I don't have much of an opinion on whether or not there is a god or if there are gods, but it'd be a nicer existence than a godless one. It'd imply that there is life after death, which I want to believe in.
But ignoring the "I don't believe in god because I don't know if I'm right" angle, I like to think that we reincarnate until we live a life that was fulfilling and when we finally do, we go to heaven. I do not believe in hell and I do not believe in organized religion in that there are things a god would enable us to do and then punish us for. I sincerely believe hell was a concept invented by organized religion to make people scared of god instead of loving god, because fear is a much better marketing tool than love.
I'm not sure that an afterlife is guaranteed by the existence of God or belief in his existence or his having an interest or investment in the fortunes of humanity, I think its possible to form opinions, or even beliefs, about the same, on the basis of tradition, scriptures, miracles, saints, scholars and even personal discernment or conversion experiences but I really do not believe its possible to know this.
I had a conversation with someone who is a very, very committed evangelical protestant, former RC, and solo scripturalist too, his belief boiled down to "this I know because the bible tells me so", at which point I sort of slowly disengaged because the conversation becomes circular and pointless, my point at the time was that the bible is the reported teachings and word of God, the history of the "higher criticism phase", during which solo scripture protestants went to the middle east and discovered the earliest existing bibles or bible sources and discovered a remarkable diversity, disparity and even fanciful gibberish really and truly ought to have put the nail in the coffin of solo scriptural beliefs or congregations. Unfortunately it just sparked atheism and secularism instead.
Though I really do not believe that it can be known for certain, at least not to any but a very, very, very few who will, I believe, suffer by or for that knowledge. The Onion article which featured Michelangelo's painting and the headline "God wonders what happens to humans when they die" summed the point up well for me. Lots of evidence exists that early Jewish believers did not believe in an after life or heaven or hell or simply did not give much thought to it, they merely stated what they knew, that your bones would be gathered to your ancestors, which meant that literally your bones would be added to the pile in the basement. Shaol and other beliefs in an after life or a utopian end of history were all added later (Darren Brown in a book on happiness which concludes stoicism is not a bad idea has pointed out, as a lot of other atheists have started to do, that marxism and a lot of other utopianism of one sort or another borrow much from that religious turn of mind).
For my part I actually believe that some of the early mystics which suggested that all you should do is "walk this earth and know that God is God", meaning that no earthly being could claim to be God, that God himself is largely how Moses Maimonides thought he was, ie noncorporeal, only to be known by what he is not, negative theology and all that, and to give careful thought to the reality that "earth and what is in it is the prize" rather than anything else, least of all "pie in the sky", the promise made for so long to those actually starving in the present, temporal reality. I hope for something more, as prayed in my own tradition, but hope is not to know this, hope is just some faith (yes, it is in a Smashing Pumpkins song, what can I say Melancholy and The Infinite Sadness is full of references unknown to the listeners).
Quantum immortality, to me, appears plausible, that does not mean it is proven, however, if it is fact then it would be a state of reincarnation as you describe. I personally do not believe that reincarnation is impossible, it sounds like purgatory to me, some of the thinking in pure land buddhism reads remarkably similarly to some Christian beliefs among the "desert fathers", ie meditating hermits of the Christian tradition.
I dont believe that hell is a marketing ploy at all, I think, like bliss or heaven, people can experience hell in this life or the next, the thing about hell is that its separation from God, estrangement or alienation from God, which can involve some degree of choice and therefore if there are any locks on the gates of hell then the keys are on the inside, held by all the people who are there. I hope its obvious I'm talking in metaphor.
There are poems and myths about heaven and hell that I've heard which have the ring of wisdom too, one is irish about a protestant who goes to heaven only to discover its a culturally irish and RCC place, they decide to become a ghost rather than go there, another is a story about Hitler going to heaven and he loves the place until he discovers that other than him everyone there is a Jew and he then decides he must be in hell but nothing else has changed about the place. There also is the story about someone visiting hell from this life and discovers everyone is starving but food is plentiful, they can only eat it with oversize spoons which cant reach their mouths, they then go to heaven and discover the exact same situation but people are feeding each other, you see?
Though those stories or analogies I think relate more to how to act while we are alive. I dont like discussions of heaven or hell for the most part because they are projections of ideas about needs and just desserts on to the infinite or God, which is presumptuous in the extreme.
The whole thing about institutionalised or organised religion is I think its a kind of red herring, do you mean when you say that you dont like them that disorganised, spontaneous or chaotic religion is preferrable? It can be more terroristic or flawed, would the Branch Davidians Compound be preferable to the Vatican or Messiah Syndrome experienced by visitors to the holy land/Jerusalem be more valid than a committed sunday church goer? Its like that old rubic response to anarchists that law is not worse than the primitive anarchy that precedes it or a bunch of discussions about AD&D alignment, you know lawful, neutral, chaotic.
