2020 Democratic Party primary thread

[Totenkindly]

Yeah, Biff is like a poor version of Trump who washes cars

It hasn't really been a secret.
'Back to the Future' Writer: Biff Is Donald Trump - Rolling Stone

 

[Jaguar]

It seems that Warren managed to blew it with stupid and imprecise answers.

Warren sank to third place from first after seeing her support drop to 14 percent from 28 percent in October.

Buttigieg surges to second place behind Biden as Warren sinks: poll | TheHill
Warren nosedives in new nationwide poll - POLITICO

 

[Tellenbach]

November's Monmouth University Poll

While preferences may not be locked in, few Democratic voters (16%) say they would like to see another candidate in the running for their party’s nomination. The vast majority (74%) say they are satisfied with the current field.

This is shocking; I didn't think Dem voters would be satisfied with Biden/Warren/Sanders, but the poll says otherwise.

The current positions (Biden - 1st place, Warren -2nd place, Sanders - 3rd place) seem largely based on name recognition. A great many registered voters still don't know Mayor Pete and Kamala Harris. I think it's still too early. People will start hopping on bandwagons after the first few primaries.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Warren sank to third place from first after seeing her support drop to 14 percent from 28 percent in October.

Buttigieg surges to second place behind Biden as Warren sinks: poll | TheHill
Warren nosedives in new nationwide poll - POLITICO

These are maybe the headlines but I really doubt that Buttigieg is actually second. Since that would basically mean that the whole "progressive" scene imploded or whatever and I just don't see that. Especially if Buttigieg is the one that throws the killing punch in draining the votes.


Speaking of the guy I never realized the whole hype about him, especially if we consider the whole electability argument. Almost no black support, little to no progressive support, does anyone think this guy looks as someone that can stand up to Putin or China, or the guy that will re-industrialize the country. I think he said Climate change isn't real, numbers against Trump aren't that great, there is a few nasty scandals in the background ... etc. I know some will perhaps hate me for this but in my book the guy is a disaster.


Biden looks as a solid candidate next to him.

 

[Doctor Cringelord]

Yeah I’m not a Biden fan but Pete looks more like a school superintendent than a President. Sorry, not sorry.

 

[Doctor Cringelord]

Seriously if these are the front runners now, I don’t know if I can do this.

 

[Nicodemus]

[1] Almost no black support, [2] little to no progressive support, [3] does anyone think this guy looks as someone that can stand up to Putin or China, [4] or the guy that will re-industrialize the country. [5] I think he said Climate change isn't real, [6] numbers against Trump aren't that great, [7] there is a few nasty scandals in the background ... etc. I know some will perhaps hate me for this but in my book the guy is a disaster.

Are you a Russian troll now?

1. True, but subject to change if he were to become better known as the field narrows and Biden were to drop out.
2. Perhaps compared with Warren, but not in real terms. He goes for the middle of the road, as did pretty much every winning Democrat in a presidential race since Roosevelt.
3. Absolutely. Why not? Because he is relatively young? Sure beats Trump's old, dumb, and corrupt.
4. He has a better track record of modernization than any of the other viable candidates.
5. Have you watched any of his talks or debate performances?
6. Mostly a matter of how well he is known at the moment, I would say.
7. Name one. The Tea Party one is made of thin air: He says the same thing about Republicans today, for the same, valid reason: They are not all evil, many of them are just stupid.

Biden looks as a solid candidate next to him.

Again, have you ever watched a debate? Biden looks like he is disintegrating, as he has in every previous presidential race he ever joined.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Are you a Russian troll now?

Since when are Russian trolls talking about standing up to Putin or China and say relatively nice things about Biden ?

[*]True, but subject to change if he were to become better known as the field narrows and Biden were to drop out.

Blacks are relatively socially conservative in many cases and therefore he has a few "red flags". After all his pretty low approval among Blacks almost surely isn't a coincidence. It isn't that he isn't campaigning for months.

[*]Perhaps compared with Warren, but not in real terms. He goes for the middle of the road, as did pretty much every winning Democrat in a presidential race since Roosevelt.

The point was that he may lose plenty of working class in the general or Obama-Trump voters. What only adds to the the deficit with blacks.
Electoral college, some people simply staying home ... and in US that quickly snowballs.

[*]Absolutely. Why not? Because he is relatively young? Sure beats Trump's old, dumb, and corrupt.

I admit that I don't know his whole story but what are exactly his foreign policy competencies ? He just doesn't give me "commander in chef vibe", he just doesn't. While on the other hand US is entering one of the key parts in it's history when it comes to "world stage". Old, dumb, and corrupt - his fans don't seem to mind (and there is still a decent amount of them). Trump wouldn't get far in Europe but the elections are run by different standards than those in Europe.

[*]He has a better track record of modernization than any of the other viable candidates.

What type of modernization ? On the other hand re-industrialization of the country isn't necessarily modernization. In most causes it is applying and fixing what you have. He strikes me much more as a seller than engineer. What implies he will have wrong opinions on trade. Countries like China sucked in almost all real concrete industry by large part because the fist world simply didn't want to deal with the complexity of manufacture and therefore it decided to invest various more intellectual and "trendy/modern" stuff. What in the end made it pretty dependent in the terms of basic needs.

[*]Have you watched any of his talks or debate performances?

Some and I am just not inspired by the guy. Plus in the last debate he got slapped regarding foreign policy.

[*]Mostly a matter of how well he is known at the moment, I would say.

I am not saying he can't possibly win but he surely is a gamble since many groups that are important to democratic base will have certain problems with him. I would say there are safer bets than him.

[*]Name one. The Tea Party one is made of thin air: He says the same thing about Republicans today, for the same, valid reason: They are not all evil, many of them are just stupid.

That was one. There was also racism thing (which sticks in USA).

Random video about it.

This just doesn't look very presidential. (and shows that he has a "problem" with winning black voters).


Plus there was a video about climate change not being a problem. I am not keeping the score on the guy to know his every strength or flaw but the general vibe just doesn't give me confidence. He is a material for a Mayor, Governor or Congressman not President. (in my book)

Again, have you ever watched a debate? Biden looks like he is disintegrating, as he has in every previous presidential race he ever joined.

Yes.
The point was that I think of him as worse candidate than Biden. Not that Biden is absolutely "God given".

 

[Virtual ghost]

He has the same problem as Warren or Harris, he smells "elitism" and that isn't too popular at the moment.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Aw fuck, we're getting Biden aren't we? And he just seems to be phoning this damn thing in.

People should get used to the idea of Trump being re-elected.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Aw fuck, we're getting Biden aren't we? And he just seems to be phoning this damn thing in.

People should get used to the idea of Trump being re-elected.

I think you will probably get Biden (maayybbee Bernie) if something big doesn't happen. However what will happen in GE is still open. (after all a years is long time in politics)

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

I think you will probably get Biden (maayybbee Bernie) if something big doesn't happen. However what will happen in GE is still open. (after all a years is long time in politics)

Trump's approval ratings would have to sink by a lot for Biden to be able to pull it off. That's a big if....

Right now, Trump has the same approval ratings as Obama by this point in his first term.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Trump's approval ratings would have to sink by a lot for Biden to be able to pull it off. That's a big if....

Right now, Trump has the same approval ratings as Obama by this point in his first term.

And Hillary was certain winner until it suddenly wasn't. You can't make 100% certain claims in stuff like elections (especially if you count how America does them).
GE of 2020 is still wide open for both parties.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

And Hillary was certain winner until it suddenly wasn't. You can't make 100% certain claims in stuff like elections (especially if you count how America does them).
GE of 2020 is still wide open for both parties.

I fear Biden has the mentality of "I can't possibly lose this" which is same mentality Hillary had. I don't think underestimating Trump and overestimating the degree of importance American voters place on "norms" or "perception in the eyes of the world" is a winning strategy. Yet, I'm sure Biden will do all of that.

 

[Virtual ghost]

I fear Biden has the mentality of "I can't possibly lose this" which is same mentality Hillary had. I don't think underestimating Trump and overestimating the degree of importance American voters place on "norms" or "perception in the eyes of the world" is a winning strategy. Yet, I'm sure Biden will do all of that.

Honestly ?

I think that this time "establishment" will be more careful, many donors lost money and nerves due to 2016. Maybe they wouldn't win but they will surely be more careful this time.
Plus many of those that stayed at home in 2016 probably wouldn't in 2020. Since the Trump is no longer unknown factor that can't win and therefore worth of experimenting. Plus there is supreme court factor.


However we are still too far out to make a educated guess on GE. Especially since the primary voting didn't even start yet.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Oh, and I'd be happy with Bernie. If this is the unprecedented crisis of American democracy people are making it out to be, time for more extreme solutions, since the milquetoast approach hasn't exactly proven effective against Trump or the Republican party at large.

If it isn't an unprecedented crisis of American democracy, then I could maybe justify supporting the primary campaign of someone who has enabled the most destructive Republican policies of the new millenium and who hasn't even bothered to show up at a lot of campaign events a lot of other people in the field have participated in. How do you know someone like that won't buckle under the pressure and seek a "bipartisan" way of continuing Trump's bullshit policies?

 

[Jaguar]

I fear Biden has the mentality of "I can't possibly lose this" which is same mentality Hillary had. I don't think underestimating Trump and overestimating the degree of importance American voters place on "norms" or "perception in the eyes of the world" is a winning strategy. Yet, I'm sure Biden will do all of that.

Translated: A FICO score of 400 is fine for the U.S. Government. Credibility is overrated. Screw it.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Translated: A FICO score of 400 is fine for the U.S. Government. Credibility is overrated. Screw it.

It was the "pragmatists" that lost the election in the first place. I don't think it's a good idea to try it a second time. If this election is unprecedented, we can't risk it.

 

[Jaguar]

It was the "pragmatists" that lost the election in the first place. I don't think it's a good idea to try it a second time. If this election is unprecedented, we can't risk it.

Hillary Clinton has been loathed by many on both sides of the aisle since the 1990's. The opposite has been true of Biden - he has been liked and trusted on both sides of the aisle for decades. What are you - a whippersnapper?

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Hillary Clinton has been loathed by many on both sides of the aisle since the 1990's. The opposite has been true of Biden - he has been liked and trusted on both sides of the aisle for decades.

Hope you're right.