Ohio (although I think it's a possibility for him), he doesn't need Florida.

I gotta say, the math looks pretty good. If he wins the nomination, we could very well have our first socialist President. :)

Hillary was such a dumbass to take the "Rust belt" for granted in favor of Arizona and Georgia.
 

ceecee

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For the first time I've looked at the general election electoral map.
.
Let's start with Bernie winning all the states Clinton won. While there's a dearth of polls, he's polling well in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Those states are all he needs to win the electoral college. He doesn't need Ohio (although I think it's a possibility for him), he doesn't need Florida.

I gotta say, the math looks pretty good. If he wins the nomination, we could very well have our first socialist President. :)

All I will say is I've been canvassing once a week with the DSA since last fall. In Michigan. West Michigan. People have no idea what's coming.
 

Julius_Van_Der_Beak

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All I will say is I've been canvassing once a week with the DSA since last fall. In Michigan. West Michigan. People have no idea what's coming.

Hillary was such a dumbass to take the "Rust belt" for granted in favor of Arizona and Georgia. I thought Georgia particularly was a long shot, and her focus on it reeked of overconfidence.

I've made it a New Year's Resolution to get involved with the DSA alongside the other group I've been working with (although it wouldn't surprise me if there was overlap).
 

Jaguar

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To be open with you I see all of this from a different perspective. Judging by what I saw once again one candidate won the popular vote and the other got most delegates at this point. For me this is legalized conspiracy that constantly repeats and from that point of view it is ok to fight fire with fire. Because at this point all of this is mud wrestling, it shouldn't be but it is.





Plus to be open and politically incorrect I find Pete to be the most dangerous candidate on the table for the country. It is another Trump style disaster internally and externally because his economic views and his sexuality are a practical problem. I don't hate gay people but there is a problem here.



Internally he is likely to continue very strong divisions while holding general status quo. Plus his sexuality will surely hold MAGA crowd tightly together even if Trump is out of office.

However externally is where the real problem is. Pete represents just about everything my part of the world sees as "what is wrong with the west", from clear capitalism to homosexuality. However as my posts suggest here we have a surge of Russian influence and if a gay person becomes new POTUS that will surely just speed this up. In the countries around Homosexuality isn't liked and even left wing parties can make laws that make sure it is never legalized. Russia even openly attacks with claims "They want to legalize gay marriage" and I saw this in Ukraine for example. Therefore with Pete entire Eastern EU will even more look east. Another problem are Muslim countries because there being gay gives you a death sentence. How will US keep it's falling influence in the middle east with a gay person is something I am not sure of, especially since the influence of Russia and China is growing even regardless of this. However with the Middle East there is no Petro-dollar Plus China and various third world dictators aren't too opened about this either if I am not mistaken. A few liberal countries will be very happy about this but those like USA anyway for the most part.




While his views on economy can make many in USA happy, he seem to represent just about everything against people all around the world are protesting relentlessly. In some countries there are even open rebellions over "modern ways how to do economy" and there is plenty of room for "loss of influence" in this sphere. So to be fully open with you Jag, in my part of the world we used to torture and kill people with your world views and now more and more people again wants to go somewhere in that direction. Therefore I think it is a bad idea to add extra gasoline into what is already a mess. POTUS directly and indirectly sets global paradigms, however what Pete and similar people want is simply the red flag to countless people. The longest protest in my country was done by veterans/far right over their benefits and healthcare, which lasted something over a year. In other word if "something" were to happen to our socialized healthcare due to pressures and global changes of paradigms there will probably be another revolution. After all these are the same people who won the independence war and working people will join them as well as retired people. However this pretty much works for this whole part of the world and which will in this case turn towards Russia. Since it doesn't want too free market, immigration, gay marriage ... etc.



Therefore since this is already mud wrestling I actually approve most moves. For me he and his base are another Trump scale problem that should be countered with pretty much all means but violence.


Sorry. :shrug:

The gap in understanding between your country and the USA is too big here. Forget it. Not to mention, your post didn't even address the conspiracy theory rubbish going on in the USA which I was posting about to begin with.
 

Jaguar

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Ya know, people can misinterpret a story without being influenced by Russian bots. Just saying.

It's an easy enough mistake to make.

I don't understand how people can see 2016 as being determined through foreign interference and then somehow act like the system has integrity that's beyond questioning. It's not like the Democratic establishment helps matters any in this regard by making no secret of their disdain for one of the more popular candidates. Perhaps if they did't do that, there wouldn't be such an issue with people getting carried away with stories like this.

Ironically enough, seeing the work of Russian bots in everything seems kind of like a conspiracy, too.

There's no excuse for making up crazy, conspiracy shit. And that includes inside this forum.
 

SearchingforPeace

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Just heard on the radio that DNC Perez is calling for a canvassing of the Iowa caucus, alleging significant errors and irregularities
 
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